Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCAD: Watching 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 11
- EURUSD moves lower despite EU support
- EU source discusses possible bond purchase by Eurozone banks
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.11.2010
- EURUSD breaks below 100 hour MA and heads to test yesterdays low
- Initial Claims comes out better than expectations
- $USDCAD tests 100 day MA at 1.0557
- USDJPY holds 100 day MA resistance overnight. Tests 100 hour MA support at 89.56.
- GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA after holding the floor once again
- The February 11th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- EURUSD testing/falling? below the 100 hour MA as NY enters in snowy NY
- PBOC Statements…
- ECB Monthly Bulletin
| USDCAD: Watching 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart Posted: 11 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST
The USDCAD has bounced off the 100 day MA (see prior post) and moved above the 100 bar MA. Now it has the 200 bar MA to get through to confirm the upside. Watch the level at the 1.0589 level currently (see chart above). |
| Posted: 11 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Live Online Training today at 4pm, you must register in advance on the FXDD webinars page - Register Here |
| EURUSD moves lower despite EU support Posted: 11 Feb 2010 06:20 AM PST
The price has moved away from the 100 hour MA at the 1.3716 level and broken through the next target support at the 1.3682 area. The next target comes in at the 1.3644 and then the 1.3621 level which was the double bottom on the hourly chart from Monday. The low for 2010 comes in at 1.3585. We will be watching the 1.3582-88 level now as topside resistance. IF the price is going to trend lower from here, I would not expect a move above this area.
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| EU source discusses possible bond purchase by Eurozone banks Posted: 11 Feb 2010 06:01 AM PST The purchase of Greek bonds by the EUROZONE state owned banks is one of the options considered in EU plan to support Greece. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.11.2010 Posted: 11 Feb 2010 05:51 AM PST
I am back in the office after 12 + inches of snow hit the NY Metro area. At least the kids got The EU has reached an agreement to help Greece out of it’s budget deficit problems. EU and world leaders are concerned of the stability of the EuroZone-as this is by far the worst crisis in the Euro’s 11 year history. The main question in the marketplace is how will the EU respond to speculation that Spain and Portugal are also having major issues with their budget deficit. Asian equity markets rose, and Europe is mixed-after the Dow lost 20 pts yesterday. US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$74.79 Gold:$1081.20 Jobless Claims were released this morning. They were lower than expected. Jobless Claims declined by 43K. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| EURUSD breaks below 100 hour MA and heads to test yesterdays low Posted: 11 Feb 2010 05:45 AM PST
The low comes in at 1.3676 and 1.3682 (see chart above and PRIOR POST). ON the topside now, look for resistance at the 1.3712 and 1.3716 level. The price has been in between the “Goal Posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour moving average for the last two trading days (apart from a 2 hour period yesterday which was reversed). The break lower should see a momentum move lower - away from the 100 hour MA. On the downside the low for the week comes in at 1.3620. The low last Friday came in at 1.3585. These would be downside targets as long as the 100 hour MA is held above. |
| Initial Claims comes out better than expectations Posted: 11 Feb 2010 05:40 AM PST The Initial Claims fell to 440 K from a revised 483K. The Continuing Claims fell to 4538 from 4617K. Both are better than expected. Despite the better US data, the EURUSD is moving lower and has broken below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3716 level - testing the 1.3700 level. The USDJPY got a boost higher but ran into 100 bar MA resistance at the 89.84 level and has come off. Watch this level on the upside for clues. A break should see additional momentum. If the price can not get through, look for a rotation down as disappointment sets in.
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| $USDCAD tests 100 day MA at 1.0557 Posted: 11 Feb 2010 05:31 AM PST
The USDCAD is testing the 100 day moving average at the 1.0557 level. A break below the level will likely see further pressure in the pair. The 1.0501 level is the 50% of the recent move higher from the Jan 2010 low the Feb 2010 high (see chart above). If the level holds, a move back above the 1.0580 level would pave the way to a move toward 1.0602 and the high for the day at 1.0627.
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| USDJPY holds 100 day MA resistance overnight. Tests 100 hour MA support at 89.56. Posted: 11 Feb 2010 05:16 AM PST
The USDJPY held the 100 day MA resistance overnight at the 90.10 level (high reached 90.13). The price has come down from the level and now tests the 100 hour MA at the 89.57 level (see blue line in the chart below). Look for buyers against a stop below the level as the USDJPY awaits the US Initial Claims data at 8:30. Expectations is for a fall to 465K from 480K last week.
A break below targets the 89.28 level which is the midpoint of the move up from the November 2009 low (84.80 in chart below) to the January 2010 high price (93.77 - see chart below).
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| GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA after holding the floor once again Posted: 11 Feb 2010 05:00 AM PST
The GBPUSD is testing the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5626 level after overnight testing the floor for the 8th time in the last 4 trading days. The floor has set itself at the 1.5555 area. The low for the week extended to Monday at 1.5533. Both areas need to be breached to extend downside pressure. On the upside a break of the 100 hour moving average has the high for the day at 1.5659. The Midpoint of the two day range comes in at 1.5661. This will be the next upside target for the pair on a move higher.
Looking further out, the 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.5767 level. This would be a target level for the pair to the upside.
While on the downside, if the floor level gives way, the longer term target for the GBPUSD could extend ultimately down to 1.5272 which is the midpoint of the move up from the 2009 low to the 2009 high (see daily chart below).
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| The February 11th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 11 Feb 2010 04:28 AM PST |
| EURUSD testing/falling? below the 100 hour MA as NY enters in snowy NY Posted: 11 Feb 2010 04:27 AM PST
EU Van Rompuy is on the newswires saying he fully supports the measures of the Greek government. HOwever, he reminded the market that the Greek government will need to act decisively and that they should cut the budget deficit/GDP by 4% in 2010. This will slow growth in the country and the EU in general. It will also come with some opposition from the Greek population. So the EURUSD has fallen to a new low on the day at the 1.3707 level. This is below the 100 hour MA currently at the 1.3716 and the Midpoint (1.3712) of the range from Friday’s low at 1.3585 and the high reached on Tuesday at 1.3839. The price has rebounded back above the 1.3716 level but the market is definitely at a crossroad for the pair as the price decides which way it wants to break - is it ready to break? Overnight the price tested the other end of the Goal Post formation as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA on the chart above. The price apart from a hourly period yesterday has been contained with in the two moving averages for 2 days now. A break to the downside, should next target the 1.3682 level.The low for the week is actually a double low on Monday at 1.3621. The low for 2010 was last Friday at 1.3585.
On the topside, if the market price can hold the market will be looking for a break above the 200 and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which comes in at 1.3760 to 1.3765 currently. Today we do have the US Initial Claims data at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a fall to 465K from 480K. A weaker number may be needed to push the price through. However, weak or strong, the level should be a key level today. Be aware. |
| Posted: 11 Feb 2010 02:08 AM PST The following are statements made by the PBOC:
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| Posted: 11 Feb 2010 01:06 AM PST In summary, the ECB released these comments:
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