Friday, September 30, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EUR/USD Resumes Bearish Trend Bias

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 08:07 AM PDT

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (9/30/2011) has begun a resumption of its bearish stance after making a bullish correction within the context of a strong and steep breakout downtrend. This new downtrend has its origins at the early September breakdown below a key wedge pattern and then below the 1.4000 price region, which represented a confluence of three important support factors: the 200-day simple moving average, a key uptrend support line extending back to the June 2010 low extreme, and the 1.4000 psychological support/resistance level. After the breakdown of that support confluence, price has displayed a strong bearish trend interspersed with regular bullish retracements. Most recently, after hitting the new downtrend’s low around 1.3360 in the beginning of this week (which is also around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last major bullish correction), and stopping shy of its 1.3300 downside target, price retraced once again before now resuming its bearish directional bias. In the event that the pair is able to hit its current downside target at 1.3300, the next key downside target within the currently prevailing downtrend resides around the important 1.3000 psychological support level.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

EURUSD moves toward 50% of move up from June 2010 low

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 08:01 AM PDT

Fed Bullard: Fed could ease further

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:59 AM PDT

  • Expects growth to pick next year
  • Fed has potent tool including QE.
  • He calls for a more rules based policy approach
  • Expects growth to pick up next year
  • He does not think the Fed should confine themselves to long time periods of inaction.

USDJPY trying to push higher. 77.00 area approached

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:40 AM PDT

The USDJPY based against the 100 and 200 hour MA today and has marched higher today. The move higher took the price out of the value area of the last 1/2 month of trading. The price is also above the 38.2% of the September range.  A move above the 76.976/77.01 area should solicit stop buying.  Amove back below the 76.77 would not be welcomed (the pattern is failures lead to sharp moves back down).

The BOJ and new administration has been chatting up efforts to weaken the JPY.  The pair remains a safe haven play but PMI data last night came in below 50 last night (at 49.3) and Industrial Production was also weaker than expectations.  This may help weaken the JPY (lead to a move higher in the pair).

GBPUSD breaks through resistance at 1.5567

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:29 AM PDT

The 38.2% of the days trading range and the 200 hour MA both converged at the 1.5567 level. The price initially found resistance at the level but has since pushed through. Now the 1.5560-67 is support for the pair.

The 100 hour MA comes in a the 1.5603 level. That will be a target resistance area  for the pair now.

* My chart data is still not updated. Technology is working on it though..

EURUSD stalling at support but markets downside bias remains

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:05 AM PDT

The EURUSD has stalled between support at hte 1.3407-27 (low reached 1.3423), but the correction high has been tame with the high correction at 1.3444. Stocks are down 107 points. Nasdaq is down 36 and S& P is down 15 points 

Resistance should be between 1.3459 and 1.3470.

US Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in at 59.4. A touch better than expected

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:57 AM PDT

Economic conditions 74.9 vs 68.7 in August
Economic outlook 49.4 vs 47.4 in August.

Chicago PMI comes in better at 60.4

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:47 AM PDT

Prices paid   62.3  vs 68.6
Production 63.9  vs 57.8
New orders 65.3 vs  56.9
Order backlogs 45.4 vs 49.6
Inventories 60.3  vs 52.9
Employment  60.6 vs  52.1
Supplier deliveries  51.9  vs 60.5

EURUSD trading at support area.

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:39 AM PDT

The 1.3427 level was the Feb 2011 low. The 1.3407 level is the 50% of the move up from June 2010 low.  The market decline is stalling at the area. The topside will be watching 1.3459 and 1.3472 (38.2% of the move down from the last intraday high).

Back up…Sorry for the technical problems.

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT

The MT charts will be updated with data soon.  Thank you for your patience.

 

KOF Economic Barometer weaker than expected

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 02:40 AM PDT

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.21, its lowest level in 2 years and weaker than the 1.41 expected.

Chf unaffected by news as Usd/Chf trades at .9020 and Eur/Chf at 1.2190.

