Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Protected: Forex Fast Track Live Trading Workshop- Phoenix/Scottsdale AZ October 1 2011
The GBPUSD moves back lower as equities open and move lower
USDCHF squeezes above 38.2% of the days range
No “Labor Day” sends the USDCHF lower. Rebounds from the low
EURUSD stays in the range.
NFP Zero jobs add. Revisions down. Unemployment rate 9.1% unchanged
Finnish finance minister reiterates demand for collateral for Greek bailout
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.2.2011
Japanese Finance Minister weighs in before NFP
NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 2 2011
IFO’s Sinn says Eurobonds would be disastrous, would reduce pressure from markets.
Comments from Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos
ECB’s Honohan
Eurozone PPI Stays According to Forecast at 6.1% vs a Prior Number of 5.9%
Eurozone PPI Data Expected at 5AM

Protected: Forex Fast Track Live Trading Workshop- Phoenix/Scottsdale AZ October 1 2011

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:42 AM PDT

The GBPUSD moves back lower as equities open and move lower

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:38 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has moved back lower as the stock market opens and moves sharply lower. The DJ is down 236 points. The S&P is down 26. Gold is up $48.

The pair tested the 38.2% of the recent move down after the number this morning and found sellers. The price is now in the channel that was broken in the London session. That level comes in at the 1.6190 level currently (see chart above). ON the hourly chart below the 1.6197 level is the midpoint of the move up from the July low to the August high. Intraday traders, looking for the trend to continue would love to see the price remain below these levels (1.6191 to 1.6197)

On the downside the next target is the 1.6168 area which was lows from yesterday. The low from earlier today came in at the 1.6171. Markets remain volatile with the stock and commodity moves. Be patient.

USDCHF squeezes above 38.2% of the days range

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:15 AM PDT

The USDCHF has squeezed sharply higher and the price has moved to and above the 38.2% of the days range at he 0.7803 level (see chart below) . This move has gotten the markets attention as the expectation would be weak is good for the CHF and bad for the USDCHF.

The price move higher has moved to the underside of the channel trendline on the hourly chart at the 0.7822 area (see channel in the chart above). A move back above this level should lead to further stops as the market shorts seem to be offside at the moment.

No “Labor Day” sends the USDCHF lower. Rebounds from the low

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:07 AM PDT

The “No Labor Day” is an ironic prelude to the Labor Day holiday on Monday. The USDCHF has moved lower as flight to quality bids in the CHF was the intial reaction. The price has since rebounded back to the upside,w ith resistance at the topside resistance at the 0.7792 area. THe 38.2% of the days range comes in at the 0.7803 level.

On the downside, the low came in at the 0.77078 level. That would be a target. Below that watch the 0.7680 area. This was where highs and lows came in on August 11th and 12th.

Of course the CHF may be open for intervention or verbal intervention so follow the technical levels closely.

EURUSD stays in the range.

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:43 AM PDT

The tepid NFP report (zero jobs), has the EURUSD confused as to directional bias. The weaker number sent the pair lower initially on the weak is bad for everyone and especially EURO, but are now seeing a move back to the the highs on lower dollar across the board thought. The price has moved to the high for the day at the 1.4287 level and backed off. On the downside, the initial fall fell to the underside of the channel trendline at the 1.4234 level (low reached 1.4328) and rebounded. These are the extremes to eye now. The midpoint of the low to high range post the report comes in at 1.4256. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4247. This is support now.

NFP Zero jobs add. Revisions down. Unemployment rate 9.1% unchanged

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:30 AM PDT

Private sector jobs add 17K vs 95K
Revisions NFP 85K vs 117K
Private Payroll 156K vs 154K (unchanged).
Underemployment Rate 16.2%

The report is weak.

Finnish finance minister reiterates demand for collateral for Greek bailout

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT

They also reiterate the opposition to Eurozone bonds.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.2.2011

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Investors and traders worldwide will be awaiting this morning’s release of US employment data at 8:30 AM EST.

The US has a national holiday on Monday-Labor Day. Most US markets will be closed-but the FX market will be up and running.

Payrolls are expected to increase by approximately 70K-far less than the 117K increase in July. The US rating downgrade by S&P, along with fears of default in Europe, and fighting between US lawmakers on the debt reduction program all led to the reduction in hiring.
These factors caused the markets to be nervous, and uncertain-which is a key component when companies cut back.
The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 9.1%. This will make the last 26 out of 28 months with an unemployment rate over 9%.
Investors will look to see how many jobs the private sector added-as this sector is the strongest part on new job growth.

Equity markets are lower worldwide-and US Futures are lower at this time as concerns that the employment report will show signs of a continuing slow economy.

Gold is high again today-and Oil is slightly lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY- WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Japanese Finance Minister weighs in before NFP

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:17 AM PDT

Says Japanese industry will suffer if we don’t take measures against the strong yen.

It is curious the comments come right before the NFP report.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 2 2011

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 04:49 AM PDT

IFO’s Sinn says Eurobonds would be disastrous, would reduce pressure from markets.

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 03:18 AM PDT

Comments from Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:31 AM PDT

2012 draft budget will be presented on Oct. 3rd.
Denied that EU/IMF talks are suspended.
banks must ramp up their efforts to meet the problems of mortgage problems.
Sees recession in Greece this year around 5%.
Greece is behind on closing the competitive gap.
Risky to keep target for positive growth rate in 2012.

ECB’s Honohan

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:24 AM PDT

Nature of recovery in Ireland will be moderate, growth will not be very labor intensive.
Domestic demand is still affected by past imbalances, external side performing well.
Entirely possible that banks will have to take some losses on mortgage loans.
All structural benchmarks in banking reform have been met, some ahead of schedule.
Would be beneficial if government announced medium term spending and tax plans in as much detail as possible.
Developments in financial markets show recognition Ireland is taking correct steps.
Have have sufficient financial strength to absorb losses for mortgages in serious difficulty.
There has been an exceptional rise in households who have missed payments on mortgages.