Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- CSFB economist warns of rate cuts from ECB in the next two months
- USDCHF steps up from support through resistance levels one by one.
- GBPUSD defines and maintains its range
- AUDUSD falls below trendline and 100 hour MA
| CSFB economist warns of rate cuts from ECB in the next two months Posted: 02 Sep 2011 11:52 AM PDT The ECB is expected to announce their rate decision on September 8th 2011. |
| USDCHF steps up from support through resistance levels one by one. Posted: 02 Sep 2011 08:35 AM PDT
Looking at the 5 minute chart above, the pair has been stepping from level to level as it corrects from the lows. At step 1 the price moved above the channel trendline. That led to a test of point 2, the low from earlier in the trading day. From there the price moved above the 100 bar MA (blue line) toward the 61.8% retracement level. A correction down, held support against the 100 bar MA in the chart. From there, the price has moved back higher and looks to breach the 61.8% on its way to point 5 at the 200 bar MA. Look for sellers against the 200 bar MA at the 1.6273 level with stops above. Typically, when the 100 and 200 bar moving average are far apart as they are in this chart, staying above the 100 bar MA is bullish but, there is a pause at the 200 bar MA. |
| GBPUSD defines and maintains its range Posted: 02 Sep 2011 08:17 AM PDT
The 1.6167 area is downside support that has held on 3 separate occassions over the last 24 hours. On the topside the 38.2% of the move down at 1.6253 is also a low/high area over the last 3 days. In between is the traders preference as the week comes to a close.
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| AUDUSD falls below trendline and 100 hour MA Posted: 02 Sep 2011 07:49 AM PDT
The AUDUSD fell below trendline and 100 hour MA support at the 1.0692 and 1.0682 levels respectively. The price decline extended to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August 25th low at the 1.06298 (low reached 1.0634). The price bounced higher, but stalled right at the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). The price is now in between the support and resistance. Fighting for the bulls is that the economy in Australia is doing better on a relative basis. The market has been worried about the possiblity of a rate cut, but that risk has started to lessen. If there is QE3 this may also be supported of the “risk currency pairs” like the AUDUSD. Fighting for the bears is if the global economy heads closer to a recession, the thought of lowering rates could take root again and depending on how slow the global economy gets, the fact that AUDUSD has been one of the strongest currencies, means it has room to fall to. The holding or the 100 hour MA on the rebound is the last test and therefore keeps the bears in charge for the day. They will be looking for a break of the 1.0629 level (38.2%) for additional chance for satisfaction down to the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement at the 1.05888 level. If the 38.2% cannot be breached, however, the pendulum swings the other way for the market traders.
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