Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Philadelphia Fed Index comes in better than expected.
- GBPUSD moves up to test 200 hour MA. Bounce off the 1.5556 floor solicits short covering buyers
- Stops triggered and the EURUSD moves quickly above resistance
- EURUSD moves above 1.3584 and squeezes higher. 1.3634 is the next target
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 18
- USDJPY comes down to initial support and bounces
- GBPUSD working toward support at 1.5556 and 1.5533 support levels
- Economic data is poor out of the US. USDJPY lower. Flight to quality.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.18.2010
- EURUSD watching 1.3584 area above
- GBPUSD pressured on budget deficit news
- February 18th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- Canadian CPI
- CBI Industrial Order Expectations
- UK Major Banks Mortgage Approvals
| Philadelphia Fed Index comes in better than expected. Posted: 18 Feb 2010 07:01 AM PST PHILLY FED INDEX AT 17.6 VS 15.2 LAST MONTH Meanwhile the Leading Indicators rose by 0.3% for the month which was little worse than the 0.5% expected. The Philly index is better with the New Orders especially showing strength. This muddies the fundamental water for the market. I would expect choppy trading to continue and will look to be patient as a result. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD moves up to test 200 hour MA. Bounce off the 1.5556 floor solicits short covering buyers Posted: 18 Feb 2010 06:51 AM PST
The GBPUSD also caught a short covering bid and squeezed sharply higher in volatile trading - moving above the 1.5600 resistance level in the process. The pairs ability to bounce off the key support at the 1.5556 got shorts scared and they raced for the exits. There is no other news but Gold is back higher as is oil and this has led to the dollar selling. The price moved to the 200 hour MA at the 1.5662 level - reaching a high of 1.5674. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.5687 level. Watch the 1.5662 level now. A move back above should solicit addditional buyers. Support below will eye the 1.5634 level where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found. The 1.5608 level will also be watched. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stops triggered and the EURUSD moves quickly above resistance Posted: 18 Feb 2010 06:43 AM PST The market got caught short and the price reflects the move. 1.3663 is the next target on the topside. Look for buyers on dips at 1.3634 now. Volatility increasing. Risk increasing. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD moves above 1.3584 and squeezes higher. 1.3634 is the next target Posted: 18 Feb 2010 06:31 AM PST
As per the prior post the 1.3584 was a key level to watch and once the market moved above we have seen some short covering in the pair (CLICK HERE FOR PRIOR POST). The topside target coems in at 1.3634 now. On the downside look for support against the 1.3584 level now. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 18 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDJPY comes down to initial support and bounces Posted: 18 Feb 2010 06:21 AM PST
As per the prior post (CLICK HERE), the USDJPY came down to test support at the 90.53 level and bounced. The price is now in between the upside resistance at the 90.92 channel trendline and the support at 90.53. I would expect sellers against the topside resistance and perhaps buyers below at 90.53. Better buying support should come in at the 100 hour MA at the 90.34 area. This is also where the 61.8% of the last move higher comes in. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD working toward support at 1.5556 and 1.5533 support levels Posted: 18 Feb 2010 05:48 AM PST The weaker data has the GBPUSD moving lower with the 1.5556 support and the low for 2010 at 1.5533 looming below (SEE PRIOR POST). There should be some profit taking buying against the levels. A break, however, should solicit additional selling pressure as the weight of government debt starts to weigh more and more on the pound. Looking back at the last time the price was at these levels in May of 2009 (the below chart is an hourly chart from this period), the price had support at the 1.5513 and below that at 1.5544/48 area. These would be the next target levels for the pair. Keep these levels in mind on a downward move.
The upside will now watch 1.5600 as topside resistance where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is now found. Longer term, the daily chart would point to a target of the 1.5272 level (the midpoint of the 2009 low to high range).
