Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDSGD tests intraday resistance at 1.2929 area
- Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast
- EURUSD back testing NY days highs at 1.3650
- Pending Home sales better than expected but down -1.2% MoM
- SNB official says will increase shift toward GBP over the coming year
- USDCHF confined by 200 hour MA and floor support
- Unconfirmed report from think tank that says BOJ will ease in October.
- EURUSD chops around in NY trade
- USDCAD moves below 100 hour MA
- Fed’s Plosser says Fed moves undermine credibility
- US Jobless Claims Drop Under 400K to 391K
- The US jobess claims are the surprise but seasonals influence
- Canada IPPI Improves & Raw Materials Fall
- The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 29th is available for viewing
- US GDP, Personal Consumption, Jobless Claims All to be Released at 8:30AM
| USDSGD tests intraday resistance at 1.2929 area Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:54 AM PDT
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| Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:53 AM PDT
Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This webinar featured the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/151835441 . |
| EURUSD back testing NY days highs at 1.3650 Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:15 AM PDT The EURUSD is back up testing (and now moving through) the NY high for the day at the 1.3650. The high for the trading day is at the 1.36777 lvel and this is the next target for the pair. Traders willl like to see the momentum continue higher for the pair but expect profit taking against the 1.3677 at least on the first test. This level corresponds with the underside of the trendline up from the lows this week. Earlier today the price failed on a break above that broken trendline (see chart below). I would look for sellers against it should the price test it again with stops on a break.
The market remains choppy in the pair. |
| Pending Home sales better than expected but down -1.2% MoM Posted: 29 Sep 2011 07:02 AM PDT The YoY has risen by 13.1%. This was also better than expected (+6.4% expected). The Northeast fell -1.2% All changes are seasonally adjusted. The estimate is that 80% of the pending home sales will become existing home sales in 2 months time. Although the Pending Home sales are up 13.1%, the indexed value is at 88.6 (100 = 2001 base), the high indexed value was 127.0 in April of 2005. The low was 75.9 in June of 2009. So from the high, the Pending home sales are down 30.23%. |
| SNB official says will increase shift toward GBP over the coming year Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved sharply higher in reaction as has the GBPCHF. The GBPCHF has been using the 200 day MA as a key resistance level above. The level currently comes in at the 1.4179 level. The high reached 1.4127 level last week. This would be an upside target for the pair. A break above should lead to further upside momentum.
On the hourly chart below the price has been consolidating and remains in a range for the pair. However, the price did bounce off the 200 hour MA (green line) earlier today, and is now above the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.4023). This will be support for traders today. The 1.4078 level is the topside trendline resistance. A move above this level should lead to further upside momentum in the pair with the high for the week (2in chart) at 1.4122 the next target followed by the high from last week at the 1.4145 level (1 in chart).
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| USDCHF confined by 200 hour MA and floor support Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:34 AM PDT
The USDCHF has been between support and resistance over the last 10 hours. |
| Unconfirmed report from think tank that says BOJ will ease in October. Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:20 AM PDT
The USDJPY had been moving higher today and the price has just moved above the resistance at the 76.77 level (38.2% retracement). The next resistance comes at the 76.98. Each time the price has moved to the high end of the range this month, the price action has failed and the fall has been quick. Traders simply do not have the conviction to hold on when the price action stalls.
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| EURUSD chops around in NY trade Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:13 AM PDT
The 1.3630 level is the 100 bar MA on the 45 minute chart (see chart above) and the market has been chopping around the levels since the release of the 8:30 US economic numbers. The latest move has been back below the level. The last move higher took the price above the NY high, but that failed (at 1.3650). The NY low is 1.3604 so far. The 38.2% of the days range is at 1.3617. The market bounced off this level, post the economic releases. From a technical perspective short will need to see an effort to get below this level to encourage further selling. On the hourly chart the 1.3600 is the support from the broken trendline. Being above it and the 100 and 200 hour MA keep the corrective trend in tact for the pair.
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| USDCAD moves below 100 hour MA Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:58 AM PDT
The USDCAD has moved back to and below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0272 level. The Industrial Product prices rose by more than expected today coming in at +0.5% vs -0.5% expected. This may be influencing sentiment. The 1.0203 level is the next close target to give bears confidence to the downside. Yesterday there were 3 lows at the level. Below that, the 1.0156 level is where the 38.2% and the 200 hour MA are found. The USDCAD has been in a non trending environment this week. The high was reached on Monday. The low on Tuesday. Today, the price extended toward the high but that was rejected. The 100 hour MA is going sideways indicative of the non-trend week. Markets seem to be trying to get their feet under them this morning. |
| Fed’s Plosser says Fed moves undermine credibility Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:48 AM PDT
Plosser is known to be a hawk. His comments are at odds with Bernanke. |
| US Jobless Claims Drop Under 400K to 391K Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:33 AM PDT Jobless Claims: Survey: 420K Actual: 391K Prior: 423K Revised: 428K Continuing Claims: Survey: 3730K Actual: 3729K Prior: 3727K Revisad: 3749K (Annualized): Survey: 1.2% Actual: 1.3% Prior: 1.0% Personal Consumption: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 0.4% GDP Price Index: Survey: 2.4% Actual: 2.5% Prior: 2.4% Core PCE QoQ: Survey: 2.2% Actual: 2.3% Prior: 2.2% |
| The US jobess claims are the surprise but seasonals influence Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:33 AM PDT Falling to 391k with expectations of 420K. This was the lowest since April 1st 2011. The USD GDP comes in at 1.3% annualized. Consumption was revised to plus 0.7%. Remember this is old news. |
| Canada IPPI Improves & Raw Materials Fall Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:32 AM PDT Industrial Production Price Index MoM: Survey: -0.5% Actual: 0.5% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -0.4% Raw Materials Price Index: Survey: -2.5% Actual: -3.2% Prior: -1.2% Revised: -1.1% |
| The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 29th is available for viewing Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:17 AM PDT |
| US GDP, Personal Consumption, Jobless Claims All to be Released at 8:30AM Posted: 29 Sep 2011 04:38 AM PDT
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