Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Chicago PMI comes in at 56.1 for the month of November.
• November 30th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
• GBPUSD feels more pressure today, but still unchanged on the day. 1.6414 is the 100 day moving average. Key support.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.30.2009
• Canada GDP MoM come in as expected. YoY lower on prior quarter revision higher
• Canada GDP due out at 8:30 AM
• Chicago PMI Index to be released at 9:45 AM. Milwaukee PMI at 10AM
• $EURUSD falls below 200 bar MA support, but has support at 1.5008
• UK Net Lending, Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals
• Eur/Gbp approaching Friday’s high
• BOE may be too optimistic on recovery says BDO
• 11-30 Economic Calendar
• BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
• Risk Pairs Gain a Bid
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence

Chicago PMI comes in at 56.1 for the month of November. Posted: 30 Nov 2009 06:47 AM PST Chicago PMI came in better than expected at  56.1 for the month of November.  This was the highest reading since August 2008.  New Orders rose to 62.8 spurred on by better foreign sales .  Order backlog also increased. The Inventories remains low which is good for future production. Prices paid          52.6  vs 48.6 Production           57.6  vs 63.9 New orders           62.8  vs 61.4 Order backlogs       46.5  vs 41.9 Inventories          34.9  vs 32.2 Employment           41.9 vs  38.3 Supplier deliveries  57.4 vs  50.7 The better than expected data will likely be supportive of stocks which in turn should benefit the EURUSD.  Watching the 1.5000 support level for the pair.

November 30th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 30 Nov 2009 06:45 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD feels more pressure today, but still unchanged on the day. 1.6414 is the 100 day moving average. Key support. Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:58 AM PST The GBPUSD moved higher intially overnight reaching a high price fo 1.6592 but the 1.6600 level was too hard a level to break through and the price started to give up the gains.  From a fundamental perspective, the thought is although Abu Dhabi is standing behind its banking system to absorb losses or runs on the banks, it is not directily bailing out the Dubai World conglomerate.  It is felt that the UK banks are most exposed to the over ambitious projects and therefore if there is a loser it would be the GBP.  The price nevertheless remains above the close from Friday at the 1.6471 level. The low today did extend tdown to the 1.6454 level but that move was quickly reversed.  The price is back below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute charts at the 1.6514 and 1.6526 levels and that gives a negative short term bias.  A move toward these moving average levels will likely attract sellers.  On the downside, watch the 1.6470 level and then a break of the low for the day to signal more pressure, with next target at 1.6433. A KEY level to watch is the 1.6414 level. This is the 100 day MA. On Friday, the price fell below this level and sold off hard toward the November low price of 1.6260 (low on Friday reached 1.6270). I would expect buyers against this level should the price be further pressured today.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.30.2009 Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:41 AM PST Good Morning: As some in the United States are awakening to a new week after a long Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the markets have had quite a roller coaster ride the past few days. The main concern stemmed from reports last week that state owned Dubai World may default on as much as $90 Billion.  This caused the USD to rally and world wide equity markets to fall, along with commodities.  Since the initial report, markets are trying to get a grasp on the depth of this potential default on a global scale.  The UAE (United Arab Emirates’) Central Bank  has stated that it “stands behind” Dubai’s local and foreign lenders.  I am not clear on exactly what this rhetoric is really about as Dubai’s Government has stated that it does not guarantee the debt of the state owned entity.  Dubai World is hoping that creditors will help in any restructuring process. Overnight the USD has weakened, Asian equities were higher, European stocks are lower, and US Futures are slightly ahead this morning. Oil: $76.18                                        Gold;$1172.60 Today’s data: CHI PMI:                 exp: 53.0              prior: 54.2 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada GDP MoM come in as expected. YoY lower on prior quarter revision higher Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:36 AM PST The MoM GDP rose by 0.4% for the month and the annualized rate for the 3Q rose by 0.4%.  The MoM gain was as expected.  The YoY number was lower than expectations at +0.4% versus +1.0%.  The prior quarter was revised to -3.1% from -3.4%.  Meanwhile, also out of Canada the Industrial Product Price index fell by -0.3% versus expectations of +0.3%, and the Raw Material Price index rose by 2.5% for the month versus expectations of +3.3%. The prices were lower on the back of lower import prices because of the stronger Canadian dollar. The USDCAD has rallied off the data and moved back toward the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The 100 hour moving average comes in at the 1.0570 level.  The 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.0585 level.  If the price moves above the 100 hour MA, the bias is positive.  Look for a move above the 200 hour MA to confirm the bias.   A move below gives a negative bias.