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| Economic data is poor out of the US. USDJPY lower. Flight to quality. Posted: 18 Feb 2010 05:34 AM PST Initial Claims rise to 473 from 442 revised. The Continuing Claims remain unchanged on the week at 4563 but higher than expectations. PPI came in at 1.4% as food and energy lead to the gain. Ex food and energy, however, the prices rose by 0.3%. Although much lower than the headline, it was still higher than expectations. The YoY PPI ex Food and Energy is up only 1.0%. The reaction is a flight to quality with the USDJPY falling and the EURUSD and GBPUSD falling as well. For the USDJPY the 90.53 is initial support with the 100 hour MA being the key support down at the 90.30 level currently and moving higher. Look for buyers on dips with stops below this level today.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.18.2010 Posted: 18 Feb 2010 05:28 AM PST
The greenback rallied overnight as Euro Zone officials fight over the details of any bailout for Greece. It seems that there is a major rift between EU Finance Ministers in regards to how much, if any, funds should be available to assist Greece with their budget deficit. Greek bonds fell as EU regulators are investigating possible use of swaps with banks to conceal the debt problem. World equity markets are higher, and US Futures are slightly lower at this time. Oil: $77.05 Gold:$1107.20 Today’s data:
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD watching 1.3584 area above Posted: 18 Feb 2010 05:11 AM PST The EURUSD has consolidated at a lower level today. Support against last weeks lows at 1.3531 held with the low for the day coming in at the 1.3539 level. ON the topside we are watching the 1.3584 level which was the low on February 5th and then floor support on February 15th. A move back above this level may solicit additional buying today with an upside target at the 1.3633 area where lows and highs and the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) is starting to move toward (currently at the 1.3641 and moving lower).
On the downside in addition to the low at 1.3531, there is key support at the 1.3483 level. This is the 61.8% retracement of the 2009 low to high range. Be aware of this level I would expect support against the level but a break should not be welcomed by the market.
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| GBPUSD pressured on budget deficit news Posted: 18 Feb 2010 04:55 AM PST The GBPUSD was pressured last night on the back of the first budget deficit in the month of January since 1993. January is typically a budget surplus month as taxes are collected in the month. This year spending outstripped the tax receipts. This is obviously negative for the GBPUSD and should lead to further selling pressure in the pair.
From a technical basis, the price moved below the lower “Goal Post” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA in the above chart (blue and green chart) and moved lower in early trading. The price rebounded back higher above the 200 hour MA (green line) but quickly reversed back down. At the high price on the correction, the price stopped at the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (See the green line in the 5 minute chart below) giving confidence to the sellers and the price started its move down back through the 100 bar MA in the same chart.
The low reached 1.5574 so far. The key support level to watch comes in at the 1.5556 level where there has been a nice floor developing over the last few weeks (see chart below). The low price on the move down from the 2009 high has reached 1.5533. We will be watching these levels on the downside for initial support/profit taking buying
A break below, however, should lead to further pressure in the pair, with longer term target at 1.5272 (see daily chart below).This is where the 50% retracement of the 2009 low to high trading range comes in.
On the topside look for the price to find sellers against the 1.5618 level which is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The 38.2% of the days range also comes in at the area. This should hold upside corrections. If the price moves above, there should be additional buying. Watch that level.
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| February 18th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 18 Feb 2010 04:35 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 18 Feb 2010 04:04 AM PST Canadian Core CPI m/m came in at 0.1% as expected. CPI m/m came in at 0.3% also as expected. Usd/Cad sold off about 10 points to 1.0455 on heels of news. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CBI Industrial Order Expectations Posted: 18 Feb 2010 03:12 AM PST CBI Industrial Order Expectations came in at -36, weaker than the -35 expected. Sterling sold off slightly from release, down about 15 points to 1.5590. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UK Major Banks Mortgage Approvals Posted: 18 Feb 2010 01:37 AM PST UK Major Banks Mortgage Approvals for January came in at 49,000, weaker than the 63,000 forecasted and the 62,000 prior reading. Gbp/Usd sold off about 20 points upon release trading down to 1.5598. The pair currently trades at 1.5607. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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