Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Morning Update - Feb 16
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.16.2010
• February 16th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone & German ZEW
• UK Inflation Data
• 2-16 Economic Calendar
• RBA’s Debelle Speaks in Sydney
• Euro Marginally Higher in Asia (Click for Charts)
• January 15th 2010 Even Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• EU Speakers
• New Zealand PPI

Forex Morning Update - Feb 16 Posted: 16 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Sign up for the Online Trading Class today at 4pm >>Register here

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.16.2010 Posted: 16 Feb 2010 05:28 AM PST Good Morning: I am writing to you from the Traders Expo in NYC.  NYC also had a few inches of snow overnight-like we need anymore? The USD gave up some ground overnight as equity markets gained, commodities advanced and investors appetite for higher-yielding assets rose.  The Euro picked up some ground overnight as the markets realize that the Greek budget problems have not been fully analyzed as of yet.  EU finance ministers are insisting that Greece take a more “concrete steps to regain credibility in the markets”  EU ministers have yet to explain how they will assist Greece if it cannot contain it’s debt. World equity markets rose, and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Commodities also rose overnight. Oil:$75.15                                    Gold:$1112.30  Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

February 16th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 16 Feb 2010 04:29 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone & German ZEW Posted: 16 Feb 2010 02:06 AM PST German ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 45.1, stronger than the 41.0 expected and weaker than the 47.2 prior reading. Current Situation came in at -54.8, weaker than the -53.0 expected and -56.6 prior reading. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 40.2, weaker than the 41.5 expected and 46.4 prior reading. So far the market is not reading much into the mixed ZEW Survey data out of the Eurozone. Eur/Usd has ascended about 10 points to 1.3655.

UK Inflation Data Posted: 16 Feb 2010 01:44 AM PST UK CPI m/m came in at -0.2%, weaker than the -0.1% expected. CPI y/y came in at 3.5%, inline with expectations. Core CPI y/y came in at 3.1%, weaker than the 3.2% expected. RPI m/m came in at 0.0%, inline with expectations. RPI y/y came in at 3.7%, weaker than the 3.8% expected. The market was expecting an acceleration of inflation and this data does not support market expectations. This data would indicate that UK interest rates will hold steady for time being, thus the impact on sterling was negligible.

2-16 Economic Calendar Posted: 15 Feb 2010 08:38 PM PST

RBA’s Debelle Speaks in Sydney Posted: 15 Feb 2010 06:27 PM PST RBA Assistant Governor Debelle made the following comments: Securitization markets show signs of life. RBA will maintain eligible collateral. Financial system risks still exist. Most concerned with 2nd tier of U.S. financial system. More loan losses to come in North Atlantic. Asian bank balances remain sound.

Euro Marginally Higher in Asia (Click for Charts) Posted: 15 Feb 2010 05:45 PM PST The EUR/USD pair has received a modest bid early in the Asian session after trading in a very tight range in NY on a US holiday. Following a year-end move lower toward the 1.45 handle as long Euro positions were closed after a strong year, the pair has continued lower on further woes out of Greece and market concerns on other borderline EU members (namely Spain and Portugal.) Mixed comments out of the EU on the subject of support for these member states and market speculation has weighed heavily on the pair to the tune of  9 more big figures in just over a month. The pressure on Euro could persist for sometime as it had against the USD on talks of China’s reserve diversification throughout 2009. On the charts below we see the sell off in 2010 has used the channel depicted below for support and resistance and the next major support level could be seen at the 61.8% retracement of the last major move from 3/09 (~1.2450) to 12/09 (~1.5140.)

January 15th 2010 Even Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 15 Feb 2010 05:39 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Posted: 15 Feb 2010 04:39 PM PST The RBA released the minutes from it’s FEb 2nd meeting; here are the highlights. February rate pause was ‘finely balanced” decision. Rate increases are not needed at every meeting. RBA board says concerns on sovereign debt had increased. Earlier rate raises have given the board more flexibility. More increases in cash rate are likely needed. Cash rate is no longer exceptionally accommodative. Mining sectory growth will be stronger. Inflation will be consistent with it’s target. Bond issuance by Australian banks has been large. Rate pause gives it time to monitor overseas events. Australian business investment will pick up. There is uncertainty over pace of growth in major economies.

EU Speakers Posted: 15 Feb 2010 02:14 PM PST Speaking at a press conference after the Eurogroup meeting, the EU’s Juncker made the following comments: Growth is returning, but fragile. Q4 growth wasn’t very good. Sees 2010 growth around 1%. Europeans want G-7 to remain forum for FX talks. Greece will present additional measure mid-march. There will be additional measure to focus on spending cuts. New measures to be on both spending and expense sides. Greece committed to take more measures if needed. Greece finances are internal Greek problems. Impressed by vigor of Greece’s response. Financial markets are wrong to attack Greece. The EU’s Rehn made these comments speaking in Brussels earlier: EU to present economic forecasts on Feb 25th. Greece must be ready to help itself. EU will closely monitor Greek measures. EU stands ready to propose more measures if needed. Broader, deeper surveillance needed in Euro area.

New Zealand PPI Posted: 15 Feb 2010 01:46 PM PST The market had a lack luster reaction to worse than expected PPI data out of New Zealand. The details are as follows: Producer Prices - Inputs (QoQ) - Survey: 0.5%   Actual: 0.3%   Prior: -1.1% Producter Prices - Outputs (QoQ) - Survey: 0.4%   Actual: -0.4%   Prior: -1.4%

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