Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Greece reports measures to deal with debt issues
- US Wholesale Inventories rise by +0.8%
- AUDUSD boosted higher today. Watching 0.8733 and 0.8714
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 9
- ECB Nowotney on wires. Discusses no bailout clause.
- USDJPY moves higher. Watch the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart
- EURUSD moves above the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement level on hourly
- GBPUSD continues in its consolidation up and down range.
- February 9 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- UK Trade Balance
- Gbp/Usd trading below 1.5600
- Sterling approaches hourly resistance
- German Final CPI & Trade Balance
- 2-9 Economic Calendar
| Greece reports measures to deal with debt issues Posted: 09 Feb 2010 07:28 AM PST Including:
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| US Wholesale Inventories rise by +0.8% Posted: 09 Feb 2010 07:02 AM PST Sales rise by an equal 0.8%. The Stocks/Sales ratio falls to 1.12 months from 1.14 months IBD/TIPP Investor Confidence falls to 46.8 from 48.8 in January. Less than expectations. |
| AUDUSD boosted higher today. Watching 0.8733 and 0.8714 Posted: 09 Feb 2010 06:32 AM PST
Comments from RBA Stevens earlier today whereby he commented that rates may need to be raised to stop bubbles, sent the AUDUSD higher today. The price was able to push above the 100 hour MA (currently at 0.8714) in the NY session, but has come off a bit as the dollar corrects on the EU/Greece on again/off again rollercoaster (see Nowotney Comment). From a technical perspective, however, as long as the price remains above the 100 hour MA, the targets above are the 61.8 of the move down from the Feb 3rd high at the 0.8787 and the 200 hour MA at the 0.8800 level currently. There is also consolidation lows at this area from February 4th which should act as profit taking resistance. Looking at the longer term daily chart, the price has also moved above the low from December which came in at the 0.8733 level today. Watch this level today. If the price can remain above this level it could lead to a springboard to the upside. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the January high at 0.9328 comes in at the 0.8864. This would be another upside target as long as the support levels outlined above are maintained *(0.8733 and 0.8712). Be aware.
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| Posted: 09 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Online training today at 4pm New York Time http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars to sign up. |
| ECB Nowotney on wires. Discusses no bailout clause. Posted: 09 Feb 2010 05:24 AM PST
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| USDJPY moves higher. Watch the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart Posted: 09 Feb 2010 05:19 AM PST
The USDJPY was consolidating in a narrow trading range and at the 89.18 to 89.45 level yesterday. The 100 and 200 bar moving averages converged with the price and this eventually leads to a move away from the consolidation area. The price has moved higher albeit at a modest pace as the flight into the “riskier pairs” moved the USDJPY higher.
The price has been able to maintain a level above the 100 bar MA with a test in the London session. We will continue to watch this moving average in today’s trade as well. The level comes in at the 89.58 level currently. A move below would turn the bias back down, but until that time, the bias remains bullish for the pair. The next target for the pair comes in at the 89.82 level where the 100 hour MA is located. A break of this level should see a move toward the 200 bar moving average on the same chart at the 90.08 level.
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| EURUSD moves above the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement level on hourly Posted: 09 Feb 2010 04:58 AM PST
The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.3753 level. The 38.2% retracement comes in at the 1.3753 level as well. The break above triggered stop buying. This pushed the price up to the 1.3773 level. Now the price should have support at the 1.3753 level. A move back below the 1.3744 level (the prior high for today) would muddy the water, but the bias at the moment at least is back to the upside. The next target would be the 1.3805 level which is the 50% retracement of the same move down from the Feb 3rd low to the low reached on Friday the 5th of February. |
| GBPUSD continues in its consolidation up and down range. Posted: 09 Feb 2010 04:48 AM PST
The GBPUSD has now consolidated the move lower for nearly 2 days now. The price has a floor at the 1.5533/50 region and a ceiling at the 1.5648-59 area. The consolidation comes after the most recent trend move which saw the GBPUSD move down from a high of 1.6068 to the low at 1.5533. The consolidation/non-trend period is not unusual. It allows the market moving averages - like the 100 hour moving average to start it’s catch up to the market price. Currently, the 100 bar MA is at the 1.5727 and moving lower at a pace of 4 pips an hour. In 24 hours that would put the moving average down at 1.5633.
In early NY trade, the market has come in and bought GBPUSD back up from the floor area. This has continued the up and down nature of the pair over the last two days. There should be some resistance at the 1.5636 area where highs and low from the last few days have occurred. Above is the high over the consolidation period at the 1.5658. Support now comes in at 1.5604 which is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart above). The 1.5596 is the midpoint of the 2 day range and will also be a key level to eye today. |
| February 9 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 09 Feb 2010 04:19 AM PST |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2010 01:32 AM PST UK Trade Balance came in at -7.3B, weaker than the -6.6B and prior reading of -6.8B. No major market reaction to news as Gbp/Usd trades either side of 1.5600. |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2010 01:17 AM PST As stated in an earlier post, Gbp/Usd found resistance up at 1.5650 and has subsequently come off to trade below 1.5600. The pair has traded down to 1.5582. If this move can continue we should see some support around 1.5565-70 level. A break below should bring Gbp/Usd down to 1.5530-40 area. A break back above 1.5600 should send the pair up to 1.5625-30.
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| Sterling approaches hourly resistance Posted: 08 Feb 2010 11:38 PM PST Gbp/Usd is approaching 1.5650, which should act as a form of resistance. The chart below shows a steady move up to this level over the last 8 hours. The 61.8% fibo lies at 1.5647 with a trendline of recent hourly highs at 1.5650 nearby. If the pair can break though we may be headed for 1.5715-20. If it holds a move below 1.5600 is likely.
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| German Final CPI & Trade Balance Posted: 08 Feb 2010 11:06 PM PST German Final CPI came in as expected at -0.6%. This figure normally does not have much market impact. The Trade Balance came in at 16.7B, stronger than the 14.8B expected but slightly weaker than the prior reading of 17.2B. Eur/Usd did make a new session high of 1.3728 just prior to release of the trade balance figure and has since paired back gains to 1.3710. |
| Posted: 08 Feb 2010 08:38 PM PST
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Says ECB has a strict no bailout clause. As a result, Greece will have to bail themselves out. The EURUSD is coming under some pressure as a result of the announcement. A break below the 1.3744, the old high from the day is needed and should pressure the pair further. If the pair can not move below, the bias up should be maintained.
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