Friday, February 26, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US Existing Home Sales lower than expectations

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 07:00 AM PST

Supply of homes rises to 7.8 months from 7.2 months.  38% of homes are distressed sales up from 32% last month.

Michigan Confidence falls to 73.6 vs 73.9 expectations. Existing Home sales next

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 06:58 AM PST

The Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 Expectations are for a rise to 5.50 M annualized units from 5.45M last month. The months supply came in at 7.2 months last month up from 6.5 months last month. The New Home Sales data came out earlier this week and were weaker than expectations (-11.2% MoM with months supply rising).

Spains Economic Minister on the newswires

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 06:53 AM PST

Says economy will not register a down quarter in 2010 and he does not believe agencies will cut Spains rating further. Sees no risk of double dip recession.

Chicago PMI up to 62.6. Higher than expectations but be aware.

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 06:45 AM PST

This is higher than the expectations at 59.7.  Although higher the mix of the data is not showing the same strength. New Orders are down to 62.2 from 66.4. The Employment index is down to 53.0 from 59.8.  Production is down as well which to 65.2 from 66.6. So although better it may not be as good as first perceived.  

Prices paid                   67.7 vs  66.2 last month
Production                   65.2  vs 66.6 last month
New orders                 62.2 vs  66.4 last month
Order backlogs            58.5 vs 54.3 last month
Inventories                  42.4 vs 48.7 last month
Employment               53.0 vs 59.8 last month
Supplier deliveries     62.6 vs 55.3 last month

USDJPY consolidates after a trend week to the downside

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 06:32 AM PST

gregmike-00622

The high for the USDJPY was on Monday at the 91.89. The low occurred yesterday at the 88.79 level.  The price moved below the 100 hour MA at the 91.19 level on Tuesday, the trendline and 200 hour MA on Tuesday.  Consolidated on Wednesday at the 100 day MA (at 90.16) and moved lower Thursday.  Now the market is consolidating once again as the week comes to a close.

The Yens demand has come off the flight to quality bid as a result of slower global growth and the Greece situation.  This should continue in the near term. However watching the technical levels are always important.

Looking at the shorter term chart the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 89.26 level.  This suggests a non-trending type market and normally a move away is warranted.  The price has respected the level in NY trade today with a few tests. On the downside, however, there has been some profit taking buying.  The price below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the below chart gives a bearish bias. Confirmation of the move would come on a break of the 89.15 level and the low for the day at 89.00.  If the price moves above the moving average levels, the bias switches and focus turns toward the 89.39 level where we have a ceiling developing. 

gregmike-00623

Forex Morning Report - Feb 26

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 06:31 AM PST

USDCHF continues to range trade with a bearish bias

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 05:56 AM PST

 gregmike-00621

The USDCHF moved below the 100 and 200 bar MA, found support at the 1.0737 level and has bounced back to the 100 hour MA. Now the price is back below the  200 hour moving average in a choppy session.

The good news is the levels are known. Resistance comes in against the 100 hour MA at the 1.0798 level. By the way the midpoint of the weeks range comes in at the 1.0796 level.  The supprot comes in at the 1.0737 double bottom. 

On the topside a break of 1.0798 has additional resistance at the 1.0825 level.  Then the high for the week at the 1.0878. On the downside the low for the week at 1.0715 is the next target. Bias does remain down below the 100 hour MA.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.26.2010

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 05:41 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The USD and JPY dropped overnight as signs that the global recovery is getting more and more traction, thus increasing demand for higher-yielding assets.
Greece’s debt problems will still put pressure on the Euro, and may dampen demand for EuroZone assets.

World equity markets are higher-and US Futures are lower at this time.

Oil:$78.40                            Gold:$1107.20 

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. GDP QoQ (ANNUALIZED) 4Q S 5.70% 5.70%
8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 4Q S 2.00% 2.00%
8:30A.M. GDP PRICE INDEX  4Q S 0.60% 0.60%
8:30A.M. CORE PCE QoQ 4Q S 1.40% 1.40%
9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER FEB. 59.7O 61.5O
9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE FEB. F 73.9O    73.7O
10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES JAN.      5.50M   5.45M
10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES MoM JAN. 0.90% -16.70%
10:00A.M. NAPM -MILWAUKEE      FEB.     56.O

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

As we battle another snow storm in the Northeast-the kids are off from school-enjoy the sled riding.

GDP comes in stronger at 5.9%

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 05:39 AM PST

Personal Consumption fell to 1.7% from 2.0% reported earlier.  Inventories contributed to the increases.

GBPUSD falls to new 2010 lows

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 05:28 AM PST

gregmike-00619

The GBPUSD continues to be pressured before the US GDP data at 8:30 - falling to a new 2010 low price.   The GDP is expect to come in at 5.6% slightly below the 5.7% prior reading.  Consumption is expected to stay unchanged at 2%.  For the GBPUSD look for resistance at 1.5213.  ON the downside the low at 1.5176 will be eyed now.

Below the 1.5176 level, the 1.5115 should be another downside target level. Looking back to May 2009, the low before the surge higher started at 1.5115.  The chart below shows those key levels. 

gregmike-00620

Rebroadcast of Feb 25th Online Trading Class

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 05:00 AM PST

An excellent training on trends and possible trend reversals. View the rebroadcast by clicking this link.

EURUSD moves below back below the 200 hour MA after a squeeze overnight

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 04:53 AM PST

 gregmike-00616

The EURUSD is moving below back below the 200 bar MA at the 1.3589 level.   At around the same time, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart was being broken at the 1.3586 level.  These two levels should now provide resistance for the EURUSD.

gregmike-00615

The price has moved down to test the 200 bar MA on the same 5 minute chart at the 1.3573 level. The importance of this level is the price held this moving average line earlier today and moved higher.  The market remembers this fact. As a result, we will need a break below to further pressure the pair.  The next target below that level, comes in at the 100 hour MA at the 1.3556 level (blue line in the hourly chart above). A break of that level will look toward the key 1.3531-39 level once again.

Although Greece continues to be a concern from a fundamental perspective. There is also some issues with AIG in the news today.  AIG reported a huge loss and are saying that they may need additional government assistance.   The question is does the double bad news lead to a flight to quality (into the $ and Yen) or does the AIG news cancel the Greece news and lead to a weaker dollar (i.e. correcting dollar).  Watch the technical levels at 1.3586/89 to give the clues to the upside.  On the downside, a break of the 1.3573 level (200 bar on the 5 minute chart) should  confirm further pressure.

February 26th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 04:34 AM PST

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 02:34 AM PST

The CHF gained a little bit of steam after a better than expected KOF Economic Barometer of 1.87; beating it’s forecast of 1.81 and prior showing of 1.77.  USD/CHF is currently trading near session lows at 1.0754.

EUR CPI

Posted: 26 Feb 2010 02:06 AM PST

The euro, which is trading off session highs of 1.3614 against the USD, traded slightly higher after the release of year over year CPI number which met its forecast of 1.0%. Core CPI, however, came in slightly lower at 0.9% versus its forecast of 1.2% and prior reading of 1.1%.  The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at the 1.36 handle.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)