Canada GDP due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:24 AM PST The September and 3Q GDP figures will be released in Canada today. The expectation is for a gain of 0.4% vs a -0.1% decline in August.  The 3Q is expected to show a gain of 1.0% which is up from the -3.4% decline in the 2Q.  This is an annualized figure, similar to the USA.

Chicago PMI Index to be released at 9:45 AM. Milwaukee PMI at 10AM Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:06 AM PST The Chicago PMI index, the 4th in a series of regional indices, will be released at 9:45 AM NYT.  The expectation is for a decline to 53.3 versus 54.2 last month.  The reading over the 50 level will be the 3rd time in the last 4 months that the index has been above the 50 level.  Below are October component pieces.  Production and New orders soared from the prior month (47.2 and 46.3 respectively).  Prices paid             48.6 Production              63.9 New orders              61.4 Order backlogs     41.9 Inventories             32.2 Employment          38.3 Supplier deliveries  50.7   At 10.00 AM the Milwaukee regional manufacturing index will be released. There is no estimate for this index. Last month the index came in at 50.0.  This was down sharply from the prior month when the index reached a 19 month high of 58.

$EURUSD falls below 200 bar MA support, but has support at 1.5008 Posted: 30 Nov 2009 04:47 AM PST NY has entered the fray and has pushed the EURUSD back down below the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (green line).  The price has been consolidating after the higher opening and move higher post the Abu Dhabi rescue of Dubai over the weekend.  Although comforting to debt holders, the fundamental viability of the over ambitious projects remains in question.  Nevertheless, the save has been made.  The pair moved to a high of 1.5083 but backed off.  Last Wednesday and Thursday, there were high price ceilings at the 1.5095 area. This area seemed to attract profit taking sellers this morning.  The move back down has support at the 100 hour MA which comes in at the  1.5007 level currently.  This level should bring back some buyers.  A break below will look to target 1.4986 and then the 200 hour MA at the 14964 level. On the topside, watch 1.5048 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  It seems we are in a point of transition now as the NY market decides the course and perhaps the market awaits the stock market opening.  The Dow futures are showing a small 14 point decline. The S & P index is down 1.50 points.   Oil is pretty much unchanged.

UK Net Lending, Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals Posted: 30 Nov 2009 01:37 AM PST UK Mortgage Approvals came in at 57,000, less than the 59,000 estimate, but greatwer than the prior reading of 56,00. Net Consumer Credit came in at -0.6B, weaker than the -0.2B expected and prior reading of -0.3B. Net Lending to Individuals came in at 0.3B, weaker than the 0.8B expected and 0.6B prior reading. Overall not strong numbers for cable as Gbp/Usd back about 15 points, currently trading at 1.6510.

Eur/Gbp approaching Friday’s high Posted: 30 Nov 2009 12:43 AM PST Eur/Gbp has been on a steady incline and is approaching Friday’s high of .9132. From an hourly perspective the 38.2% Fibo (.9072) should be a level of support if the pair pulls back at all. A break above could see Eur/Gbp ascend to the .9155-60 area. From a daily point of view, if the pair can break and hold above .9122, which is the 50% Fibo of move down from early October high of .9410, .9190 would be next target on upside. A failed break should bring the pair back down to the .9055-60 level. Keep in mind that you’ve got the usual Bundesbank month end purchase of eur/Gbp also in play which may keep the pair elevated.

