Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Italy official clarifies China talks

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 07:40 AM PDT

The talks centered not on bond purchases but on China investment in Industrial assets. This sent the EURUSD down to suppor against the 1.3668 level. The 1.3668 level is the trendline on the daily chart.

Today Italy auctioned off 5 year bonds with yields considerable higher than the last auction in July 95.6% vs 4.93).  The demand was also much less with a bid to cover ratio of 1.28 vs 1.93 at the last auction.

Boehner comments and political fighting  in the US, countered with the EU/Italy issues

EURUSD finds resistance at the 1.3721 area

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 07:17 AM PDT

The EURUSD extended to the upside and worked its way to the 1.3721 target area. This is the 38.2% of the last leg to the upside (see PRIOR POST).  The high came in at the 1.3725 level and has reverxed back lower. The price is back testing the 1.3700 level.

The successful test of the 38.2% raises eyebrows for the bears. However, the 100 hour MA is still a good distance away.  So look for dips toward 1.3668 area to find buyers (with tight stops below the level).

Economic Optimism Shows Slight Rise to 39.9 vs Survey of 38.0 and Prior of 35.8

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 07:13 AM PDT

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT

Talking Technicals Webinar with James Chen

Please join us today (Tuesday, Sept 13) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/978696225 .

GBPUSD in the top half the days range

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 06:47 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has been moving higher and lower in the NY session around the midpoint of the days range at the 1.5814 level (see chart below). The hourly chart above shows resistance againt the 1.5858 level  on the sideways to down channel. The downside support off the same chart comes in at the 1.5749 level. That line was tested on 3 separate occasions and each time the market price bounced.

Traders looking for the range trading to continue should use the extremes for the day as levels sell or buy.  Shorts from above, should eye the days midpoint a tthe 1.5814 to confirm a move toward the lows.  Other downside support at the 1.5789 level.

Earlier today, BOE Posen was on the wires with dovish comments saying that the BOE should increase QE by 50 billion pounds and that other central banks should look to stimulate as well. He also said that he expects inflation to come down rapidly.

BOE Posen expects inflation to go down rapidly in the in the UK

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 06:17 AM PDT

He also said that failure to increase QE would lead to rising unemployment.

There is a risk that the BOE should not make the mistake of waiting too long.

Today CPI data showed that YoY inflation rose to 4.6% from 4.5%. The MoM rose by 0.6%

IMF says Portugal shows good progress

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 06:13 AM PDT

They add that they are addressing slippage to hit 2011 targets.

EURUSD testing trendline resistance at 1.3668 area

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 05:55 AM PDT

On the daily chart in the EURUSD, the 1.3668 level represents the underside of the trendline extending from the lows in May and July. THe level comes in at the 1.3668 level and the price today has extended above the level on two separate occasions today. The price is now back below the level, but the market action remains choppy. Keep an eye on this level for clues as to direction. If the price is not able to move back above, the downside is favored. A move back above and the price could scoot higher.

The 1.3721 level is the next upside target. This level is the 38.2% of the last move down for the pair.

ON the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3643 seems to attract interest by intraday traders.

US Economic Optimism Forecasted Higher

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 05:43 AM PDT

US Import Price Index Comes Out Better Than Expectations

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 05:31 AM PDT

(MoM):  Survey: -0.8%    Actual: -0.4%   Prior:  0.3%  

Import Price Index(YoY):  Survey: 12.5%    Actual:  13.0%    Prior:  14.0%  Revised:  14.0%

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 13th 2011

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 05:21 AM PDT

Sarkozy spokesperson says no Franco/German initiative statemement today

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 04:48 AM PDT

Sends the EURUSD back to the downside as the market is disappointed that there is not a more united front on Greece from the EU super powers.

Market moves suggest the market is jittery.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index comes in at 88.1

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 04:30 AM PDT

The expectations was 88.0.

The expectations of business conditions were the major drivers of the decline.  Inflation pressure is less.

Plan to Hire:  5% vs 2% last month
Higher selling prices:  1% vs 7% last month
Increased capital spending:  21% vs 20% last month
Plan to increase inventory:  -5% vs  -3% last month
Expect better economy: -26% vs -15% last month
Expect higher sales:  -12% vs -2% last month
Inventory satisfaction:  1% vs 0% last month
Positions not able to fill:  15% vs 12% last month
Easing of credit conditions:   -13% vs -11% last mont
Good time to expand:  5% vs 6% last month
Positive earnings trends: -26% vs -24% last month

US Import Price Index Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 04:26 AM PDT

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index due at 7:30 AM

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 04:24 AM PDT

The expectations is for 88.0 vs 89.9. A reading of 88 would be the lowest reading since February of 2010. The low watermark for the index was reached in March of 2009 at 81.0.  The high for the index has been 107.7 reached in November of 2004.
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