Friday, September 16, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD pushing higher above 200 hour MA but falls back down

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 07:01 AM PDT

 

The EURUSD has pushed higher as the Michigan Consumer confidence showed Economic outlook at the lowest level since 2000.   The move higher pushed above the 200 hour MA at the 1.3827 level but the price has since fallen back down in volatile trading.  The

Michigan Confidence comes out at 57.8 vs 57 expected

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 06:55 AM PDT

The Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in the current month to 57.8 from 55.7 last month. The EURUSD has pushed higher despite the better than expectation data and approaches the 200 bar MA.

EURUSD finds intraday support after dip below 38.2% retracement of the weeks range

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 06:17 AM PDT

The weaker than expected TIC data has helped push the EURUSD higher. The data has been on the low side over the last few months and may have the market concerned about the flow of funds from overseas into US assets/the dollar. From a technical perspective, the fall in the first few hours of NY trading took the price through the 38.2% of the weeks range but the price  bounced back quickly.

The next upside target comes in at the 1.3804-11 area where channel trendline from the 5 minute chart above, 38.2% of the move down from late yesterday, and 100bar MA on the 5 minute chart all cluster.  Above those levels and the target becomes the 1.3827 level which is the 200 hour MA and the high over the last 4 hours of trading.

US Net long Term TIC Flows below expectations

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 06:06 AM PDT

The Net Long Term TIC Flows came in less then expectations at 9.5B vs 30 B expectations The Total NET TIC Flows were also low at -51.8 B vs -29.4 B last month. The trend of the data have been to the downside since 85.527B in November 2010. Since then, 62B, 55B, 27B, 24B, a rise to 30B. Over the last 3 months, the numbers have come in at 24B, 3.4B and a small bounce but still low 9.5B this month (July data).

Clearly, the flow of funds are showing a reluctance toward the US assets including equities, bonds and notes. This may be in response to the debt ceiling concerns that gripped the market in July (this number was for the month of July). A bounce back in August will be eyed.

NY Morning Forex Commentary September 16 2011

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 05:15 AM PDT

Eurozone Current Account

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 01:12 AM PDT

Eurozone Current Account came in at a 12.9B deficit, weaker than the 5.6B expected.

Eur/Usd has felt the effects of this news as the pair has come off 30 points thus far to 1.3785.

Friday Forex Wrap Up New Time 11:00 AM Friday morning

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 02:24 PM PDT

Friday Forex Wrap Up New Time 11:00 AM Friday morning with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Register now

The Traders Course: Trading Near the Borderlines Rebroadcast

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 02:21 PM PDT

FXDD Forex Traders Course with Greg Michalowski this THURSDAY at 4:00 PM ET -

Today’s topic will be titled: “Trading Near the Borderlines. What does it mean?”

“Borderlines” are the areas that Greg Michalowski uses to describe key entry levels.  Many traders wonder what to do at the level? Why trade at those levels?  What to expect at those levels?  Greg will unlock his thoughts on these key trade levels and why they are so important for your trading. 

Watch the Rebrodcast now

S&P says Canada will probably not head back into recession

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 12:46 PM PDT

EURUSD moving back up toward the resistance at 1.3897

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 10:08 AM PDT

The EURUSD is moving back up toward the resistance against the 1.3897 resistance area. The level is the 38.2% of the move down from the August 2011 high (see chart above).  Looking  at the hourly chart the 1.3897 level is also the 61.8% of the move down from September 7th.   

Support now comes in at the 1.3854 to 1.3862. The levels represent the 200 hour MA and channel trendline support (see hourly chart above).

The NY Midday Forex Commentary for September 15th 2011

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 09:40 AM PDT

Forex Fast Track workshop Online and Live sessions October 12-15 2011

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 09:24 AM PDT

Forex Fast Track workshop- 2 days online, 1 day live in Phoenix with James Chen and Greg Michalowski

Accelerated Learning Online and Live in Phoenix Oct 15 2011

The workshop will consist of two interactive three-hour webinar sessions.  The first session will be on Wednesday, October 12th and the second on Thursday, October 13th, both at 6PM EDT each day.  The webinars will also be recorded. 

On Saturday, October 15th, James Chen, Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell will be in Phoenix to conclude the series with a full day of face-to-face training at the Scottsdale Marriott at McDowell Mountains.

What you will get:

  • Two days of Online Education
  • A Full Day of Live Training with FXDD's James Chen and Greg Michalowski
  • Hands on, intensive learning environment
 Beautiful Hotel and Surrounding area

  • Continental Breakfast
  • Certificate of Completion
  • Closing Cocktail Reception

Fourteen hours of Forex training by two industry professionals, with years of experience coming to your home town.  This type of opportunity does not come every day, so act now.

What does it cost?

FXDD is making a commitment to provide meaningful trading education to our clients.  We want you to succeed.  Although this course could cost thousands of dollars elsewhere, FXDD is offering the 14-hours of training with James and Greg for just $399.  As part of our dedication to your education, FXDD will take $200 of your investment and deposit it directly into your live trading account after graduation to help get you started.*    Call 212 791 3933 x7187 or email Shawn Powell  spowell@fxdd.com to register or for more details.

Gold Extends Pullback within Strong Bullish Trend

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 08:52 AM PDT

Gold Daily Chart

Gold (daily chart) as of Thursday (9/15/2011) has extended its pullback after hitting the latest all-time high of $1920 last week. The current bearish retracement is overdue, as the steep run-up from the early July low of $1477 was not indefinitely sustainable. Currently, price action has hit support offered by the trendline extending from that early July low, but the bearish correction does not yet appear to be over. A breakdown below the trendline could extend further down to $1730 support and possibly below. Despite this pullback, however, the overall long-term trend and directional bias continues to be to the upside. Once the bearish correction completes, any subsequent breakout above the $1920 high could make an initial upside target and new all-time high around the $2040 price region, which, in uncharted territory, is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the latest bearish correction.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

Lagarde to Greece: Implement and you will get the next tranche from the IMF

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 08:25 AM PDT

  • Greece must assure reform measures are implemented
  • European banks need to increase capital buffers.
  • For growth to happen credit has to be extended.
  • For banks to give credit they need a solid balance sheet
  • Banks need more capital to finance growth.

Gold comes under pressure Breaks trendline

Posted: 15 Sep 2011 08:10 AM PDT

Gold has broken below trendline support at $1786 and now looks toward the $1751 support level on the daily chart above. Before that support comes channel trendline support off the hourly chart below. That level comes in at 1759 currently (see chart below). 

 

Resistance at the 1789 level to 1793 area. 
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