Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD falls below the 1.3594 level and tests target at 1.3573/75
• USDCAD moving above the key 1.0405/15 level
• USDCAD makes new lows today but trying to bounce
• Forex Morning Report - Feb 22
• USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA today
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.22.2010
• USDCHF testing 200 hour MA level at the 1.0745 level
• GBPUSD in a narrow range. Trying to move higher in early NY trade.
• EURUSD between close and the 100 hour MA as NY enters the quiet fray
• February 22nd, 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eur/Usd trading below 100 hour M/A
• 2-22 Economic Calendar
• Online Trading Class Tuesday Feb 23 Register
• Risk Pairs Firmer to Start the Week

EURUSD falls below the 1.3594 level and tests target at 1.3573/75 Posted: 22 Feb 2010 07:17 AM PST The EURUSD fell below the 1.3594 level which was a floor for most of the day and the closing level from Friday’s trade.  The question now is will there be continued downside momentum.  Watch the 1.3595/99 on the upside to provide resistance as traders look for the continuation momentum trade down. A move above the 1.3600 level will likely burst the bears bubble.   The next target support is at the low for the day at the 1.3573/75 level. This level will need to give way, to get the bears more excited. (SEE PRIOR POST)

USDCAD moving above the key 1.0405/15 level Posted: 22 Feb 2010 07:07 AM PST Squeezes higher (see prior post).  The next target is the 1.0429 level on the 5 minute chart and then the 1.0448. ON the downside, the 1.0405 level should now hold support. Oil prices are coming down, helping the pair move higher.

USDCAD makes new lows today but trying to bounce Posted: 22 Feb 2010 06:31 AM PST The price has moved back above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0385/88 area (blue and green line  in the chart above).  This gives a slightly bullish bias for the pair with the bias turning back to the downside below 1.0385.  If the price is able to stay above this support level, there is key resistance at the 1.0405-15 level for the pair going back to the daily chart where a number of lows and highs occurred in the past.  The price reached a high of  1.0404 earlier today and came off.   On the downside, a move back below the 1.0385 level should extend the downside to test the low at the 1.0368 level.

Forex Morning Report - Feb 22 Posted: 22 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Next Online Trading Class >> Tuesday, Feb 23th 2010 at 4pm Register Here

USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA today Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:52 AM PST The USDJPY is moving closer to the 100 hour MA at the  91.06 level. The pair has closed above this moving average for all but 4 hourly bars since February 11th.  I would expect to see buyers against the level on a dip today as profit takers book some profits from the trend-like move down today. On the topside look for resistance against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The level comes in at the 91.46 level currently and moving lower.  The price has been using the 100 and 200 bar MA on this chart as resistance today apart from a single closing bar above the 200 bar MA early in the trading day.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.22.2010 Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:28 AM PST Good Morning: With details of Greece’s swap arrangements with 15 securities firms coming to light-it seems that some of Greece’s true deficit issues may of been hidden by additional payments by banks along with the swaps that were put in place.  EU regulators are looking into the use of these swaps to hide the deficit problems.  Swaps are generally used by countries to manage their debt-not to generate cash.  The regulators are also looking into the use of swaps by other countries in the EZ, especially the other southern European countries (Spain,Portugal,Italy) that are also having deficit problems. World equity indexes were higher (except Shanghai-which just returned after the New Year Holiday).  US Futures are also higher this morning.    Commodities also rallied overnight. Oil:$80.25                              Gold:$1124.00 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 08:30AM CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX  JAN   —–   -O.61 10:30AM DALLAS FED MANF.ACTIVITY  FEB   ——-  8.3O% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCHF testing 200 hour MA level at the 1.0745 level Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:25 AM PST The 200 hour MA has been tested on a number of occassions today. The current level comes in at the 1.0745 level.  A break should see further downward pressure for the pair with the 1.0718 level as the next target (61.8 of the move up from the February 9th low). On the topside today, the price has made an attempt to extend above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0766 level.  Each time, the price was not able to sustain any momentum with the high reaching 1.0778.    The failure at the top and the move toward support seems to favor a break. We will be watching closely.   Looking at the shorter term chart, the 5 minute chart shows up and down choppy trading conditions for most of the European session. With the price below the 100 and 200 bar MAs at the 1.0758 and 1.0755 levels respectively, the bias is slightly to the downside.  A move above turns the bias back to the upside shorter term and may be a stop level for those looking for the break lower.  Admittedly, the market is grasping at straws as it awaits the next clues for the next move.  From a fundamental perspective, there was a comment by SNBs Jordon which discounted an early Swiss interest rate hike.  He commented that raising rates at some point would be necessary but it is too soon. Meanwhile, the EURCHF remains near levels that saw intervention by the SNB/BIS.  That level comes in at the 1.4630 area.  With the price at the 1.4643 level, it is testing the central banks resolve to defend too strong a currency.  A move toward the level could trigger the central bank again, so be prepared/aware.