BOE may be too optimistic on recovery says BDO Posted: 29 Nov 2009 11:01 PM PST According to a survey of businesses by BDO Stoy Hayward, the Bank of England's predictions of a U.K. economic recovery next year are "too optimistic." This month's business trends report suggests quarterly economic growth over the next six months of less than 0.5 percent which is far short of a  strong return to growth, according to the accounting firm. Forecasting by the central bank's MPC  is based on an out of date forecast from April, BDO Partner Peter Hemington said in a statement. "The Bank of England expects growth to surpass 2.5 percent towards the end of 2010, but its inflation report has not fully taken into account the extent of next year's fiscal tightening." Business confidence is still "fragile" and companies don't predict a return to strong growth in the short term, Hemington said.  The Bank of England has to be aware of the weakness in growth when considering tightening its policies on quantitative easing and interest rates, the BDO said. The organization also called on Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to use his Dec. 9 pre-budget report to focus on cutting public spending rather than imposing a heavier tax burden on business to reduce Britain's budget deficit. As we approach the European open it will be intersting to see if this opinion gains any traction in early trading.

11-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Nov 2009 09:01 PM PST

BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks Posted: 29 Nov 2009 05:45 PM PST Speaking at a meeting with business executives in Nagoya, BOJ governor Shirakawa made the following statements: BOJ is to keep extremely accommodative environment. Growth may slow in the Spring as stimulus wanes. The recovery at home and abroad won’t be terminated. Economic outlook is uncertain. The JOB is ready to take bold and swift action.

Risk Pairs Gain a Bid Posted: 29 Nov 2009 05:42 PM PST Risk and commodity pairs have caught a bid to start the trading week as oil and equities are all trading up regardless of the negative data received earlier in the session (lower JPY industrial production & UK consumer confidence.) For the AUD/USD we see the pair approaching the 100 hr moving average and the 61.8% retracement of last weeks move, we will watch and see if the pair runs into any resistance at this level.

UK GfK Consumer Confidence Posted: 29 Nov 2009 04:06 PM PST The GfK Confidence number for November was allegedly leaked 40 minutes before its scheduled release which came in at -17; worse than its forecast of -11 and prior reading of -13. The GBP/USD went offered over the last 5 minutes falling from just above the 1.65 handle to its current bid price of 1.6475.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

Dubai World and the world Posted: 28 Nov 2009 09:47 AM PST The Dubai debt crisis is once again a reminder of fragility of the global credit market and also how what may seem like an isolated problem can have far reaching tenticles.  Dubai is part of the United Arab Emerate. The capital is Abu Dhabi. Although one would think it would garner its wealth from oil, its economy is driven by tourism, real estate and financial services.   According to Wikipedia the economies wealth from oil is only about 6%. Real Estate and construction contributed 22.6%. Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE does have large oil revenues however and it is them who Dubai is looking for for help. Dubai World has been the center of the investment focus largely catering to the rich of the world.  The state owned entity has been responsible for the creation of the Burj al Arab hotel which is the sail shaped ediface that charges a cool $1,000 a night, an indoor ski resort, the tallest building in the world,  the world largest shopping mall and the man made palm shaped islands of largely private residences.  All of which have been created with excess in mind and the hopes of attracting tourists and the world’s elites to its adult Disney World.  The building boom led to prices rising sharply with inflation running well above 10% through the 2000s, and with it the price of real estate soared with the frenzy atmosphere of “nothing can go wrong here” emerged.  OF course there is no such thing as a sure thing with no “excepts”…. The “except” was a global meltdown that reversed the whole up, up and away juggernaut. The problem with real estate of such grand porportion is how do you stop a 160 story building construction before conclusion, or the creation of man made cities in the form of palm trees.  The answer is you can’t.   So who pays?  Of course, some might think that with the oil wealth in the region the bank account of the Emirates would be the funder of such projects but we live in a capitalistic global economy where even the most wealthy of nations use the global capital markets to finance projects.  Dubai World was the borrower. Global banks were the lenders.  This week the delay of a debt payment of 59 billion US rocked the financial markets and raised the prospects that other emerging nations would likewise suffer. Credit default insurance rose dramatically for countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, Brazil and Russia.  The Credit Default Swap market which some feel forced the likes of Lehman to go under and Merrill to merge with Bank of America could pressure other riskier debt entities.  All of which makes banks less willing to lend and with less lending, cash continues to be king. Debtors? Well they suffer and suffer and suffer. What about China and the US?  In China, ambitious expansion plans are fine and well but they must be done prudently. They also need funding and that funding has to be supported by economic growth, tax revenues, some sort of income stream that offsets the cost.  In the US, a blank check only works to some extent.  Printing money has its limits. It has to paid back some way and I am not sure that lessen is being heard.  Debt upon debt is not the answer to all things whether they be economic infrastructure expansion or the likes of the debt expansion that is going on in the USA. Abu Dhabi can come in and write a check that would satisfy the problem of its emirate member, but is it the answer to the problem?  Does the prospects of a 160 story building yet to be completed or countless other commercial and housing real estate developments make sense for the region in a world which is losing wealth, losing its Richie Rich swagger.   Is there any upside or is it a write off?    That is the answer the world will be looking to hear.  I am not sure it will be a simple sweep it under the rug or ignore the pink elephant in the room issue.  As a result we could/should see some additional dollar buying as that seems to be the thing that gets done when things go bad.   For those who follow my analysis, you of course know by now that the technicals will tell the market sentiment and paint the fundamental story line.  So continue to follow your technical chart levels and make sure the bias from the clues the prices tell us, dictate your trading positions. The global economic story continues with a new chapter being written all the time.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• November 27th 2009 Weekend Forex Report is available for viewing
• FXDD Review of today and Preview for next weeks key economic releases and events
• Dow closes the week down 154 points
• November 27th 2009 Midday Forex Report from FXDD is available for viewing
• Midpoint of weeks high low ranges tested in $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDJPY and $USDCHF
• $EURUSD testing key 200 hour MA and Fibonacci retracement at 1.4949 level.
• Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training Register Here

