Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY modestly lower today after better GDP overnight
- November 16th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
- Nov 16th 2009 Forex Market Update
- $GBPUSD moves lower than back higher on Retail Sales
- US Retail Sales mixed. Empire Manufacturing worse than expectation
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.16.2009
- $EURUSD starts the week with continuation move back to the upside
- US Retail Sales and Bernanke highlight the events today
- Eurozone CPI
- 11-16 Economic Calendar
- Japan’s Kan on the Wire
- Japan’s Projected Q3 GDP
| USDJPY modestly lower today after better GDP overnight Posted: 16 Nov 2009 07:05 AM PST
The Japan GDP came out better overnight and has helped the Japanese Yen (lower USDJPY). The price is below the 100 and 200 bar MA which are at the 89.51/53 level respectively. Watch these level today. As long as the price can remain below these levels, the bias is down for the pair with target at 89.28 and 89.17 (lows from November 11th and November 2nd respectively). The low for the year has come in at 88.00. |
| November 16th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 16 Nov 2009 06:42 AM PST |
| Nov 16th 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 16 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST New Video Pending |
| $GBPUSD moves lower than back higher on Retail Sales Posted: 16 Nov 2009 06:01 AM PST The GBPUSD is having trouble defining a trend today. The price moved higher initially, corrected lower and is back up but off the highs. The pair closed last week at the 1.6692 level last Friday. The high reached 1.6750 and declined to a low of 1.6668.
From a technical perspective, the price corrected to test the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6708 level post the Retail Sales number this morning. The two moving averages come in at the 1.6708 and 1.6711 level respectively. The price has been above and below these moving averages a few times today indicating a non trend bias. The moving averages are converging as well which is another indication of non- trending. Since the last dip held the moving average the bias is positive for the pair as long as the price remains above these level. The topside resistance comes in at the 1.6749 and then 1.6796. A dip below however, should lead to further downside pressure. The close at 1.6692 would be the support followed by 1.6660/70 area where there have been a number of lows over the last 24 trading hours. The 100 hour MA at he 1.6650 level should also attract downside bids at the area (blue line in the chart below). With stops on a move below.
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| US Retail Sales mixed. Empire Manufacturing worse than expectation Posted: 16 Nov 2009 05:33 AM PST The Retails Sales rose by 1.4% for the month. Ex Autos was worse at +0.2% vs +0.4% expectations. The prior month was revised lower to -2.3% from -1.5%. The less autos was also reduced slightly to +0.4% from +0.5%. Car sales led the way with an increase of 7.4%. Clothing Sales rose by 0.4%, Health stores rose by 0.5%, Restaurants increased by 1.2% for the first gains since may 2009, and department store sales rose by 0.3% for the month. On the downside, furnitture and home sales fell by -0.8% and electronic sales fell by -0.6%. Building Materials also fell by a large -2.4% for the month. The Empire Manufacturing index fell to 23.51 from 34.57 last month. The number last month was the highest since May 2004. Canada Manufacturing Sales rose by 1.4%. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.16.2009 Posted: 16 Nov 2009 05:29 AM PST
Continued demand for higher-yielding assets has pushed the USD and JPY lower overnight. The USD remains under pressure as the Fed reaffirms it’s plan to keep interest rates low to spur growth. Worldwide equity markets rallied, fueled by comments from Asian leaders that they will continue to stimulate growth thru stimulus packages. US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Commodities rose, with Gold reaching a new record of $1133.20/oz and Oil traded up from Friday’s close in New York. Today’s main attraction is Retail Sales data in the U.S. It is expected to rise from last months decline. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. consumer is opening up their wallets and spending. Oil:$77.25 Gold:$1128.10 Today’s Data: Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| $EURUSD starts the week with continuation move back to the upside Posted: 16 Nov 2009 05:20 AM PST The EURUSD has moved higher today. The pair closed Friday at 1.4920. The low today came in at the 1.4916. The high extended up to the 1.4993 - just short of the psychological 1.5000 level. The EURUSD fell last week from a high of 1.5047 last week on a barrage of comments from Treasury/global officials about the desire for a strong dollar (EURUSD went down to a low of 1.4821). However, on Friday, the currency reasserted the upside momentum and that has continued today.
From a technical perspective, the pair remained above the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart for most the Far East session (blue line in the chart above), but dipped below during the London session. The price dipped to test the 200 bar MA (green line above) and 100 hour MA (blue in the chart below) at the 1.4955 and 1.4948 levels respectively. The market had a low of 1.4954 and bounced higher. The price needs to break below these two key moving averages to confirm downside momentum. A break will target 1.4934 and then 1.4917 which is the 200 hour MA. On the topside, a move back above the 100 bar MA, would have additional resistance against the 1.5000 level. Above 1.5000 there is old tops at the 1.5016-20 level.
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| US Retail Sales and Bernanke highlight the events today Posted: 16 Nov 2009 04:44 AM PST
The US Retail Sales for the month of october will be released at 8:30 AM today. The expectation is for a gain of 1.0% for the month with the ex- Auto showing a smaller gain of +0.4%. Earlier this month the October Vehicle Sales for the US showed a rise to 10.45 Million units vs 9.2 Million. Last month Retail Sales fell by -1.5% as the cash for clunker program expired. However, the fall was less than expectations and the core measure also showed a 0.5% increase for the month. The Ex Auto increase expected this month would be the 3rd straight monthly increase. Also out this morning is the Empire Manufacturing Index for the month of November. This is one of a number of regional indices which show the strength or weakness of the local manufacturing economy. The expectation is for a decline t0 30.00 from 34.57 last month. Last month this index rose greater than expectations and rose to the highest level since May 2004. The index surveys Manufacturers as whether or not they are growing. A measure above zero is indicative of growth, while one below zero indcates contraction. The index has been positive for 3 months (this is to be the 4th month above zero). The government stimulus program and cash for clunkers has helped the manufacturing momentum in the area which accounts for 6% of economic activity in the state of NY. In Canada Manufacturing Sales for September will also be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a rebound from a -2.1% decline last month. This month a gains of +1.7% is expected. Last month the decline was attributed to fewer shipments of aircraft and Autos. A stronger number typically benefits the CAD$ (USDCAD down) while a weaker number will tend to have the effect of weakening the currency. However, with the US Retail Sales coming out at the same time the market can be more volatile. Fed’s Bernanke is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Economic Club Luncheon in NY at 12:15 AM NYT. It is unlikely that the Fed change anything materially since the last interest rate decision which took place in early November. |
| Posted: 16 Nov 2009 02:03 AM PST Eurozone CPI m/m came in at 0.2%, slightly weaker than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at -0.1%, inline with estimates. No effect to forex markets on these very benign figures. Eur/Usd continues to trade around 1.4970. |
| Posted: 15 Nov 2009 09:15 PM PST
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| Posted: 15 Nov 2009 04:43 PM PST Japan’s National Strategy Minister Kan had the following comments that helped the Yen gain a light bid ahead of the Nikkei open.
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| Posted: 15 Nov 2009 03:52 PM PST Japan’s 3rd quarter GDP projection came in better than expected and the risk pairs caught a light big initally against the USD, with the Yen selling off mildly against the USD. The release was as follows: GDP (QoQ) - Survey:0.7% Actual:1.2% Prior:0.6% GDP Annualized - Survey:2.9% Actual:4.8% Prior:2.3% Nominal GDP - Survey:-0.6% Actual:-0.1% Prior:-0.5% GDP Deflator (YoY) - Survey:0.1% Actual:0.2% Prior:0.5% |
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