Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- $EURUSD covers the extremes now. Double top, Double bottom in place
- USDJPY tests the weeks floor level and bounces
- Nov 06 2009 Forex Market Update
- EURUSD tries the upside pre stocks but stops before 1.4881 level
- EURUSD down on the higher unemployment rate
- US Unemployment Rate rose to 10.2%. NFP falls -190K but better revision a consolation
- GBPUSD holds 1.6635 AGAIN. Comes toward unchange before the number
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.6.2009
- EURUSD pretty much unchanged as Unemployment awaited
- Canadian Unemployment Rate rises to 8.6%. Net Change in Employment fall sharply
- US NFP/Employment Report due out at 8:30 AM.
- German Factory Orders
- UK PPI
- 11-6 Economic Calendar
- EUR/USD Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll
| $EURUSD covers the extremes now. Double top, Double bottom in place Posted: 06 Nov 2009 06:57 AM PST
The EURUSD moved above the 1.4881 level and moved up to the high for the day at 1.4905. The price stalled at that level and will now likely see resistance against the level as highs and lows seem to be favored. The low from yesterday held the bottom today with the price stopping at the 1.4813 with yesterdays low at 1.4811. Watching for support now against the 100/200 bar MA at the 1.4878 level (blue and green line in the 5 minute chart above). The volatility is not likely over. Gold squeezed up to 1101 and is back down to 1094. Oil is down $1 after being down over $2. Stocks are up $20 after being down earlier but it is coming off the highs now. |
| USDJPY tests the weeks floor level and bounces Posted: 06 Nov 2009 06:40 AM PST
The USDJPY is testing a week floor level at the 89.82 area. The floor started developing after the initial Monday sell off and started at 89.82. The low on Tuesday was 89.87. The low on Thursday was 89.98 the low today has reached 89.78 but so far the area is finding buyers not sellers. Watch this keylevel. Look for buyers against the level with stops likely through 89.75. A move above Wednesdays low of 90.04 would be a good, bullish sign for the USDJPY. The 90.37/45 area would be an upside target for the pair. |
| Nov 06 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 06 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. A busy day in the Forex. Watch the report for insight into trading around the US Non farm payrolls. To be added to the daily video list email greg@fxdd.com Our next live training online will be on Nov 10 2009 at 4pm |
| EURUSD tries the upside pre stocks but stops before 1.4881 level Posted: 06 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST
The EURUSD squeezed above the 1.4855 level (see prior post) but stopped short of resistance at 1.4881 where some “remembered” prices from trade earlier today (see chart above) and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located (blue line). I guess I cannot be too surprised. The stock market open will likely help dictate the direction with 1.4881, 1.4855 and 1.4811 (double bottom yesterday and today) the high, pivot and low extremes for traders. Breaks outside the limits target 1.4905 and 1.4793/97. Use the 1.4855 as the bullish or bearish bias - above bullish, below bearish for the time being at least |
| EURUSD down on the higher unemployment rate Posted: 06 Nov 2009 06:02 AM PST
The higher unemployment rate has the EURUSD down. The key support at the 1.4793 area is still in tact as is the low from yesterday at the 1.4811. These are key levels to watch for clues. The low reached 1.4813. The stock market will be key of course so expect additional volatility. On the topside, watch 1.4855 level for some resistance. This was the low from earlier today and some lows from yesterday afternoon.
To be honest the number can be spun one way or the other. There is no discernable winner. Watch the technicals for the clues but it seems like a typical NFP day with additonal volatility and choppy trading conditions. |
| US Unemployment Rate rose to 10.2%. NFP falls -190K but better revision a consolation Posted: 06 Nov 2009 05:37 AM PST
There was a better revision in the previous month to -219 K from -263K. This is the one piece of good data. The workweek stayed unchanged at 33.0 hours. Manufacturing shed -61K jobs. 7.304 million people have lost their jobs since January 2008
Some other data shows that Temporary Workers showed an increase of 33K for the 3rd monthly gain in a row (revisions were higher). This suggests that there may be some shift in some sectors leading to employers hiring some temp worker until that time when the trend is fully established.
The underemployment rate rose to 17.5% from 17% last month. This is another bad indicator for spending going forward. Overall with revisions, NFP not so bad as the revisions helped, but the details are not so great with the unemployment rate still rising and the underemployed rising as well. Stocks are down about 80 points currently. Oil is down over $2 pointing toward slower economy. The Fed is on hold for an extended period as per their announcement this week. Workweek at record low levels suggests slack in the economy still despite the Temp worker increase. |
| GBPUSD holds 1.6635 AGAIN. Comes toward unchange before the number Posted: 06 Nov 2009 05:24 AM PST
The 1.6635 level held the topside again for the GBPUSD and the market came off. The price is near closing levels from yesterday at the 1.6581 level. Needless to say 1.6635 is the key level to watch on the upside. A move above targets 1.6661 and then 1.6693. On the downside a break of the 1.6550 level (midpoint of the move up this week) would be level to watch.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.6.2009 Posted: 06 Nov 2009 05:19 AM PST
All eyes are on this morning’s Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment rate set for 8:30 AM. The USD is weaker, and speculation that the US shed less jobs may have investors seeking higher-yielding assets. Asian and European equities were mostly higher. US futures are higher this morning. Oil:$79.30 Gold:$1093.60 Today’s Data: Have a GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK
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| EURUSD pretty much unchanged as Unemployment awaited Posted: 06 Nov 2009 05:12 AM PST The EURUSD is pretty much unchanged today as the market awaits the Unemployment report. Dow futures are pretty much unchanged. Oil is up 0.35 cents. Gold is up a few buck from yesterday’s 5 PM closing level.