GBPUSD in a narrow range. Trying to move higher in early NY trade. Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:12 AM PST THE GBPUSD came under pressure early in the Far East session, reaching a low of 1.5430.  The price rebounded quickly from the move but has been in a narrow high to low range since that time.  The high has reached 1.5503. The low 1.5447 (on 3 separate hourly closes).  The 56 pip range should be extended today.  The price is looking to extend higher in early NY trade.   Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at the 1.5469 level.  The price has beem moving above and below these shorter term moving averages signaling a non-trending consolidating market.  For traders a move above the moving average gives a bullish bias with confirmation through the high for the day at 1.5503.  Above that level, the market should look to test key resistance at the 1.5530/33 level where the 38.2% retracement and the original 2010 low is found. IF the price dips below, the price will need to get through the 1.5447 floor and the low of 1.5430.  This would confirm a more substantial bearish move with the low from Friday at 1.5354 the next logical target.

EURUSD between close and the 100 hour MA as NY enters the quiet fray Posted: 22 Feb 2010 04:56 AM PST The EURUSD has dipped below the close from Friday in early NY trading.  The close from Friday came in at the 1.3594 level. The low just reached 1.3586 but has rebounded.  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.3519 level and this will be upside resistance.  Earlier in the day the price reached the 200 hour MA 9Green line in the chart above) at the 1.3651 and found willing sellers against that level.  The 61.8% retracement of the move down came in at 1.3657. This also gave sellers the confidence to sell - with a stop above. Low risk. High potential reward.  For the day, the 100 hour MA at the 1.3619 level will be upside resistance.  A break will bring back into focus the 200 hour MA currently at the 1.3645 level. On the downside,t the price is back above the 1.3594 closing level from Friday.  A break back below the level should solicit additional selling  with the 1.3575 level being the next target.  Below that level the 1.3531 level will be the markets focus. This was the initial low level for 2010 from February 12th before the level was taken out on Thursday and Friday of last week.

February 22nd, 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 22 Feb 2010 04:33 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Eur/Usd trading below 100 hour M/A Posted: 22 Feb 2010 01:13 AM PST Rumors earlier in the session of good sellers of Eur/Usd around 1.3625-30 level (notably the BIS) have pushed the pair below 1.3600. It closed the last hour of trading below its 100 hour M/A of 1.3621 which confirms a bearish sentiment in the near term. The pairs next support level lies at 1.3573 which is the 38.2% Fibo of move up from 1.3444. More solid supprot lies at 1.3524, the 61.8% Fibo. If we do move back to upside the pair should be hard pressed to get much momentum through that 100 hour M/A, which should now act as resistance.

2-22 Economic Calendar Posted: 21 Feb 2010 08:26 PM PST

Online Trading Class Tuesday Feb 23 Register Posted: 21 Feb 2010 07:06 PM PST Next FXDD Online Trading Class- Tuesday Feb 23 2010 - Classes fill up quickly and you must register in advance. >> Register Here

Risk Pairs Firmer to Start the Week Posted: 21 Feb 2010 06:41 PM PST Risks pairs are firmer to start the trading week amid continued speculation of a debt bailout for Greece, even as negative articles on the state of the Euro and inflationary concerns in Europe persist. The initial move higher on the EUR/USD has not followed through with the open of trading in Tokyo, which could mean this bid is to be short lived. The EUR/USD pair has broken the downward channel which has contained the pair since the beginning of the year, but any further appreciation could be met with some resistance at the 100hr moving average. For the AUD/USD pair which has followed the Euro higher has carry benefits some investors feel will continue to give the currency an advantage, regardless of the 25 basis point move at the discount window in the US last week. On the chart below we see the pair retesting what was trendline support on the appreciation in February and is now looking like resistance.

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