November 27th 2009 Weekend Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 27 Nov 2009 02:16 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

FXDD Review of today and Preview for next weeks key economic releases and events Posted: 27 Nov 2009 01:06 PM PST Click on the link below to access the FXDD Weekend Report Note: There is a file embedded within this post, please visit this post to download the file.

Dow closes the week down 154 points Posted: 27 Nov 2009 10:04 AM PST The Dow closes early today as the traders start an early weekend with their families. The Dow closed down 154 points.  This sent the dollar a bit higher but activity has died down quite a bit.  The S & P is down 19 points today.  The Nasdaq is down 37.6 points. Oil is down $2.20.

November 27th 2009 Midday Forex Report from FXDD is available for viewing Posted: 27 Nov 2009 09:28 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Midpoint of weeks high low ranges tested in $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDJPY and $USDCHF Posted: 27 Nov 2009 08:25 AM PST The dollars moves in NY on the back of the stock markets rally from lows on the opening brought the major currency pairs back to the midpoint of the weeks trades.  The levels seems to have slowed the momentum of the corrective moves this morning and may have set tops/bottoms in the respective pairs.  The EURUSD tested the 50% Retracement level at the 1.4986 level. Support comes in at hte 1.4949 level now where 200 hour MA (green line ) and 38.2% retracement is found.   The GBPUSD tested the 50% retracement level at the 1.6507 level.  Support comes in at 1.6451 now. The USDJPY tested the 50% retracement at the 86.98 level.  Support comes in at 86.47 now for the pair. The USDCHF tested the 50% retracement at the 1.0057 level. Resistance comes in at 1.0074/76 and 1.0090 now.

$EURUSD testing key 200 hour MA and Fibonacci retracement at 1.4949 level. Posted: 27 Nov 2009 07:25 AM PST The 200 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement level of the move down from the November 25th high comes in at the 1.4949 level.  Look for sellers against the level. A break would be encouraging however with the next target looking to 1.4986.  Support now comes in at the 1.4920 level where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.

Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training Register Here Posted: 27 Nov 2009 07:00 AM PST REGISTER for the FXDD Online training on Tuesday DEC 01 2009 Here

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• USDJPY retraces 50% of the weeks high to low range
• The market remains volatile as stocks rally from lows GBPUSD tests resistance
• $AUDUSD moves further away from the longer term trendline break
• $GBPUSD corrects higher. Slows at the 200 bar MA and the key 100 day MA at 1.6411.
• November 27th 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• EURUSD awaits NYs entrance near the short term resistance level
• Gbp/Usd tests 38.2% retracement and gives some back
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer
• Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
• Gold makes new low
• German Import Prices
• Nikkei closes down 296
• Eur/Usd approaching 200 hour M/A
• 11-27 Economic Calendar
• NZD Breaks November Lows

USDJPY retraces 50% of the weeks high to low range Posted: 27 Nov 2009 07:11 AM PST The USDJPY is testing the 50% retracement of the move down this week.  The Monday high was at 89.17.  The low reached 84.80.  The midpoint comes in at the 86.98 level.   Watch this level

The market remains volatile as stocks rally from lows GBPUSD tests resistance Posted: 27 Nov 2009 07:04 AM PST The forex market remains volatile as the stock market rebounds from the lows and is only down about 180 points.  The rebound (or lack of additional selling) has given the dollar bulls a reason to cover.  As a result, the GBPUSD has moved back above the 100 day MA at the 1.6411 level today.  The next target comes in at the 38.2% retracement at the 1.6450 level.  This level is being tested now.  Watch this level.  Volatility continues.  A break above targets the 1.6506 level.  On the downside support comes in at the 1.6411 level now at the 100 day MA. This level remains a key level for todays trade.

$AUDUSD moves further away from the longer term trendline break Posted: 27 Nov 2009 06:28 AM PST The AUDUSD closed below the long term trendline that has been holding up the market since March 2009 yesterday. The selloff continued today as the market wonders if ambitious building initiatives are over ambitious. This may bring into question the infrastructure changes in China and other developing nations of which Australia is a resource provider.  Admittedly, this is just guilt by association but the market is shaken.  Whether true or not from a fundamental perspective, the technical charts will tell the story. The breaking of the long term trendline is a negative development. Now what?  The 5 minute chart is likely to give some clues to the market.  The price has been tracking below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages since early yesterday. The market just had its most impressive correction which took the price up to test the 200 bar MA on that chart.  The price reached a high of 0.9045 above the 200 bar MA at 0.9038. However, there was no follow through and the price has fallen again. The 100 bar moving average on the same chart comes in at the 0.8997. This is a key supprot level that if broken should lead to lower levels. Watch these levels (in particular the action at the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart).  If the price stays below, there could be further corrective selling.   On the downside, the 89.04 is next key support which is the low close for November.  Should extensive selling materialize, the market could correct toward a longer term target of 0.8754. This is the 38.2% retracement of the last leg higher in the AUDUSD from the July low to the November high (see daily chart) . The 100 day MA comes in at the 0.8704 level currently which is also key support. It would not be unusual for this type of move, if the price can continue to remain below the key shorter term moving averages that drive the intraday trading market (and bias).  Watch the short term charts but be aware of longer term potential targets.

$GBPUSD corrects higher. Slows at the 200 bar MA and the key 100 day MA at 1.6411. Posted: 27 Nov 2009 05:47 AM PST The Dubai World debt issues have led to banking worries and this in turn has hurt the GBPUSD.  The price plunged down to a low of 1.6267 level but has rebounded to a high of 1.6440.  In early NY trade, Dow stock futures rebounded from -220 to down about -180.  The rebound led to the knee jerk move back higher in the currency pair.  The stock market reaction will be the big influence in today’s trading.  From a technical perspective, the market will be paying attention to the 100 day moving average today which comes in today at the 1.6411 level.  This level also corresponds roughly with the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which is currently at the 1.6408 level.  The support off the same chart comes in at the 1.6375 level where the 100 bar MA is found. A break below this level should intensify the selling interest.  Watch the 1.6411 level today. Below the level is bearish. Above the level is bullish.   It is THE key level as the week comes to a close.