Eurozone CPI

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 02:10 AM PDT

EZ CPI Flash Estimate y/y came ina t 3.0%, stronger than the 2.5% expected.

French August consumer spending rises 0.2% m/m, as expected

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 11:50 PM PDT

Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3515.

Germany’s Roesler opposes leveraging rescue fund

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 11:17 PM PDT

Very certain Germany won’t boost EFSF guarantees

Eur/Usd trading near session lows at 1.3534.

German retail sales drop 2.9% in August

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 11:03 PM PDT

A drop of 0.4% was expected.

Eur/Usd has come off 10 pips since release, trading at 1.3551.
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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDSGD tests intraday resistance at 1.2929 area

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:54 AM PDT

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:53 AM PDT

Charting the Majors with James Chen

Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This webinar featured the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/151835441 .

EURUSD back testing NY days highs at 1.3650

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:15 AM PDT

The EURUSD is back up testing (and now moving through) the NY high for the day at the 1.3650. The high for the trading day is at the 1.36777 lvel and this is the next target for the pair.  Traders willl like to see the momentum continue higher for the pair but expect profit taking against the 1.3677 at least on the first test.  This level corresponds with the underside of the trendline up from the lows this week. Earlier today the price failed on a break above that broken trendline (see chart below). I would look for sellers against it should the price test it again with stops on a break. 

The market remains choppy in the pair.

Pending Home sales better than expected but down -1.2% MoM

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:02 AM PDT

The YoY has risen by 13.1%. This was also better than expected (+6.4% expected).

The Northeast fell -1.2%
The Midwest fell -3.7%
The South rose by 2.6%
The West fell by 2.4%

All changes are seasonally adjusted. The estimate is that 80% of the pending home sales will become existing home sales in 2 months time.

Although the Pending Home sales are up 13.1%, the indexed value is at 88.6 (100 = 2001 base), the high indexed value was 127.0 in April of 2005. The low was 75.9 in June of 2009.  So from the high, the Pending home sales are down 30.23%.

SNB official says will increase shift toward GBP over the coming year

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has moved sharply higher in reaction as has the GBPCHF.

The GBPCHF has been using the 200 day MA as a key resistance level above. The level currently comes in at the 1.4179 level. The high reached 1.4127 level last week. This would be an upside target for the pair. A break above should lead to further upside momentum. 

On the hourly chart below the price has been consolidating and remains in a range for the pair. However, the price did bounce off the 200 hour MA (green line) earlier today, and is now above the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.4023).  This will be support for traders today.  The 1.4078 level is the topside trendline resistance. A move above this level should lead to further upside momentum in the pair with the high for the week (2in chart) at 1.4122 the next target followed by the high from last week at the 1.4145 level (1 in chart).

USDCHF confined by 200 hour MA and floor support

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:34 AM PDT

The USDCHF has been between support and resistance over the last 10 hours.

Unconfirmed report from think tank that says BOJ will ease in October.

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:20 AM PDT

The USDJPY had been moving higher today and the price has just moved above the resistance at the 76.77 level (38.2% retracement). The next resistance comes at the 76.98. Each time the price has moved to the high end of the range this month, the price action has failed and the fall has been quick. Traders simply do not have the conviction to hold on when the price action stalls. 

 

EURUSD chops around in NY trade

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:13 AM PDT

The 1.3630 level is the 100 bar MA on the 45 minute chart (see chart above) and the market has been chopping around the levels since the release of the 8:30 US economic numbers. The latest move has been back below the level. The last move higher took the price above the NY high, but that failed (at 1.3650). The NY low is 1.3604 so far.    The 38.2% of the days range is at 1.3617.  The market bounced off this level, post the economic releases.   From a technical perspective short will need to see an effort to get below this level to encourage further selling.

On the hourly chart the 1.3600 is the support from the broken trendline.  Being above  it and the 100 and 200 hour MA keep the corrective trend in tact for the pair. 

