Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Germans Schaeuble says they will get the EFSF votes
• USD/CHF Pulls Back within Strong Bullish Trend
• Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET
• Head of Finnish Parliament committee sure they will approve EFSF tomorrow
• The Forex Traders Course this Tuesday at 4:00 PM with Greg and Shawn
• Merkel tells party MP Greek default cannot be ruled out
• Consumer Confidence Slightly Lower, Richmond Fed Improves
• Report that 11 deputies from Merkel CDU are to vote against EFSF in trial votes
• Austrian Finance Minister says worried about larger EU countries needing aid
• EURUSD tests next key target
• The European Investment Bank (EIB) has not been approached to participate in bailout plan
• GBPUSD holds support and moves to new highs
• S&P Data Proves Positive
• German Finance Minister says increasing the EFSF is a silly idea
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.27.2011

Germans Schaeuble says they will get the EFSF votes Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:31 AM PDT

USD/CHF Pulls Back within Strong Bullish Trend Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:28 AM PDT USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Tuesday (9/27/2011) has pulled back yet again in what is turning out to resemble a well-formed bullish trend characterized by strong breakouts to the upside interspersed with bearish pullbacks, or retracements. If price action continues this pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the uptrend that was started early in September on the strong breakout above the previous long-term 15-month downtrend, should gain further strength. After that breakout, price has gone on to breakout above progressively higher resistance levels, including the 0.8275, 0.8550, and 0.8900 price regions. The next major resistance level to the upside resides around the 0.9300 price region, which the pair targeted but was unable to reach late last week before correcting back to the 0.8900 region today. If the 0.8900 area is able to hold, price should once again target the 0.9300 level and a continuation of the new uptrend for USD/CHF. A breakdown of this level could presage a sideways consolidation for the pair going forward. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:25 AM PDT Please join us today (Tuesday, Sept 27) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/273776000 .

Head of Finnish Parliament committee sure they will approve EFSF tomorrow Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:17 AM PDT But not in favor of leveraging EFSF

The Forex Traders Course this Tuesday at 4:00 PM with Greg and Shawn Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:15 AM PDT The Forex Traders Course this Tuesday at 4:00 PM with Greg and Shawn. We will focus on key elements of the trading process and the steps that should be taken when evaluating a trading pair (currency pair) for suitability. This will be an intensive class that will be geared towards intermediate and advanced traders. Sign up now, its free to attend.

Merkel tells party MP Greek default cannot be ruled out Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:14 AM PDT

Consumer Confidence Slightly Lower, Richmond Fed Improves Posted: 27 Sep 2011 07:01 AM PDT Consumer Confidence: Survey: 46.0  Actual: 45.4     Prior: 44.5  Revision: 45.2 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:  Survey: -11   Actual: -6  Prior: -10

Report that 11 deputies from Merkel CDU are to vote against EFSF in trial votes Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:56 AM PDT 2 abstain A total of 13 no votes would still be enough. The official vote on EFSF will take place on Thursday. Despite the headline, the EURUSD remains bid and is above the key target 1.3630 level. Dow is up 258 points

Austrian Finance Minister says worried about larger EU countries needing aid Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:42 AM PDT Adds that Greek haircut would cost Austrian taxpayers Troika found shortcomings in implementation of Greek law and privatization measures.

EURUSD tests next key target Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:24 AM PDT The next key target is being tested in the EURUSD at the 1.3629 level where 200 hour MA and 61.8% retracement is found.  The pair continues to be bought on the back of strong stocks and risk on trade.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) has not been approached to participate in bailout plan Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:07 AM PDT It was reported yesterday that the EIB would be involved in a plan whereby they would issue a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that would be used as collateral for leveraging the EFSF liquidity. They are now denying their involvement

GBPUSD holds support and moves to new highs Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:02 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved above the 50% of the move down from the September 15th high to the low reached last week and it also moved above the 200 hour MA. From there the price corrected and held the 50% level at the  1.5596 level.  Now the pair has moved higher and is making new highs as the Case Schiller Home price comes in better. The pair is benefitting from “risk on” that has the dollar being sold.  The next target  above is trendline and 61.8% at the 1.5660 area.

S&P Data Proves Positive Posted: 27 Sep 2011 06:02 AM PDT S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 142.77  Prior: 141.30 Revised: 141.48 S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:    Survey: 0.10%     Actual:  0.05%     Prior: -0.06%     Revised:  0.04% S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):   Survey: -4.40%     Actual: -4.11%     Prior: -4.52%    Revised: -4.40%

German Finance Minister says increasing the EFSF is a silly idea Posted: 27 Sep 2011 05:41 AM PDT Schaeuble says some AAA states would lose their rating. S&P warned that leveraging of the EFSF through the ECB, would put into question the AAA rating of Germany and France.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.27.2011 Posted: 27 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT Good Morning: The Aussie and Kiwi rallied in overnight trading-as Asian equity markets also rallied-indicating that investors are seeking higher-yielding assets in these uncertain economic times. In Euro Zone business-The Greek Finance Minister stated that the EU should stick with the deal that was agreed to in July. He feels that the EZ should be focused on growth-not looking for a default.  The Greek Parliament has a vote scheduled today regarding additional austerity measures that were imposed by the ECB,EU and IMF so that additional bailout funds can be distributed to the country.  One of the austerity measures is a new property tax which is going to be a tough sell to their fellow countrymen-but is expected to pass during today’s vote. World equity markets rallied, as US Futures are also posting higher numbers as we speak.  So it looks like the equity markets will open higher-and let’s hope they stay that way during the day. Gold and Oil are also trading in positive territory this morning.     TODAY’S RELEASES     TIME       FOR EST. PRIOR 9:00A.M. S&P /CS 20 CITY MoM%SA JULY 0.10% -0.06% 9:00A.M. S&P /CS COMPOSITE 20 YoY JULY -4.55% -4.52% 9:00A.M. S&P /CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND       JULY   141.3O 10:00A.M. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE   SEPT. 46.O 44.5O 10:00A.M. RICHMOND FED MANUFAC.INDEX SEPT. -9.O -1O.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

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