Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF back above the 200 hour MA at 0.8947
• Feds Hoenig says US LT growth could be cut to 2.5% from 3%
• GBPUSD stuck in a narrow range and looking for a break
• Fitch affirms Luxembourg AAA
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today, Sep 28 at 10:00 AM ET
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.28.2011
• EURUSD heads toward intraday support areas
• US Durable Goods Orders Improve to -0.10% From -1.00%
• Durable Goods come in as expected
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 28th 2011
• German’s inflation accelerated to fastest in 3 years
• US stocks up in premarket trade
• US Durable Goods Orders Due at 8:30AM
• Finnish PM says confident Eurozone will agree on collateral with a few day/weeks
• US Mortgage Applications rise 9.3%. Led by refinancings in the current week

USDCHF back above the 200 hour MA at 0.8947 Posted: 28 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT The USDCHF fell lower in London but found support against the low from yesterday (at 0.8923) and the 50% retracement level at the 0.8913 level.   The move lower today was able to breach below the close from yesterday at the 0.8956 level and the 200 hour MA at the 0.8947 level (currently – green line in the chart above).   The rebound higher in NY has the price currently just above these levels. Traders will want to see momentum higher from these points. The price high for the day comes in just short of the 0.9000 level (at 0.8999)  and will be upside target resistance if the price can remain bid above the 0.8947/0.8956 area.  The 100 hour MA at the 0.9033 is another upside target for the pair should momentum continue. If the 0.8947 level is not able to hold support, look for a more serious test of the 50% retracement support at the 0.8913 level as the day progresses.

Feds Hoenig says US LT growth could be cut to 2.5% from 3% Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:45 AM PDT US Monetary policy encouraged consumption Interest rates to remain low for at least 2 years

GBPUSD stuck in a narrow range and looking for a break Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:40 AM PDT The GBPUSD is trading in a narrow range today of around 72 pips from high to low. The current price is near the middle of the trading range and near the 100 and 200 bar MA levels (see chart above).  Those levels come in at the 1.5634-39  area. The close yesterday was 1.5631. The area between the 1.5631 to 39 area is the balance for bullish and bearish today.  Move above look for test and extension higher. Move below and look for an move toward the low and extension lower On the hourly chart below, the price is has support below at the 200 hour MA (green line) and trendline at the 1.5595 area. On the topside, a move above the 1.5646 level opens the door for a test of the highs. 1.5705 is the obvious next target overhead and above that the 1.5735 top channel trendline will be in play as a target.

Fitch affirms Luxembourg AAA Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:24 AM PDT The outlook is stable.

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today, Sep 28 at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 28 Sep 2011 06:20 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, September 28) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/270952585 .

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.28.2011 Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:44 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro had an impressive comeback this morning-even with the Greek debt issue, and the European banks needing additional capital-the  markets perceive that the EU will come to the rescue. The Greek Parliament passed the controversial property tax bill, that was needed to be passed in order for the country to avoid a default, and continue to get additional bailout funds. On the US political front-the Obama administration’s $447 billion jobs plan is still being worked on, and hopefully this will lower the unemployment rate-and get people back to work.  As the plan is based on tax cuts-many investors are concerned that once the tax breaks end, there will be a big jump in taxes.  This may work in the short end- but the long term effect may be disastrous-as we try to pay for this, along with our other overwhelming outstanding debt obligations. Durable Goods orders came out at -.1% for August.  July orders were revised to 4%  versus 4.1%. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD heads toward intraday support areas Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:39 AM PDT The EURUSD is moving down toward intraday support areas. On the hourly chart above the price has support against a trendline at the 1.3605 level. The 200 hour MA is at 1.3598 On the 5 minute chart below the 50% of the days trading range at the 1.36149 level, and 100 bar MA are at 1.3513 is attracting buyers/profit takers.  A move below the 1.3513 level should lead toward a test of the 1.3598 level.  The 200 bar MA (green line in the chart below) is at the the 1.3596 level and reinforces the level as key level in the early NY trade.

US Durable Goods Orders Improve to -0.10% From -1.00% Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:38 AM PDT

Durable Goods come in as expected Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:35 AM PDT The numbers were a touch better actually at -0.1% for headline and ex transportation vs expectations for -0.2%. Capital Goods Orders non defense and ex aircraft which is a measure of business spending rose by 1.1% vs expectations of 0.4%. Last month was revised to -0.2% vs -1.5%. This is a bright spot in the US economy.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 28th 2011 Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:24 AM PDT

German’s inflation accelerated to fastest in 3 years Posted: 28 Sep 2011 05:04 AM PDT Energy and clothing contributed to the gains. Inflation rose by 2.8% vs 2.5% in August.  This was the highest since September 2008.  The estimate was for a rise to 2.6%. The ECB as a hold targets 2% inflation. The higher number may keep the ECB on hold. There has been speculation that ECB would look toward lowering rates again soon.

US stocks up in premarket trade Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:54 AM PDT Nasdaq is up 11, S&P is up 6.30, Dow Jones futures are up 63 Euro Stoxx index is up 0.15% FTSE is down 0.22% France’s CAC Index is up 0.02% German Dax is up 0.31% Oil is down $0.40

US Durable Goods Orders Due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:51 AM PDT

Finnish PM says confident Eurozone will agree on collateral with a few day/weeks Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:50 AM PDT Finland is demanding collateral in exchange for contribution to the second Greek bailout.  Finland approved the enhanced powers for the 440 billion EURO bailout funds.  This would take the role of bond buying off the ECBs hands and put it with the EFSF.  Finland approved this measure today. They are joined by Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg, Greece, Ireland and Slovenia.  Germany is scheduled to vote tomorrow.  There were reports yesterday that there were members of German Chancellor Merkel who were leaning toward the “no” side.  Nevertheless, the measure is expected to pass and may help keep the EURUSD supported on dips.  It is after the vote that I think the market is more interested in.

US Mortgage Applications rise 9.3%. Led by refinancings in the current week Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:31 AM PDT The Purchase index rose by 2.6% while refinancings rose by a greater 11.2% The 30 yr mortgage rate fell to 4.24% while the 15 year mortgage rose to 3.47% from 3.46%.

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