USDCAD moves below 100 hour MA

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:58 AM PDT

The USDCAD has moved back to and below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0272 level. The Industrial Product prices rose by more than expected today coming in at +0.5% vs -0.5% expected.  This may be influencing sentiment.  The 1.0203 level is the next close target to give bears confidence to the downside.  Yesterday there were 3 lows at the level.  Below that, the 1.0156 level is where the 38.2% and the 200 hour MA are found. 

The USDCAD has been in a non trending environment this week. The high was reached on Monday. The low on Tuesday.  Today, the price extended toward the high but that was rejected.  The 100 hour MA is going sideways indicative of the non-trend week.   

Markets seem to be trying to get their feet under them this morning.

Fed’s Plosser says Fed moves undermine credibility

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:48 AM PDT

    • Operation twist will do little for growth and jobs
    • Warns against steps that will fuei midterm inflation
    • 2% for 2011, sees 3% in 2012

Plosser is known to be a hawk. His comments are at odds with Bernanke.

US Jobless Claims Drop Under 400K to 391K

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Jobless Claims:  Survey: 420K  Actual: 391K  Prior: 423K  Revised: 428K

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3730K  Actual: 3729K  Prior: 3727K  Revisad: 3749K

(Annualized):   Survey: 1.2%   Actual: 1.3%   Prior: 1.0%  

Personal Consumption:   Survey: 0.4%   Actual: 0.7%   Prior: 0.4%  

GDP Price Index:   Survey: 2.4%   Actual: 2.5%   Prior: 2.4%  

Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 2.2%   Actual: 2.3%   Prior: 2.2%

The US jobess claims are the surprise but seasonals influence

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Falling to 391k with expectations of 420K. This was the lowest since April 1st 2011.
However, the labor department is saying the drop is reflective of calendar issues. As a result seasonal adjustments made the number seem better than it really was

The USD GDP comes in at 1.3% annualized. Consumption was revised to plus 0.7%. Remember this is old news.

Canada IPPI Improves & Raw Materials Fall

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Industrial Production Price Index MoM:    Survey:  -0.5%    Actual: 0.5%    Prior: -0.3%   Revised: -0.4%

Raw Materials Price Index:      Survey: -2.5%   Actual:  -3.2%     Prior: -1.2%    Revised: -1.1%

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 29th is available for viewing

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:17 AM PDT

US GDP, Personal Consumption, Jobless Claims All to be Released at 8:30AM

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 04:38 AM PDT
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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDCHF back above the 200 hour MA at 0.8947

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT

The USDCHF fell lower in London but found support against the low from yesterday (at 0.8923) and the 50% retracement level at the 0.8913 level.   The move lower today was able to breach below the close from yesterday at the 0.8956 level and the 200 hour MA at the 0.8947 level (currently – green line in the chart above).   The rebound higher in NY has the price currently just above these levels. Traders will want to see momentum higher from these points.

The price high for the day comes in just short of the 0.9000 level (at 0.8999)  and will be upside target resistance if the price can remain bid above the 0.8947/0.8956 area.  The 100 hour MA at the 0.9033 is another upside target for the pair should momentum continue.

If the 0.8947 level is not able to hold support, look for a more serious test of the 50% retracement support at the 0.8913 level as the day progresses. 

 

Feds Hoenig says US LT growth could be cut to 2.5% from 3%

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:45 AM PDT

  • US Monetary policy encouraged consumption
  • Interest rates to remain low for at least 2 years

GBPUSD stuck in a narrow range and looking for a break

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:40 AM PDT

The GBPUSD is trading in a narrow range today of around 72 pips from high to low. The current price is near the middle of the trading range and near the 100 and 200 bar MA levels (see chart above).  Those levels come in at the 1.5634-39  area. The close yesterday was 1.5631. The area between the 1.5631 to 39 area is the balance for bullish and bearish today.  Move above look for test and extension higher. Move below and look for an move toward the low and extension lower

On the hourly chart below, the price is has support below at the 200 hour MA (green line) and trendline at the 1.5595 area. On the topside, a move above the 1.5646 level opens the door for a test of the highs. 1.5705 is the obvious next target overhead and above that the 1.5735 top channel trendline will be in play as a target. 

