Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USD/CAD puts the brakes on after big morning move
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 5th
- FXDD in Orlando at Money Show
- Non Farm Data Released - Negative
- NFP due out at 8:30 AM
- Canadian Employment figures better than expected
- German Industrial Production
- UK PPI m/m
- French Trade Balance Narrows
- 2-5 Economic Calendar
- JPY Leading Indicators
- I will be traveling for the rest of the day
- February 4th 2010 London Close/NY Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- GBPUSD continues on it’s quest toward 38.2% retracement target
- EURUSD breaks through the 1.3800 level and stops triggered
| USD/CAD puts the brakes on after big morning move Posted: 05 Feb 2010 06:47 AM PST
The USD/CAD has slowed and turned back to the up side after a sharp move lower this morning. The pair hit support near the 1.0640 level just above the 100 and 200 moving averages as seen on the 1 hour chart. It was likely that profit taking was the cause of the quick stop as traders trading around the news announcement wanted to take profits and clear positions as we head into the weekend on the last day of trading. The USD/CAD had been in a range trading sideways since the first of Feb 2010. The move was signaled by a break above the 100 and 200 MA’s yesterday, after a few initial tests failed to break over the 1.0635 level. The pair finally broke thru late in the day and headed to a high of 1.0779. The bias will remain to the upside so long as the pair holds over the two moving averages. |
| Forex Morning Report - Feb 5th Posted: 05 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST |
| Posted: 05 Feb 2010 05:56 AM PST If you are in Orlando this weekend, FXDD will be at the Money Show. Greg Michalowski will be a speaker at the event today. FXDD will also be having a private training on Saturday. Be sure to stop by the FXDD booth and say hello to the team and to sign up for the Saturday event. |
| Non Farm Data Released - Negative Posted: 05 Feb 2010 05:35 AM PST Non-farm Payrolls Fall by 20,000 Jobs in January; Unemployment Rate Falls to 9.7% December revision down |
| Posted: 05 Feb 2010 05:04 AM PST The Expectation is for a gain of 10K jobs. This would be a bounce back from the -84 K last month. Last month was hurt by the weather with estimates that it could have had a -100K impact. Since that time, the Initial Claims have actually risen from around 430K at the end/beginning of Dec/Jan to 470ish in recent weeks. However, we did have a higher than expected GDP which should lead to higher jobs at some point. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 10.0%. Manufacturing jobs are expected to shed another -20K. Also released will be the benchmart revisions for last year which are exected to show that another -800K jobs were lost in 2009 capping the worst job loss year on record. As is always the case, risk increases during an Employment report so if you have no position it is not suggested to take a new one until after the event. At that time the market can be assessed and a directional bias can hopefully be estabished. I would expect that a stronger number benefits risk currency pairs and may weaken the dollar at least initially, and visa versa. However, nothing can be guaranteed as far as a reaction. As a result following the key technical levels are always recommened. Below are the key levels for the major currency pairs. EURUSD:
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
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| Canadian Employment figures better than expected Posted: 05 Feb 2010 04:06 AM PST The Net Change in Canadian Employment was up 43,000 jobs, better than the 15,000 increase expected. The Unemployment Rate came in at 8.3%, better than the 8.5% expected. Usd/Cad came off 50 pips down to 1.0720 on pre and post figure trading. |
| Posted: 05 Feb 2010 03:04 AM PST Industrial production came in at -2.6% versus its forecast of 0.6%. The already battered EUR was not affected by this below par release, which may also be related to the much expected non-farm payroll number due out at 8:30 am (eastern standard time). |
| Posted: 05 Feb 2010 01:34 AM PST The market was resilient to better than expected PPI numbers out of the UK; this number usually causes some movement in the market. The details of the release are as follows:
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| Posted: 04 Feb 2010 11:59 PM PST The French trade balance for 2009 narrowed to -4.266B from its prior showing of 5.0B; but it did not meet its forecast of -3.9B. The EUR fell slightly on the back of this release and is currently trading at 1.3685. |
| Posted: 04 Feb 2010 10:18 PM PST
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| Posted: 04 Feb 2010 09:04 PM PST Leading indicators out of Japan were better than expected at 94.0% versus the forecast of 93.7% and prior reading of 90.7%, but the market was unaffected by the release. |
| I will be traveling for the rest of the day Posted: 04 Feb 2010 09:30 AM PST … and look forward to those who may be in Orlando at the Money Show. Good luck with your trading. Greg Michalowski |
| February 4th 2010 London Close/NY Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 04 Feb 2010 09:17 AM PST |
| GBPUSD continues on it’s quest toward 38.2% retracement target Posted: 04 Feb 2010 07:36 AM PST
The GBPUSD continues to fall as well, breaking though 1.5800 and falling to a low of 1.5760. Off the longer term chart the target comes in at 1.5689. This is the 38.2% of the 2009 low to high range. It is also near the low correction from October 2009 when the price dipped to 1.5706. Both levels will be eyed by the market on the downside. On the upside, look for the typical resistance at 1.5800 and above that 1.5833 and 1.5849. If the corrections are not able to extend to and above these level, nor remain above them, the downside will likely continue to dominate with new lower levels.
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| EURUSD breaks through the 1.3800 level and stops triggered Posted: 04 Feb 2010 07:19 AM PST
The 1.3826 level held the upside correction (see prior post) and this helped push the price down as dip buyers toward 1.3800 got no satisfaction. All that was left to do, was have longs liquidate below 1.3800 and they did to a low of 1.3777. The next support target 1.3748/1.3755 which is the low from June 15/16. Resistance now comes in at 1.3800 an above the 1.3826 remains a key level. The break should be taken quite seriously until the market tells us otherwise. That at a minimum would be a move back above 1.3800 and perhaps even the 1.3826 level.
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