Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Week Ahead in Trading this Monday 9:30 AM
• Forex Basics webinar: What is a Moving Average? This Monday 4:00 PM
• USDCHF “goosed” up to the 200 hour MA, but moves back down
• USDCAD falls. Head and Shoulder formation
• Moody’s expects Portugal to go through double dip recession
• EURUSD moves back toward the 38.2% of the weeks range.
• Germany postpones ESM (Euro Stability Mechnism) legislation
• BNP stock suspended limit down.
• GBPUSD breaks above trendline and scoots higher

Week Ahead in Trading this Monday 9:30 AM Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:15 PM PDT Week Ahead in Trading this Monday 9:30 AM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell- Register now

Forex Basics webinar: What is a Moving Average? This Monday 4:00 PM Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:15 PM PDT Forex Basics webinar: What is a Moving Average? This Monday 4:00 PM with FXDD’s Forex Trainer Shawn Powell. We will explore the concept of what a moving average is, how to apply them in your own trading and the various ways that they can be set up to maximize what they are showing you. Register now

USDCHF “goosed” up to the 200 hour MA, but moves back down Posted: 16 Sep 2011 11:37 AM PDT In what was likely just an order upsetting the quiet market balance, the USDCHF moved up to the 100 hour MA at the 0.8772 level (high reached 0.8774) but then came back off.  The price has now been contained by the 100 hour MA on the topside and the 200 hour MA (green line) on the downside (at the 0.8731 level currently).  Closing in between the two extremes will leave next week to decide “bullish” or “bearish” on a break higher (above the 100 hour MA) or break below (below the 200 hour MA). The USDCHF made its high on Monday and low on Thursday. Today is an up day, and holding above the upward sloping 200 bar MA keeps the bullish side favored but there are reasons to remain cautious. For one, staying below the 100 hour MA keeps a bearish bias. Also, if you look at the 200 day MA (see chart below), the price has resistance against that key level. ON Monday, the price moved above this level at the 0.8825.  A move above this level is needed to get the bulls more excited about the upside potential.

USDCAD falls. Head and Shoulder formation Posted: 16 Sep 2011 11:23 AM PDT There is market chatter of how the  USDCAD has broken below neckline support of a head and shoulders formation.  A break is supposed to lead to a sharp move down. The target is equal to the distance from the neck to the top of the head (in this case from 0.9828 to 1.0024 or 196 pips), subtracted from the right neckline (from 0.9844).  If that measurement is fulfilled, the price would reach to 0.9650.  I personally perfer not to become married to a  target on the head and shoulder, but can respect the bearish bias it gives.  Instead I wlll look for targets along the way. The 0.9650 is one of those targets.  Looking at the daily chart, the next target comes in at the 200 day MA. That level comes in at the 0.9776 level currently.  Below that on the daily chart is the 100 day MA at the 0.9722 level.  From there, looking toward 0.9650 is more in focus.  Failure to reach the targets, threaten a reversal for the pair. On the topside,  the 0.9820-28 level should provide resistance (see chart below). Staying below this area, keeps the bears in charge of the pairs bias.

Moody’s expects Portugal to go through double dip recession Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:52 AM PDT

EURUSD moves back toward the 38.2% of the weeks range. Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:42 AM PDT The EURUSD is pushing back toward the 38.2% of the weeks trading range at the 1.3767 level.  The price fell below this level in early NY trade but quickly rebounded.  Since that time weakish US data has fought a declining overseas stock market and concerns about Euro stability. The latest taking charge.  There is a report now that participation in Greek private debt restructuring is below expectations at 75%. This is below the 90% level expected. This has added to the downside pressure. Below the 1.3767 level,  the 200 hour MA and trendline support comes in at the 1.3727 area. This is the next key target for pair on a break.

Germany postpones ESM (Euro Stability Mechnism) legislation Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:35 AM PDT http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/4/3/164994034.html Other news that is effecting the EURUSD is from a report that Germany has postponed ESM legislation until after the year end. This is a Eurozone safety net that is to replace the ESFS in 2013.

BNP stock suspended limit down. Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:28 AM PDT French Bank BNP Paribas stock price has been suspended limit down. Shares are down over 10%.   Thsi is helping to contribute to the rotation back down in the EURUSD which has been on a roller coaster ride over the last hour or so of trading.    The pair is back below the 1.3808 area and will look for that to hold resistance.

GBPUSD breaks above trendline and scoots higher Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:21 AM PDT The GBPUSD broke above trendline resistance at the 1.5822 and scooted higher. The price has target tressitance now at the 1.4849 which is the 38.2% of the move down from September 8th. Above that the high from yesterday and the 13th of September at the 1.5867 area, and above the 200 hour MA at the 1.5873. On the downside, the market will be looking for the broken trendline to hold support at the 1.5822 area.

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