Fitch affirms Luxembourg AAA

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:24 AM PDT

The outlook is stable.

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today, Sep 28 at 10:00 AM ET

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:20 AM PDT

Ask the Chartist with James Chen

Please join us today (Wednesday, September 28) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/270952585 .

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.28.2011

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:44 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The Euro had an impressive comeback this morning-even with the Greek debt issue, and the European banks needing additional capital-the  markets perceive that the EU will come to the rescue.
The Greek Parliament passed the controversial property tax bill, that was needed to be passed in order for the country to avoid a default, and continue to get additional bailout funds.

On the US political front-the Obama administration’s $447 billion jobs plan is still being worked on, and hopefully this will lower the unemployment rate-and get people back to work. 
As the plan is based on tax cuts-many investors are concerned that once the tax breaks end, there will be a big jump in taxes.  This may work in the short end- but the long term effect may be disastrous-as we try to pay for this, along with our other overwhelming outstanding debt obligations.

Durable Goods orders came out at -.1% for August.  July orders were revised to 4%  versus 4.1%.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD heads toward intraday support areas

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:39 AM PDT

The EURUSD is moving down toward intraday support areas. On the hourly chart above the price has support against a trendline at the 1.3605 level. The 200 hour MA is at 1.3598

On the 5 minute chart below the 50% of the days trading range at the 1.36149 level, and 100 bar MA are at 1.3513 is attracting buyers/profit takers.  A move below the 1.3513 level should lead toward a test of the 1.3598 level.  The 200 bar MA (green line in the chart below) is at the the 1.3596 level and reinforces the level as key level in the early NY trade.

US Durable Goods Orders Improve to -0.10% From -1.00%

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:38 AM PDT

Durable Goods come in as expected

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:35 AM PDT

The numbers were a touch better actually at -0.1% for headline and ex transportation vs expectations for -0.2%.

Capital Goods Orders non defense and ex aircraft which is a measure of business spending rose by 1.1% vs expectations of 0.4%. Last month was revised to -0.2% vs -1.5%. This is a bright spot in the US economy.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 28th 2011

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:24 AM PDT

German’s inflation accelerated to fastest in 3 years

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:04 AM PDT

Energy and clothing contributed to the gains. Inflation rose by 2.8% vs 2.5% in August.  This was the highest since September 2008.  The estimate was for a rise to 2.6%. The ECB as a hold targets 2% inflation. The higher number may keep the ECB on hold. There has been speculation that ECB would look toward lowering rates again soon.

US stocks up in premarket trade

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:54 AM PDT

Nasdaq is up 11, S&P is up 6.30, Dow Jones futures are up 63
Euro Stoxx index is up 0.15%
FTSE is down 0.22%
France’s CAC Index is up 0.02%
German Dax is up 0.31%

Oil is down $0.40

US Durable Goods Orders Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:51 AM PDT

Finnish PM says confident Eurozone will agree on collateral with a few day/weeks

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:50 AM PDT

Finland is demanding collateral in exchange for contribution to the second Greek bailout.  Finland approved the enhanced powers for the 440 billion EURO bailout funds.  This would take the role of bond buying off the ECBs hands and put it with the EFSF.  Finland approved this measure today. They are joined by Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg, Greece, Ireland and Slovenia.  Germany is scheduled to vote tomorrow.  There were reports yesterday that there were members of German Chancellor Merkel who were leaning toward the “no” side.  Nevertheless, the measure is expected to pass and may help keep the EURUSD supported on dips. 

It is after the vote that I think the market is more interested in.

