Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Portuguese PM says save 100 million Euros due to cut in adminstration
• Oil inventory data mixed. Crude oil inventories fall sharply though
• Austrian Finance Minister: Special meeting to be called on EFSF
• Austrian Parliament does not approve EFSF upgrade.
• USDCHF is down but grind is slow and support buyers remain
• Business inventories rise by a less than expected 0.4%
• US Business Inventories Fall to 0.5% From 0.4% Survey and 0.3% Prior
• EURUSD tests 38.2% of days range in up and down action
• Nowotney say ECB bond buys are only temporary
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today at 10:00 AM ET “ON AIR NOW”
• Germans Roesler (Economic minister) says Italy is showing budget discipline
• EURUSD falls back below 100 hour MA. This level and 1.3704 will be eyed.
• ECB Noyer says will make sure banks increase in capital does not effect French growth
• Fitch downgrade 5 Spanish regions outlook negative. EURUSD falls below 100 hour MA
• Geithner comments on CNBC

Portuguese PM says save 100 million Euros due to cut in adminstration Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:35 AM PDT The Portuguese Prime Minister is on the newswires saying that they will save 100 million Euros on administration cuts in 2012. Plans to have a 27% cut in central administration directors.

Oil inventory data mixed. Crude oil inventories fall sharply though Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:32 AM PDT Gasoline inventories up 2 million barrels Distilates inventories up 1.7 million barrels But, Crude oil inventories fall a large 6.7 million barrels

Austrian Finance Minister: Special meeting to be called on EFSF Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:25 AM PDT Only rejected changing agenda. They will have a special meeting on the EFSF which could allow for allowing more funds to the bailout fund. This may result in a delay (according to sources) until October. There are no details on what the “agenda” is but needless to say the markets are very much sensitive to comments.

Austrian Parliament does not approve EFSF upgrade. Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:16 AM PDT The EURUSD falls sharply on the news. The Austrians cannot participate in the September 21st vote to increase funding for the EFSF bond purchases bailout fund.    There is also a move out of risk pairs liek the AUDUSD.

USDCHF is down but grind is slow and support buyers remain Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:09 AM PDT The USDCHF is down on the day and moved to new 3 day lows for the pair. The fall breached the 38.2% of the move up from the low on September 6th (the day after intervention) and the high reached on September 12th. That level comes in at the 0.87769 level. The price decline moved below yesterdays low, but rebounded and is now back above the 38.2% at the 0.87769 area.   Staying above this level should lead to a further boost with a move above the 100 hour MA at the 0.8800 the next key target above that needs to be breached.

Business inventories rise by a less than expected 0.4% Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:01 AM PDT This is less than the 0.5% expected. The inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.27 months. The less than forecast rise is perhaps indicative of a reluctance to hold inventories.

US Business Inventories Fall to 0.5% From 0.4% Survey and 0.3% Prior Posted: 14 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT

EURUSD tests 38.2% of days range in up and down action Posted: 14 Sep 2011 06:46 AM PDT The 100 hour MA level at the 1. 3722 area currently held upside resistance and the price rotated back lower.  The pair fell to the 38.2% of the days trading range and held support. Now the price is back above the 1.3700 level as the price swings to the upside and to the downside.  Short term traders seem to be in control in the NY session at least as these technical levels are holding.  There are comments from European representative which are looking to keep the EURUSD supported.  Will the market believe?  Watch the 1.3687 area below. A move below targets the 100 bar MA, 200 bar MA and 50% retracement area. On the topside the 1.3722 area remains a key level.  On breaks, look for momentum.

Nowotney say ECB bond buys are only temporary Posted: 14 Sep 2011 06:39 AM PDT Not appropriate to talk about Greek insolvency Global growth has slowed

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today at 10:00 AM ET “ON AIR NOW” Posted: 14 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, September 14) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/774736593 .

Germans Roesler (Economic minister) says Italy is showing budget discipline Posted: 14 Sep 2011 06:32 AM PDT Important step in the direction of stability union ECB is independent and cannot be influenced

EURUSD falls back below 100 hour MA. This level and 1.3704 will be eyed. Posted: 14 Sep 2011 06:14 AM PDT The price of the EURUSD has fallen below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3725 level (currently and moving lower) and also below the 1.3704 level which was highs and lows in the intraday chart below.  The 38.2% retracement of the days range is the next target to breach at the 1.3687 level (see below).  The 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green line in the chart below) at the 1.3669 is joined with the 50% of the days range. This level should be key support today for the pair if the momentum back lower can continue. On the topside, look for sellers against any attempt back toward the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above).  A move above the 100 hour MA would not be welcomed by shorts from above.

ECB Noyer says will make sure banks increase in capital does not effect French growth Posted: 14 Sep 2011 06:04 AM PDT

Fitch downgrade 5 Spanish regions outlook negative. EURUSD falls below 100 hour MA Posted: 14 Sep 2011 05:54 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved lower on the news by around 20 pips.The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.3726 level. This level will be eyed as resistance now in the pair.  On the downside, the next support target to breach is the 1.3704 level.  This was the orginal high for the day.

Geithner comments on CNBC Posted: 14 Sep 2011 05:43 AM PDT Political dysfunction in US/Europe Urges a focus on economy vs politics US has interest in Europe getting through problems Europe going to have to do more Stronger European countries have the capacity to help the weak and get through If congress is incapable of reacting, then the economy will be worse off Obama job plan not dead on arrival Have not heard any alternative. Will listen if proposed. Washington has to keep at it. Strategy is to heal and make the US a better place to invest. Over 10 years limit deductions that most fortunate American enjoy. Judgement is by doing this has least risk for growth and the economy. Make modest changes in tax that create the least risk to growth. Borrowing now at low rates is prudent Oil prices have come down enough to not hurt growth. Greece must be supported with money Recovery requires spending money now Growth should be stronger/around 2% Obama plan will make US economy stronger.

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