Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

ECB’s Zoellick on the Wires

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:29 AM PDT

Says:

  • Some countries may not return to competitiveness
  • Doesn’t think China will bail out Europe
  • ‘Ripple effects’ from Europe to other countries
  • Ripple effects affecting developing world, started in August
  • You have to watch out for all types of protectionism

 

S& P says Italy can not solve debt problems by privatization

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:10 AM PDT

  • They expect Italy debt costs to rise but it will not shut them out of the debt market
  • Single A rating is still strong

USD/CHF Turns Back Up to Target New Highs

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:09 AM PDT

 USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Tuesday (9/20/2011) has once again risen to re-test key resistance around the 0.8900 price region, a level that was just tested and essentially respected early last week. After last week’s resistance test, price pulled back slightly in its trend-breaking bullishness, to the 0.8645 price region, before turning back up. Now that price has re-tested key resistance, a strong break to the upside, which would continue the bullish breakout momentum and add further confirmation to an overall change in trend for the pair, could go on to target further upside around the 0.9300 resistance region. A turn back to the downside from resistance, which would further strengthen this resistance region, could target strong downside support once again around the 0.8550 price region.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

Now SNB spokesperson says they plan no press conference…

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:03 AM PDT

SNB has no comment on peg rumor but will hold press conference/meeting at 11 AM ET

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:55 AM PDT

EURCHF shifts back to the upside.

USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:55 AM PDT

The USDJPY has tested the 76.70 level (100 hour MA – blue line)  twice today and each time the price was turned away. The levels importance is increasing and the Bank of Japan would like the currency to weaken (higher USDJPY).

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:17 AM PDT

Talking Technicals with James Chen

Please join us today (Tuesday, Sept 20) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/611865313 .

EURUSD holds above broken trendline at 1.3676 area

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:13 AM PDT

The EURUSD is finding support against the underside of the broken trendline at the 1.3676 currently. On the topside the 100 and 200 hour MA found sellers.  Traders playing the ranges in the uncertain environment.  US weak. EU weak.

IMF headlines out.

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:04 AM PDT

  • EU growth to 1.6 from 2% in 2011.
  • 2012 growth cut to 1.1 from 1.7%
  • EU must recapitalize banks.
  • ECB should cut interest rates if debt tensions persist
  • Cut most EU growth forecasts on EURO contagion
  • EU should continue to intervene strongly in debt markets
  • They also cut US 2011 growth to 1.5% from 2.5%
  • Cuts US 2012 to 1.8 from 2.7% prior
  • Global economy has entered “dangerous new phase”

SRB has issued the first ever warning (European Systemic Risk Board). These comments are apparently old but 1st public release

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:59 AM PDT

Not sure how to interpret since it apparently is not new.

SNB “declined to comment” on rumor of new peg for EURCHF

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:51 AM PDT

USDCHF/EURCHF moves sharply higher. Rumor of a new target for EURCHF

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:40 AM PDT

Market talk that the SNB is to move target 1.2500 tomorrow. This is unconfirmed but is what is being talked about in the market. The EURCHF has moved sharply higher to the 1.2139 level.  This is considerably less than the proposed target of 1.2500. This is indicative of the rumor nature of the news. Nevertheless the pair is sharply higher.  I will be watching the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for clues.  If the market players are on board, these levels should be supported on dips. If the market is skeptical, the price will move below.

Housing Starts weaker. Building Permits stronger

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:30 AM PDT

Housing Starts came in at the 571K vs 590K. Permits rose to 620K vs 590K.  Give or take in this housing data is not really relevant. The numbers are still weak.  The numbers prior to 2008 were as high as 2273K.  So a number at 600 K is at least half of what it should be. 

In Canada Leading Indicators came in flat vs 0.2% estimate
Wholesale Sales rose 0.8% which was as expected.

EURUSD pushes through 38.2% retracement

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:14 AM PDT

The EURUSD has pushed to new highs and in the process moved above the 38.% of the move down from the September 15th high to low on September 19th. That level comes in at the 1.37195. The next target above is the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.3334/13340 area.

US Housing Starts and Building Permits Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 20 Sep 2011 04:23 AM PDT

 

 
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