Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EUR/USD Resumes Bearish Trend Bias
EURUSD moves toward 50% of move up from June 2010 low
Fed Bullard: Fed could ease further
USDJPY trying to push higher. 77.00 area approached
GBPUSD breaks through resistance at 1.5567
EURUSD stalling at support but markets downside bias remains
US Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in at 59.4. A touch better than expected
Chicago PMI comes in better at 60.4
EURUSD trading at support area.
Back up…Sorry for the technical problems.
KOF Economic Barometer weaker than expected
Eurozone CPI
French August consumer spending rises 0.2% m/m, as expected
Germany’s Roesler opposes leveraging rescue fund
German retail sales drop 2.9% in August

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 08:07 AM PDT

EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (9/30/2011) has begun a resumption of its bearish stance after making a bullish correction within the context of a strong and steep breakout downtrend. This new downtrend has its origins at the early September breakdown below a key wedge pattern and then below the 1.4000 price region, which represented a confluence of three important support factors: the 200-day simple moving average, a key uptrend support line extending back to the June 2010 low extreme, and the 1.4000 psychological support/resistance level. After the breakdown of that support confluence, price has displayed a strong bearish trend interspersed with regular bullish retracements. Most recently, after hitting the new downtrend’s low around 1.3360 in the beginning of this week (which is also around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last major bullish correction), and stopping shy of its 1.3300 downside target, price retraced once again before now resuming its bearish directional bias. In the event that the pair is able to hit its current downside target at 1.3300, the next key downside target within the currently prevailing downtrend resides around the important 1.3000 psychological support level.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

EURUSD moves toward 50% of move up from June 2010 low

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 08:01 AM PDT

Fed Bullard: Fed could ease further

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:59 AM PDT

Expects growth to pick next year
Fed has potent tool including QE.
He calls for a more rules based policy approach
Expects growth to pick up next year
He does not think the Fed should confine themselves to long time periods of inaction.

USDJPY trying to push higher. 77.00 area approached

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:40 AM PDT

The USDJPY based against the 100 and 200 hour MA today and has marched higher today. The move higher took the price out of the value area of the last 1/2 month of trading. The price is also above the 38.2% of the September range. A move above the 76.976/77.01 area should solicit stop buying. Amove back below the 76.77 would not be welcomed (the pattern is failures lead to sharp moves back down).

The BOJ and new administration has been chatting up efforts to weaken the JPY. The pair remains a safe haven play but PMI data last night came in below 50 last night (at 49.3) and Industrial Production was also weaker than expectations. This may help weaken the JPY (lead to a move higher in the pair).

GBPUSD breaks through resistance at 1.5567

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:29 AM PDT

The 38.2% of the days trading range and the 200 hour MA both converged at the 1.5567 level. The price initially found resistance at the level but has since pushed through. Now the 1.5560-67 is support for the pair.

The 100 hour MA comes in a the 1.5603 level. That will be a target resistance area for the pair now.

* My chart data is still not updated. Technology is working on it though..

EURUSD stalling at support but markets downside bias remains

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 07:05 AM PDT

The EURUSD has stalled between support at hte 1.3407-27 (low reached 1.3423), but the correction high has been tame with the high correction at 1.3444. Stocks are down 107 points. Nasdaq is down 36 and S& P is down 15 points

Resistance should be between 1.3459 and 1.3470.

US Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in at 59.4. A touch better than expected

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:57 AM PDT

Economic conditions 74.9 vs 68.7 in August
Economic outlook 49.4 vs 47.4 in August.

Chicago PMI comes in better at 60.4

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:47 AM PDT

Prices paid 62.3 vs 68.6
Production 63.9 vs 57.8
New orders 65.3 vs 56.9
Order backlogs 45.4 vs 49.6
Inventories 60.3 vs 52.9
Employment 60.6 vs 52.1
Supplier deliveries 51.9 vs 60.5

EURUSD trading at support area.

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:39 AM PDT

The 1.3427 level was the Feb 2011 low. The 1.3407 level is the 50% of the move up from June 2010 low. The market decline is stalling at the area. The topside will be watching 1.3459 and 1.3472 (38.2% of the move down from the last intraday high).

Back up…Sorry for the technical problems.

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT

The MT charts will be updated with data soon. Thank you for your patience.

KOF Economic Barometer weaker than expected

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 02:40 AM PDT

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.21, its lowest level in 2 years and weaker than the 1.41 expected.

Chf unaffected by news as Usd/Chf trades at .9020 and Eur/Chf at 1.2190.

Eurozone CPI

Posted: 30 Sep 2011 02:10 AM PDT

EZ CPI Flash Estimate y/y came ina t 3.0%, stronger than the 2.5% expected.

French August consumer spending rises 0.2% m/m, as expected

Posted: 29 Sep 2011 11:50 PM PDT