From a technical perspective, the 1.4927 level was the high seen last week. A move above this level should pave the way toward a test of 1.4986 area where there was a floor going back to the October 22/23 time period. ON the downside, the 100 and 200 hour MA come in at the 1.4793/96 level. This is key support today. A break below this level should see further downside pressure. The markets are likely to be volatile through the report and probably for at least a 15 miutes. Later volatility will increase as the stock market opens as much of the currency movements are dependent on the stock market and this too can be very volatile as traders take profits, cut losses and add new positions. With increased volatility, risk increases so plan accordingly. |
| Canadian Unemployment Rate rises to 8.6%. Net Change in Employment fall sharply Posted: 06 Nov 2009 04:06 AM PST The Canadian Employment report came out worse than expected at -43.2K jobs shed versus expectation of a gain of 10K. This more than reversed the surprise 30.6 K rise seen last month. The Unemployment rate also rose more than expected at +8.6% from 8.4%last month. The expectation was for a rise to 8.5%. Part time jobs showed a 59.7K decline while full time jobs increased by 16.5K somewhat lessening the blow.
Nevertheless, the USDCAD is stronger off the data rising to a high of 1.0735. The price has moved back lower and is testing the 200 hour MA at 1.0707 level. The 100 hour MA is at the 1.0690 level. Look for support against this level with a stop below 1.0679. |
| US NFP/Employment Report due out at 8:30 AM. Posted: 06 Nov 2009 04:02 AM PST The all important NFP/US Unemployment report will be released at 8:30 in New York. The expectation is for the Unemployment Rate to reise to 9.9% from 9.8%. This is the highest level since June 1983. In December 1982 the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8%.
The Non Farm Payroll is expected to show a change of -175K versus a -263K last month. This would be the highest level since August 2008 and suggests that the employment situation is healing - albeit at a slow pace. To put what -175 job losses in perspective, the USA only lost more than -175K jobs, 21 months going back to 1976 if you don’t count the current string (13 months in a row of -175K).
Over the course of the current recession, a totaol of 7.2 million people have lost there jobs. This dwarfs the amount of jobs the stimulus measures have said to have been created so far (or avoided from being lost) which totaled around 650,000. The good news is the trajectory is going in the right direction.
Manufacturing employment is expected to show a decline of -42K for the current month. This would be the 23rd consecutive month decline and 39th of the last 40 months.
Of the jobs lost since January 2008, This sector has lost the highest % with 29% of the total jobs shed.
In other pieces of the report, the average earnings are expected to show a 0.1% MoM gain, the YoY measure is expected to rise to 2.2%. This would be the lowest gains since August 2004
Overall, risks increase during this release. The stock market reaction and commodity market reaction may be a catalyst for the movement and as we all know the stocks don’t officially open until 9:30 AM. Also look out for a revision in last months report which could cause whipsaw reaction in the market. The ADP report showed a upward revision of 27K in their report on Wednesday. So expect a volatile trading period for an extended period. Adjust risk parameters accordingly (i.e. smaller positions than normal) The Challenger report showed a better reading this month and Initial claims have showed an improvement this month. The negative is the ISM Manufacturing Employment component fell in the current week. |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2009 03:03 AM PST German Factory Orders m/m came in at 0.9%, slightly weaker than the 1.0% expected. Eur/Usd unaffected by news as market awaits uneployment data out of the US at 8:30 EST. The pair currently trades at 1.4895. |
| Posted: 06 Nov 2009 01:39 AM PST UK PPI Input m/m came in at 2.6%, stronger than the 1.5% expected. Y/y came in at 0.1%, stronger than the -1.3% expected. PPI Output m/m came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at 1.7%, weaker than the 1.9% expected. Mixed numbers for cable. Although the price action was a bit erratic just after this release there has been no change to Gbp as Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6615 and Gbp/Jpy at 150.35. |
| Posted: 05 Nov 2009 10:13 PM PST
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| EUR/USD Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll Posted: 05 Nov 2009 06:56 PM PST Ahead of tomorrow mornings Non-Farm Payroll release in the US, the EUR/USD pair has had a volatile trading week, helped higher following the dovish FOMC minutes. The pair again today broke the 1.49 handle briefly and the subsequent move lower was minimal, suggesting perhaps the correction is complete. The pairs RSI also continues to recover off recent lows. The pair now looks rangebound until the much anticipated release, which should dictate tomorrow’s move. During today’s Asian session the pair has been contained by the 4-100hr moving average.
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