November 27th 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 27 Nov 2009 05:41 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD awaits NYs entrance near the short term resistance level Posted: 27 Nov 2009 04:01 AM PST The EURUSD awaits the NY traders coming back from their Thanksgiving holiday with the price of the EURUSD just at the shorter term charts 100 bar moving average (blue line).   The level comes in at the  1.4904 level.  The price moved above and below  the MA line in the last few hours.  I would expect selling initially against stops above the level.  The US stock market action today will be of great interest to the market. Oil is down $3.73.  Dow Futures are down 220 points, and Gold is down $22 as the flight to quality following the Dubai debt issues continues. However reports from Black Friday sales will also be of interest as the Christmas holiday season sales start.  It should not be your normal day for sure. A break to the upside will look toward the green line in the chart above at the 1.4944 currently (and coming down).  The 38.2% retracement level is at the 1.4949 as well.  On the downside the 1.4888 level is the low from November 24th. This level has held over the last couple of hours of trading.  A break of this level is needed to push the market further down.   A level to keep in mind for the EURUSD is the trendline in the daily chart below which comes in at the 1.4810 level.  Mark this level down on your trading pad by your desk as a key support level. SHould it be broken the longer term trend higher weakens a bit more.

Gbp/Usd tests 38.2% retracement and gives some back Posted: 27 Nov 2009 02:48 AM PST Gbp/Usd just tested the 38.2% Fibo of move from 1.6745 down to 1.6267. The pair ran up to 1,6445 and has since given back 25 points. The pair will probably make another run up. It will be interesting to see if we can hold for a 2nd time. Otherwise a pullback to the 1.6385-90 level is likely.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer Posted: 27 Nov 2009 02:33 AM PST The KOF Economic Barometer is the combined reading of 12 economic indicators related to banking confidence, production, and housing.  For the month of November it came in at 1.62; slightly lower than its forecast of 1.78 and prior reading of 1.45. The CHF, as well as the rest of the market, showed little reaction to the release.

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Posted: 27 Nov 2009 02:05 AM PST Confidence in the Euro-Zone came is as expected for November.  The EUR, currently trading mid-range for session, had a limited reaction to the following data: Business Climate Indicator - Survey: -1.65  Actual: -1.56   Prior: -1.78 Consumer Confidence - Survey: -17   Actual: -17   Prior: -18 Economic Confidence - Survey: 88.0   Actual: 88.8   Prior: 86.2 Inductrial Confidence - Survey: -19   Actual: -19   Prior: -21 Services Confidence - Survey: -6   Actual: -4   Prior: -7

Gold makes new low Posted: 27 Nov 2009 12:11 AM PST Gold has made new lows down to 1138.10 a troy ounce from a high of 1191 earlier in the session. The move signifies a 4.3% decline. On the daily chart we may find some support at 1130 which is the 38.2% Fibo retracement of incredible move up over past month. From an hourly perspective we can see the magnitude of this move lower. Gold breaks through a number of support levels with ease all within the last 3 hours of trading. If Xau/Usd retraces at all look for 1156.35 to be a level of resistance. To the downside Nov. 20 low of 1132.55 is not far off.

German Import Prices Posted: 26 Nov 2009 11:05 PM PST On the release of worse than expected German Import Prices for October, the Euro came off 20 pips against the USD. The details of the realse are as follows: Import Price Index (MoM) - Survey: -7.9%   Actual: -8.1%   Prior: -0.9% Import Price Index (YoY) - Survey: -7.8%   Actual: -8.1%  Prior: -11.0%

Nikkei closes down 296 Posted: 26 Nov 2009 10:09 PM PST The Nikkei fell more than 3% to a four month low mianly on concerns over debt problems in Dubai. The 296 point drop brought the markt down to 9086.74. Eur/Usd tested session lows of 1.4901 at time of close and has rebounded 20 pips , trading at 1.4925. Usd/Jpy dipped below 86.00.

Eur/Usd approaching 200 hour M/A Posted: 26 Nov 2009 08:59 PM PST Eur/Usd is approaching its 200 hour M/A of 1.4954. If the pair can get above this level we may be in for a partial retracement of move down from 1.5142. The 38.2% Fibo lies at 1.5000 and 100 hour M/A at 1.5004 fro added resistance. This would be next level to upside. If it can’t break above a move back to lows of 1.4912 is likely.