US Mortgage Applications rise 9.3%. Led by refinancings in the current week

Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:31 AM PDT

The Purchase index rose by 2.6% while refinancings rose by a greater 11.2%

The 30 yr mortgage rate fell to 4.24% while the 15 year mortgage rose to 3.47% from 3.46%.
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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Germans Schaeuble says they will get the EFSF votes

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:31 AM PDT

USD/CHF Pulls Back within Strong Bullish Trend

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:28 AM PDT

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Tuesday (9/27/2011) has pulled back yet again in what is turning out to resemble a well-formed bullish trend characterized by strong breakouts to the upside interspersed with bearish pullbacks, or retracements. If price action continues this pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the uptrend that was started early in September on the strong breakout above the previous long-term 15-month downtrend, should gain further strength. After that breakout, price has gone on to breakout above progressively higher resistance levels, including the 0.8275, 0.8550, and 0.8900 price regions. The next major resistance level to the upside resides around the 0.9300 price region, which the pair targeted but was unable to reach late last week before correcting back to the 0.8900 region today. If the 0.8900 area is able to hold, price should once again target the 0.9300 level and a continuation of the new uptrend for USD/CHF. A breakdown of this level could presage a sideways consolidation for the pair going forward.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:25 AM PDT

Talking Technicals with James Chen

Please join us today (Tuesday, Sept 27) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/273776000 .

Head of Finnish Parliament committee sure they will approve EFSF tomorrow

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:17 AM PDT

But not in favor of leveraging EFSF

The Forex Traders Course this Tuesday at 4:00 PM with Greg and Shawn

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:15 AM PDT

The Forex Traders Course this Tuesday at 4:00 PM with Greg and Shawn. We will focus on key elements of the trading process and the steps that should be taken when evaluating a trading pair (currency pair) for suitability. This will be an intensive class that will be geared towards intermediate and advanced traders. Sign up now, its free to attend.

Merkel tells party MP Greek default cannot be ruled out

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:14 AM PDT

Consumer Confidence Slightly Lower, Richmond Fed Improves

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:01 AM PDT

Consumer Confidence: Survey: 46.0  Actual: 45.4     Prior: 44.5  Revision: 45.2

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:  Survey: -11   Actual: -6  Prior: -10

 

Report that 11 deputies from Merkel CDU are to vote against EFSF in trial votes

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:56 AM PDT

  • 2 abstain
  • A total of 13 no votes would still be enough.

The official vote on EFSF will take place on Thursday.

Despite the headline, the EURUSD remains bid and is above the key target 1.3630 level. Dow is up 258 points

Austrian Finance Minister says worried about larger EU countries needing aid

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:42 AM PDT

  • Adds that Greek haircut would cost Austrian taxpayers
  • Troika found shortcomings in implementation of Greek law and privatization measures.

EURUSD tests next key target

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:24 AM PDT

The next key target is being tested in the EURUSD at the 1.3629 level where 200 hour MA and 61.8% retracement is found.  The pair continues to be bought on the back of strong stocks and risk on trade.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) has not been approached to participate in bailout plan

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:07 AM PDT

It was reported yesterday that the EIB would be involved in a plan whereby they would issue a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that would be used as collateral for leveraging the EFSF liquidity. They are now denying their involvement

GBPUSD holds support and moves to new highs

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:02 AM PDT

The GBPUSD moved above the 50% of the move down from the September 15th high to the low reached last week and it also moved above the 200 hour MA. From there the price corrected and held the 50% level at the  1.5596 level.  Now the pair has moved higher and is making new highs as the Case Schiller Home price comes in better. The pair is benefitting from “risk on” that has the dollar being sold.  The next target  above is trendline and 61.8% at the 1.5660 area.

S&P Data Proves Positive

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:02 AM PDT

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 142.77  Prior: 141.30 Revised: 141.48

S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:    Survey: 0.10%     Actual:  0.05%     Prior: -0.06%     Revised:  0.04%

S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):   Survey: -4.40%     Actual: -4.11%     Prior: -4.52%    Revised: -4.40%

German Finance Minister says increasing the EFSF is a silly idea

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 05:41 AM PDT

Schaeuble says some AAA states would lose their rating.
S&P warned that leveraging of the EFSF through the ECB, would put into question the AAA rating of Germany and France.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.27.2011

Posted: 27 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The Aussie and Kiwi rallied in overnight trading-as Asian equity markets also rallied-indicating that investors are seeking higher-yielding assets in these uncertain economic times.
In Euro Zone business-The Greek Finance Minister stated that the EU should stick with the deal that was agreed to in July. He feels that the EZ should be focused on growth-not looking for a default.  The Greek Parliament has a vote scheduled today regarding additional austerity measures that were imposed by the ECB,EU and IMF so that additional bailout funds can be distributed to the country.  One of the austerity measures is a new property tax which is going to be a tough sell to their fellow countrymen-but is expected to pass during today’s vote.

