Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Wrap up show Friday at 12:30 PM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell
Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM
G7 and Greece make weekend risk high…
Feds Bullard says most potent weapon was QE3
German government regrets Stark is stepping down
Gold looking for that bid. $1863 is 100 hour MA
CNBC painting the bleak picture for Greece
EURUSD tests Fibonacci Support at the 1.3662 level. Care warranted…
USDJPY falls on safe haven flows
Report: Germany has proposed a plan to protect banks in case Greece defaults.
EURUSD targets (continued).
US Wholesale Inventories Rise to 0.8% from 0.7% and a Prior Figure of 0.6%
GBPUSD at key trendline on the daily
Rumors of a Greek default is “rubbish”: CNBC

Forex Wrap up show Friday at 12:30 PM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 02:26 PM PDT

Forex Wrap up show Friday at 12:30 PM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Register now

Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 01:30 PM PDT

Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM with Greg Micahlowski and Shawn Powell – Register now

G7 and Greece make weekend risk high…

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 12:51 PM PDT

It is another weekend where risk is elevated. The G7 is meeting and a comment or concerted action could be announced (not expected as most countries want a weaker currency). The Greece situation is a wild card. Greece denied. Germany warned. Most feel that the a default is inevitable. Will something happen this weekend? Not sure.

When risk is increased it is advised to lighten up positions and wait for the new week to start. Remember, the goal is to make steady money and above all not blow up. When markets are closed, if you are not in a profitable position, anything can happen.

Feds Bullard says most potent weapon was QE3

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 10:12 AM PDT

Also says growth above 2% in 2H is possible.
Chance of US recession is only modest.
Potential Greek default could be contained.
A long slog to come before US housing recovers
Europe resolution could take a couple of years.

EURUSD has moved higher and is back above the channel trendlines broken earlier. The move took traders by surprise as most (including myself) had resigned to weakness on Greece weekend default risk. That was not to be. Bullards comments eased some fear and squeezed the lower down shorts. Market more balanced at the lower levels now.

German government regrets Stark is stepping down

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 09:03 AM PDT

Gold looking for that bid. $1863 is 100 hour MA

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 09:00 AM PDT

With stocks down, Gold has started to move back higher. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1863 area. A move above that level opens the upside. The high for the day is 1885.

CNBC painting the bleak picture for Greece

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:55 AM PDT

Can’t meet payroll
No payment from the next tranche
GDP signals depression.
Little support for privitazation plan

Stock selling intensifies..

EURUSD tests Fibonacci Support at the 1.3662 level. Care warranted…

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:35 AM PDT

Weekend fear of a Greek default has the EURUSD trading at the days and lowest level since the end of February of this year. The 1.36623 level is the 61.8% of the 2011 range. THe 1.3674 level is trendline support. So far support has held. However, care should be in order. It is Friday. Weekend risk is unknown. Comments from official (Germany and Greece) are suggesting that an event out of Greece could happen (Germany says they have a plan, Greece denies a default – of course they would…). All of which makes traders nervous.

USDJPY falls on safe haven flows

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:27 AM PDT

The USDJPY has fallen sharply over the last half hour of trading. Safe haven flows on EU bank concerns has sent traders into the JPY. THe price fell below trendline support at the 77.54 level. This is now resistance above. On the downside, a break below the 77.42 level sends the pair lower.

Report: Germany has proposed a plan to protect banks in case Greece defaults.

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:11 AM PDT

There are no details to what the plan will be but the fact they have a plan, is moving closer to a default.

Worries in the market are that there are a number of banks who would be seriously effected (perhaps insolvent) if Greece defaults. This in turn could also lead to a series of secondary effects that could lead to the house of cards falling down.

The fact that Germany “has a plan” is comforting from one point, but worrisome from another. What if the plan is not strong enough?

EURUSD targets (continued).

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:00 AM PDT

A long time follower, Stephen Ward, also pointed out that the 1.3674 level is another downside target. This level is just above the 61.8% of the move up from the years low at the 1.2873 level to the years high at the 1.4939 level. That comes in at the 1.36623 level. Keep these targets in mind. There should be profit taking near the levels.

US Wholesale Inventories Rise to 0.8% from 0.7% and a Prior Figure of 0.6%

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:59 AM PDT

GBPUSD at key trendline on the daily

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:52 AM PDT

The GBPUSD is testing the trendline support at the 1.5905 level today (see daily chart above). The price has moved below this level today. The first dip below was followed by a sharp move back higher as the market rejected the move (see chart below). Over the last few hours, the price has been consolidating around the level with the 38.2% of the last leg providing a ceiling at the 1.5916 level. A move that takes the price back above the 1.5916 level is needed to help confirm the bottom may be in place for the day (1.5926,1.5937 and the 100 bar MA on the chart below would be upside targets). Sellers against the 1.5916 level, keep the downside as the favored bias with a potential to extend the downside.