Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD races through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4782 level
- US Data much better than expectations
- USDJPY falls early on and rebounds. 89.83 floor. Above 90.09 positive.
- Nov 2 2009 Forex Market Update
- GBPUSD up and down day again. The 1.6344 is the days floor and 1.6397 and 1.6431 provide upside resistance.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.2.2009
- $EURUSD move up to test 100 hour MA and backs off. Looking for NY direction.
- US ISM Manufacturing Index due at 10:00 AM today
- UK Manufacturing PMI
- EUR Final Manufacturing PMI
- Swiss SVME PMI
- Sterling breaks below 100 hour M/A
- Aussie Commodity Prices
- 11-2 Economic Calendar
- TD Securities Inflation (AUD)
| EURUSD races through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4782 level Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:10 AM PST
The better than expected us data at 10 AM shot the EURUSD through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4782 level. The price approaches resistance at the 1.4827 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the double top from last week at 1.5061 level. Given the better data, I would expect good buyers on dips. The 1.4795 level should provide support now (old high for the day). |
| US Data much better than expectations Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:05 AM PST ISM rose to 55.7 from 52.6 last month and expectations of 53.0. The Price index rose to 65 from 63.5. The Pending Home sales rose 6.1% which was also much higher than expectation of 0.0% . Finally Construction Spending rose by 0.8% vs expectations of a -0.2% decline. All the numbers are much better than expectations and as a result, we are seeing a move into the risky currency pairs. The USDJPY is up strongly, the EURUSD is ups, GBPUSD is up, USDCHF is down, commodity pairs are also higher. Stocks are up, Gold is up, oil is up. |
| USDJPY falls early on and rebounds. 89.83 floor. Above 90.09 positive. Posted: 02 Nov 2009 06:53 AM PST
Over the weekend the USDJPY fell sharply on the back of expectation of lower stocks from CIT bankruptcy and perhaps more bank closures over the weekend. The price gapped through support at the 89.89 level and fell to a low of 89.17 in the first hour. From there the price started it’s sharp rebound. which has taken the price back above the 89.89 level and the close from Friday at 90.00. The high reached 90.30. For today, the price is back above the 100 bar MA on the short term chart at the 90.06 level. The price has been below and above this line on a number of occassions today, but has used the level as a point of reflection when approached. Below the moving average, watch the 89.83-89 to continue to provide support. A break should target 89.60 area. On the upside, the 90.30 level is next resistance. This is the high for the day |
| Nov 2 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 02 Nov 2009 06:50 AM PST New Video Pending Please email greg@fxdd.com if you would like to be added to the email list to receive Forex market videos each day. Daily videos are no longer being sent through Metatrader at this time. |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2009 05:45 AM PST
The GBPUSD fell on the opening, recovered and sold off again. The pair continues it’s volatile trade making grasping on to a trend difficult. Traders should pay attention to technical clues and keep risk to a minimum. IF one of the sharp moves can be gained, find the target and take some profit, as market reverses are pretty deep. From a technical basis now, the price has been able to remain below the 100 hour MA for the last 6 hours. The last test took the price right up to the line and backed off. This level comes in at 1.6431 currently and although 70 pips away from the current price, look for sellers against this level today (put a star by that moving average). Before that level look for sellers against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6397 level.
ON the downside, there is an intraday floor developing at the 1.6344 to 1.6352 level. Five of the last 6 hours has had bottoms in this range. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.2.2009 Posted: 02 Nov 2009 05:26 AM PST
The USD and JPY fell overnight as demand increases for higher-yielding assets. Signs that global economies are starting to recover from the worst economic slump in over 60 years are moving investors to seek riskier investments. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European equities are higher at this time. US Futures are pointing to a positive opening this morning. Oil:$77.77 Gold:$1054.10 Today’s Data: Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| $EURUSD move up to test 100 hour MA and backs off. Looking for NY direction. Posted: 02 Nov 2009 05:11 AM PST The EURUSD moved up this morning on the back of mover risk tolerance it seems. The PMI data came out as expected at 50.7. Although as expected it was the first move above the 50 level which signals growth in the sector, since May 2008. The low reached 33.5 in February 2009.
From a technical basis, the price reached a low of 1.4703 which was a pip short of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the October low to the October high. On the topside, the high today breached the 100 hour MA at the 1.4786 level - moving to a high of 1.4795. However, the price has moved back down below that key moving average level and has not been able to close above this key level today. A move and close above is needed to excite the bulls. Going forward, there should be resistance at the 100 hour MA at 1.4784. A move back above this level should look toward the 1.4830 (close from Thursday) and 1.4840 level (38.2% of the October high low range).
On the downside, there is intraday short term support at the 1.4767 level (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart -blue line in the 5 minute chart above) and below that the 1.4751 level (200 bar MA level on the same chart - green line). If the price can hold these levels, it is likely we extend the upside range today. Look for buyers on dips against these levels. A break targets the low from Friday at 1.4716 and below that the low support at 1.4702 once again. |
| US ISM Manufacturing Index due at 10:00 AM today Posted: 02 Nov 2009 04:55 AM PST
The US ISM Manufacturing Index is due at 10 AM today. The expectation is for a gain to 53.0 from 52.60 last month. The index bottomed at 32.9 in December 2009. Since then the index has risen 8 of the last 9 months. Last month was the first dip in the index over that time period.
The price index is expected to show an increase to 64.00 from 63.5 last month. This also bottomed in December 2008 at a low 18 value. Like the ISM index, this measure has risen for 8 of the last 9 months with last month being the only decline. There are inflation hawks out there but it relies on a sharp increase in demand and with unemployment still depressed, the economy is likely to remain ho hum and inflation is likely to follow suit. |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2009 01:36 AM PST The GBP caught a bid across the board as Octobers Manufacturing PMI in the UK was 53.7; much better than its forecast of 50.0 and prior reading of 49.5. Sterling traded up slightly prior to the release of the number than shot up 40 pips to the 1.6400 handle upon the better than expected release. It has than come off slightly and is trading at 1.6385 against the USD. |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2009 01:09 AM PST Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone for October came in as expected at 50.7 which caused the EUR to catch a modest bid and push a new session high of 1.4784 against the USD. Since then, it has pulled back and it currently trading at 1.4770. |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2009 12:32 AM PST Swiss SVME PMI for October came in at 54.0 versus its forecast of 54.8 and prior reading of 54.3, but the CHF had little reaction to the release. |
| Sterling breaks below 100 hour M/A Posted: 02 Nov 2009 12:17 AM PST Gbp/Usd has broken below its 100 hour M/A of 1.6430 and has since lost another 80 pips to trade down to 1.6350. There may be support at 1.6338, which is a trendline of old hourly lows. If that level hold look for the pair to rebound to 1.6385-90 area. A break below 1.6338 can see the trade below 1.6300. The former is a more likely scenario in the short run.
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| Posted: 01 Nov 2009 09:37 PM PST Australian Commodity Prices (y/y) came in at -45.2% versus its prior reading of -32.3%. The market showed a limited reaction to the release as the AUD trades off session highs. |
| Posted: 01 Nov 2009 08:45 PM PST
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| Posted: 01 Nov 2009 03:50 PM PST The Australian inflation readings for October came in lower month over month, but slightly lower year over year to a muted reaction, as the market tries to recover after an abrupt move on the open. TD Securities Inflation (MoM%) - Actual:-0.3% Prior:0.0% TD Securities Inflation (YoY%) - Actual:1.25 Prior:1.3% |
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