Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCHF tests trendline resistance today. Lower PPI may solicit some deflationary chatter at some point.
- University of Michigan Confidence falls to 66.0 from 70.6
- ECBs Weber on the newswires
- GBPUSD moves through 100 hour MA and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. Intraday support at 1.6624
- Nov 13 2009 Forex Market Update
- EURUSD up on the day in a slow corrective move
- The US Trade Balance is worse than expectations. Should lower 3rd quarter GDP.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.13.2009
- US Trade Balance due at 8:30 AM
- Eurozone GDP
- GBP/USD trying to hold above 100 hour M/A
- German Preliminary GDP mostly inline with expectations
- 11-13 Economic Calendar
- EUR/USD Finds Some Technical Support
- New Zealand Finance Minster English
| Posted: 13 Nov 2009 07:14 AM PST
The USDCHF tested the trendline resistance at the 1.0195 level. A move above this level (well make it 1.0200) should lead to further gains in the pair. Overnight, the Swiss Producer Price Index came in at a lower than expecte d-0.4% for the month and -4.7% YoY. With a higher Swiss Franc it lowers the cost of imports for the country and may lead to chatter about deflation in the country. The SNB has already signalled a disdain for a higher CHF and with lower PPI inflation, perhaps there may be another reason to want a lower currency. Look for resistance to remains against the level. However, a break could lead to some additional upside moves for the pair. |
| University of Michigan Confidence falls to 66.0 from 70.6 Posted: 13 Nov 2009 06:55 AM PST
This is lower than expectations at 71.0. This has led to some pressure on the EURUSD and the GBPUSD as investors move out of the risky currencies and into the US dollar. This is the reaction that has been consistent in the currency markets despite the tendency to think weaker data is bad for the US dollar. |
| Posted: 13 Nov 2009 06:51 AM PST Says that the Euro banks have not seen all losses in the Bank Balance sheets. The remarks were made during a panel discussion in Berlin. |
| GBPUSD moves through 100 hour MA and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. Intraday support at 1.6624 Posted: 13 Nov 2009 06:45 AM PST
The GBPUSD moved up overnight on the back of increased optimism from merger news between British Airways and Iberia Air. This sent the GBPUSD up overnight and the price pushed through the 100 hour MA. However, the price has since moved back below the moving average in NY trade The MA come in at 1.6659. The level has additional significance as it also corresponds with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart below). We will watch this level as topside resistance for the day now.
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| Nov 13 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 13 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD’s next online training will take place on Tuesday, Nov 17th 2009 at 4pm |
| EURUSD up on the day in a slow corrective move Posted: 13 Nov 2009 05:53 AM PST
The EURUSD corrected higher today after the sharp move lower yesterday. The price used the 100 bar MA for most of the day until NY came in. The market has been choppy in the NY trade with the price moving below and below the short term MA. This is indicative of a neutral market - trying to find its way. The trade figures were more negative than expectations. This will have a negative effect on 3rd quarter GDP which may be a negative for stocks although the reaction is muted so far.
The 200 hour MA currently comes in at the 1.4889 level. We will watch that level in early trade. As long as the market can stay below that level, downward pressure should prevail. Watch the level. ON the downside, watch the close from yesterday at 1.4848. So far, there have been buyers against this level since moving above this level in the Far East session. A break below will likely lead to further pressure. |
| The US Trade Balance is worse than expectations. Should lower 3rd quarter GDP. Posted: 13 Nov 2009 05:34 AM PST The Trade Balance came in at -36.472B which was worse than expectations. The Exports rose by 2.9%. The Imports rose by 5.8%. The Real Trade Balance was also more negative than last month. This is the value that gets plugged into the GDP for the 3rd quarter and the higher value will have an effect of lowering the 3rd quarter GDP. The Real Trade Balance fell to -41.714B from -37.861 B. The initial reaction is a slightly lower dollar. The EURUSD has moved up to 1.4884 from 1.4875. USDJPY fell from 89.75 to 89.47. A lower dollar should lead to more exports and less imports. The problem is the US is reliant on imports from other countries (i.e. oil and other goods from China). As a result, the dollar moves may not necessarily have a huge effect on the margin. As a result, the effect may be shortlived this morning and focus may revert back toward the stock market opening shortly. Dow Futures are up 19 points. S & P are up 3 points |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.13.2009 Posted: 13 Nov 2009 05:14 AM PST
The USD fell overnight as investors seek higher yielding assets, as the global economic recovery takes root. World equity markets are mixed, and US Futures are slightly higher at this time. Oil:$76.81 Gold:$1106.40 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| US Trade Balance due at 8:30 AM Posted: 13 Nov 2009 05:03 AM PST
The US Trade Balance is expected to come in at -31.8B for the current month vs expectation of -30.7 B last month. The expectation is that imports and exports have both grown for the month. Auto and gas imports are expected to have increased as the cash for clunkers program pared inventories and higher oil prices likely caused an increase in imports. Exports are also thought to have increased. Last month exports grew by 0.2% while imports fell by 0.6%.
Of note for the report is the Real Trade Balance. This takes adjusts for the effects of price changes. Last month the Real Trade Balance came in at -37.696B. The Real Trade Balance is what flows through to GDP for the US. |
| Posted: 13 Nov 2009 02:03 AM PST Eurozone GDP q/q came in at 0.4%, slightly weaker than 0.5% expected. Eurozone GDP y/y came in at -4.1%, weaker than the -3.9% expected. No major market effect after release of figures as Eur/Usd continues to trade around 1.4880-85. |
| GBP/USD trying to hold above 100 hour M/A Posted: 13 Nov 2009 01:34 AM PST Gbp/Usd is trading above its 100 hour M/A but doesn’t seem to have much momentum. A break back below this point should bring the pair down to 1.6620 area, inline with 38.2% Fibo and a support point in recent days. If it remains above we should test 1.6700.
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| German Preliminary GDP mostly inline with expectations Posted: 12 Nov 2009 11:07 PM PST German Preliminary GDP q/q came in at 0.7%, slightly weaker than the 0.8% expected. Y/y came in at -4.7%, stronger than the -5.0% expected. Eur/Usd has risen about 10 points since release, now trading at 1.4877. |
| Posted: 12 Nov 2009 08:28 PM PST
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| EUR/USD Finds Some Technical Support Posted: 12 Nov 2009 04:26 PM PST The EUR/USD has sold off of recent highs on a USD move, but has found some support at the 4-200hr moving average. The pair has also found some mild resistance at the 4-100hr moving average during the NY trading day and early in Asia. We will watch this tight range and see if perhaps some of this USD appreciation has to do with short USD positions being unwound into year-end as some profit taking could be in order for the short-term.
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| New Zealand Finance Minster English Posted: 12 Nov 2009 03:55 PM PST The NZ Finance Minister Bill English had the following comments during an interview, which sent the Kiwi slightly lower:
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