11-27 Economic Calendar Posted: 26 Nov 2009 08:45 PM PST

NZD Breaks November Lows Posted: 26 Nov 2009 03:59 PM PST The NZD/USD pair broke through November lows and the 71 cent handle on weaker trade balance (-487M) and export figures (2.97B), coupled with declining stocks and risk aversion controlling a thin market right now.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• EURUSD flushes down further as the 1.5047 level gives ways
• November 26th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
• UKs Darling on newswires. $GBPUSD pauses after a sharp move lower overnight
• $USDJPY corrects toward our 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart
• $EURUSD corrects down as the London afternoon starts. 1.5047 support.
• UK CBI Realized Sales
• Buba President Weber on the wires…
• Euro-Zone Money Supply and Private Loans
• USD/JPY Hits 14 year Low
• EUR/USD Approaching Resistance?
• Japanese Finance Minister Fujii on the Wire
• Usd/Jpy finds support at 12-14 lows and 1-18 lows
• NBNZ Business Confidence
• BOJ Meeting Minutes for October 30th Meeting
• Nov 25 2009 Forex Evening Report

EURUSD flushes down further as the 1.5047 level gives ways Posted: 26 Nov 2009 07:10 AM PST The EURUSD moved through the 1.5047 level and tracked down the next support area at the 1.5020 level.  The low reached 1.5017 and has bounced.  The upside will now have the 1.5047 level as resistance. The 100 bar MA at the 1.5072 level and coming down is another upside resistance level.  On the downside, the 1.5020 area and 1.5000 level are the next targets. London goes home shortly, which may/should slow down activity (12 noon).  However we cannot discount some more fireworks from 11-12 NY time as positions are squared.

November 26th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 26 Nov 2009 07:06 AM PST Video Pending

UKs Darling on newswires. $GBPUSD pauses after a sharp move lower overnight Posted: 26 Nov 2009 05:49 AM PST Says withdrawing support now would be “utter madness”. The GBPUSD - which was not as strong as the the EURUSD yesterday-  was the currency pair which plunged the most today. The price yesterday reached a high of 1.6745 which was just above the old spike  highs from June 30th and September 11th.  That high, reached in the London morning session, was not taken out in the NY afternoon when the dollar took its nosedive..   The high was only able to get up to 1.6727 in yesterday’s afternoon trading.  The market consolidation led to the 100 and 200 bar MA converging on the 5 minute chart. A break and one final test, led to the march down. The price stalled at the key 1.6600 level where the 100 hour MA was also situated, but continued down to a nice round low of 1.6500 level which was  within 4 pips from Tuesday’s low and as good a level as any to find buyers. Now the price was upside resistance at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6575 level and further upside resistance at the 100 hour MA at the 1.6600 level.  On the downside, watch the 1.6529 level and then the 1.6496/1.6500 level.

$USDJPY corrects toward our 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart Posted: 26 Nov 2009 05:34 AM PST The USDJPY plunged below the 87.11 support line last night and raced to a new low at the 86.29 level. The price got within shouting distance of the bottom trendline from the channel we have been eyeing for some time now.  That trendline comes in around the 86.00 area.  I would expect support buyers, against stops below this level should the price continue to be pressured going forward.    Looking at the shorter term chart today, the price has been has been bumping against and testing the waters above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart for the last 5-6 hours.  In fact the moving average line has nosed to the upside despite the price being below.  A move above this moving average line (blue line in the chart below) should be a positive sign for the pair with the next upside target being the green line or 200 bar MA at the 86.97 level.   Above that the old low at the 87.11 level should loom large.