World equity markets rallied, as US Futures are also posting higher numbers as we speak.  So it looks like the equity markets will open higher-and let’s hope they stay that way during the day.

Gold and Oil are also trading in positive territory this morning.

    TODAY’S RELEASES    
TIME       FOR EST. PRIOR
9:00A.M. S&P /CS 20 CITY MoM%SA JULY 0.10% -0.06%
9:00A.M. S&P /CS COMPOSITE 20 YoY JULY -4.55% -4.52%
9:00A.M. S&P /CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND       JULY   141.3O
10:00A.M. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE   SEPT. 46.O 44.5O
10:00A.M. RICHMOND FED MANUFAC.INDEX SEPT. -9.O -1O.O

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
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Monday, September 26, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US New Home Sales Month over Month Drop

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 07:01 AM PDT

New Home Sales:   Survey: 293K     Actual: 295K     Prior: 298K      Revised:  302K

New Home Sales (MoM):  Survey: -1.7%     Actual: -2.3%     Prior: -0.7%     Revised:  -0.3%

The ECB bought 3.9 billion of bond purchases in the last week

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 06:31 AM PDT

This was less than the 10 billion that was expected.

Feds Sarah Raskin additional policy accomodation is warranted

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 06:16 AM PDT

  • Considerabel uncertainty on effects of Fed actions
  • Operation twist should bring down long term yields
  • Excess housing may limit effects of Fed actions
  • Tighter credit may limit effects on policy
  • Effects of monetary easing should not encourage Fed
  • August employment was bleak

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 26th 2011

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Worsens to -0.43 From -0.06

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 05:33 AM PDT

ECB considers covered bond purchases and rate cut at the next meeting

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:30 AM PDT

ECB’s Knot

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 02:59 AM PDT

  • Calls for automatic sanction and compulsory recovery programs for Euro-zone countries with high deficits.
  • Decision making for sanctions should go to independent budgetary authority, not the ECB.
  • Calls for more effective tax measures, budget cuts and market reforms for south European states.
  • Greece is not a hopeless case, as with privatizations, state debt would be cut to manageable proportions.
  • Sees common Euro-bonds are inevitable.
  • Does not support a write-off of Greek debt.

BOE’s Broadbent

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 02:56 AM PDT

  • Re-balancing of UK economy to take longer than the 1990′s, 3-4 years and more QE.
  • Monetary policy isn’t powerless, but shouldn’t be viewed as cure-all.
  • QE is less powerful than it would be if banking system was stronger.
  • The distinction between QE and cutting rates is sometimes overdone.
  • Purchase of government bonds with central bank money is preferable form of QE.
  • BOE has discretion about how quickly it gets CPI back to target.
  • Without risk-taking, hard to reallocate capital.
  • We’ve been removal of capacity in the economy.
  • No limit to size of BOE asset purchases.
  • Euro-zone will have influences on UK monetary policy.
  • Trade off between scale of QE and uncertainty about its impact.
  • MPC is in a better position than 2 years ago to judge right scale of QE.

 

German Ifo business climate 107.5; better than expected.

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 01:03 AM PDT

ECB’s Nowotny says ECB interest rate cuts cannot be exluded, should not further expand its non-standard measures tool-kit.

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 12:45 AM PDT

ECB’s Mersch

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 12:19 AM PDT

  • The ECB is independent.
  • We are determined not to let markets slide into a dysfunctional state and Europe is showing it is able to deliver its promises.
  • Wild expectations about ECB rate cut show some people a loss in direction.
  • Does not see unified European economic government in the near term, but need to make EUR work according to paper.

9-26 Calender

Posted: 25 Sep 2011 10:54 PM PDT
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