Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- The FXDD Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- Forex Midday Report - Feb 26
- ….and EURUSD falls sharply
- EURUSD squeezes higher.
- EURUSD tests the 61.8% retracement of the 2 week range
- GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at the 1.5229 level
- If GBPUSD is going to squeeze higher 1.5179 needs to give way above.
- USDJPY falls on the weaker housing data
| The FXDD Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 26 Feb 2010 05:18 PM PST |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2010 09:30 AM PST |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2010 09:30 AM PST
I guess it is Friday and it is snowing and staffs might be light and London is gone, but the EURUSD just took a nose dive to the downside. The price action fell through our support level at the 1.3625/27 level and all the way down to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart That level comes in at 1.3601 and the price bottomed at 1.3603. At least dip buyers against are key moving average are still in the office. The bounce has moved up off the support level, but now has the 1.3627 level as topside resistance. The holding of the 100 bar MA is positive, the breaking and sharp fall below 1.3627 is not. A move back above this level is needed to confirm the skittish bullish bias (we are still above the 100 bar moving averages on the 5 minute and hourly charts) but of course, no one likes to see the choppy conditions. Good news for the bears (sort of). Bad news for the corrective bulls. |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2010 08:29 AM PST
The EURUSD continues the squeeze higher as some of the worry about the Greek situation permeates into the market. There is a rumor of a German owned back providing relief. This, coupled with Friday squaring, has the EURUSD the currency of choice - to the upside.
With the market now above the 100 and 200 hour MA, where can the pair go? If the price is able to hold above support levels like the 1.3627 level and the 200 hour MA at the 1.3588 level, the price does have the potential to extend toward the 1.3800 level and then the 1.3878 level. The 1.3800 level is the 50% midpoint of the 2009 trading range (see chart below). The 1.5878 level is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2010 high of 1.4579 (see chart above).
When the market turns the potential can take traders by surprise. However, the EURUSD has moved down over 1100 pips since January and a simple correction of 300-400 pips is not out of the question. It is important to follow the technicals as nothing is guaranteed. So the price and key levels like moving averages will tell the story. That story started yesterday when the price showed signs of bottoming and today, the stories chapters are unwinding further (see prior post from yesterday and watch the Rebroadcast of the webinar). |
| EURUSD tests the 61.8% retracement of the 2 week range Posted: 26 Feb 2010 08:07 AM PST
The level comes in sta 1.3659. The high reached 1.3664. The support now comes in at 1.3620 which is the midpoint of the same two week high to low trading range. |
| GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at the 1.5229 level Posted: 26 Feb 2010 07:39 AM PST
Support now at 1.5213 and 1.5205 (prior high) . A move below these levels should pressure the pair again. A move above 100 hour MA at the 1.5229 level should push the pair higher with 1.5248 area the next target on the upside. This is the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above). |
| If GBPUSD is going to squeeze higher 1.5179 needs to give way above. Posted: 26 Feb 2010 07:23 AM PST
It is always tempting to try a bottom but in order to do it, you need something to lean against and some targets to get through. The 1.5162 level in the 5 minute chart above gives a bottom formation at 1.5162, but the 1.5179 level needs to breached on the topside. From there a move to 1.5205 ish could be expected but beware. The bias is still bearish so be careful. |
| USDJPY falls on the weaker housing data Posted: 26 Feb 2010 07:07 AM PST
The USDJPY has fallen on the weaker housing data. The data is just not good and with the winding down of government purchases of mortgage securities, one has to wonder how bank lending will proceed going forward. The low for the day was 89.01. The low from yesterday afternoon after the move higher off the low came in at the 89.04 level. This area will now become upside resistance for the pair. The low yesterday at 88.79 area needs to be broken on the downside to confirm further pressure.
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