$EURUSD corrects down as the London afternoon starts. 1.5047 support. Posted: 26 Nov 2009 04:53 AM PST With NY on Thanksgiving Day holiday, London banks will continue to be predominantly in charge for the trading activity for the next 5 or so hours.  The EURUSD corrected overnight after reaching our target at 1.5145 (1.5144 high) we spoke of 24 hours ago (CLICK HERE).  The price has used the 100 bar MA as its guide to the downside with a few blips above for the most part (blue line in the chart above).  The price just tested the 1.5047 level which was the November 11th high and bounced from there back higher.  The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the low on November 20th comes in at the 1.5042 level.  The low just reached is a nice level to stop and pause. Look for profit takers against these levels on dips.  Other support levels come in at 1.5020 and 1.5000  the same levels that helped propel the upside yesterday. On the topside, there should be resistance on moves up toward the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which is currently up at the 1.5086 level (and moving down). The 1.5095-1.5100 level is also a congestion area today (see 5 minute chart above).  Another level of interest is the 1.5062. This was the old high for 2009 before the move up yesterday.  This level may prove to be the level the market trades around today, should the price action settle down.

UK CBI Realized Sales Posted: 26 Nov 2009 03:01 AM PST CBI Realized Sales in the UK for the third quarter came in at 13; better than its forecast of 12 and prior reading of 8. Despite beating expectations, the GBP had a limited reaction to the release.

Buba President Weber on the wires… Posted: 26 Nov 2009 02:21 AM PST In a speech given in Leipzig, Germany Bundesbank President (and ECB Governing Council member) Weber made the following statements: It’s time to think about forming exit strategies. Fiscal and monetary stimulus must not be increased. He will not talk about ECB policy. We should not be too optimisitic about outlook.

Euro-Zone Money Supply and Private Loans Posted: 26 Nov 2009 01:12 AM PST Euro-Zone Money Supply and Private Loans for October came in worse than expected causing the EUR to sell of slightly. The details are as follows: Euro-Zone M3 (Oct) - Survey: 0.8%   Actual: 0.3$   Prior: 1.8% Private Loans (YoY) - Survey: -0.4%   Actual: -0.8%   Prior: -0.3%

USD/JPY Hits 14 year Low Posted: 25 Nov 2009 07:39 PM PST The USD/JPY pair continued lower during Asia, ignoring Fujii’s comments that the BOJ will watch currency action. The pair has rebounded slightly off the initial move, but the momentum for the pair is clearly negative.

EUR/USD Approaching Resistance? Posted: 25 Nov 2009 07:16 PM PST On the eve of a US holiday gold, oil and US equities rallied in what seemed like a low volume move and the USD sell off has led the EUR/USD pair through the 1.51 handle and to new 2009 highs. With these new levels we looked back to the rally into the summer of 2008 for technical resistance ahead. On the chart below we see a double bottom formed in May and June of ‘08 below the 1.53 handle and we will look for that level as the next resistance for the pair, if it continues to rally on this shortened holiday week.

Japanese Finance Minister Fujii on the Wire Posted: 25 Nov 2009 07:11 PM PST Japanese Finance Minister had the following comments to which the market had a muted reaction: Respects that US sees strong dollar in its interest. Need to take action on abnormal currency movements, watching currency movements for now. This is the second night in a row that the finance minister has commented on currencies. Yesterday stating that the appreciation of the Yen is due to the depreciation of the USD.

Usd/Jpy finds support at 12-14 lows and 1-18 lows Posted: 25 Nov 2009 07:10 PM PST Usd/Jpy finds support at end of last year’s and the beginning of the new year lows around 87.00-87.30 levels.

NBNZ Business Confidence Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:21 PM PST New Zealand Business Confidence weakened in November to 43.4 from to 48.2. The market had a limited reaction to this release as other factors are moving the market.

BOJ Meeting Minutes for October 30th Meeting Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:30 PM PST The BOJ meeting minutes moved the USD slightly higher against the Yen after being battered all day. The reaction was minimal and the highlights were as follows: Keep financial environment accommodative. Agreed to keep rates at the current level for some time. Agreed to resume collateralized lending if needed. Members said the economy is still on way to sustainable growth. Downside risk to the economy still exist. BOJ should be aware of deflation. BOJ and government share view on the economy.

Nov 25 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 25 Nov 2009 01:30 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610