Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance and moves lower
- Factory Orders a touch better. Durable Goods revised higher
- USDJPY moves up toward the 100 hour resistance at the 90.60 level
- Nov 03 2009 Forex Market Update
- $USDCHF breaks to the upside overnight at the 1.0267 level
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.3.2009
- $GBPUSD moves below 100 day MA but bounces again.
- AUDUSD tests trendline support again at 89.13 and bounces toward intraday resistance at 0.8971
- FXDD Free Online Training Nov 3 2009 4pm
- EURUSD moves sharply lower as dollar buying continues
- UK Construction PMI
- Eur/Jpy trading at tricky level
- 11-3 Economic Calendar
- RBA Comments Post Rate Decision
- RBA Rate Decision (AUD/USD)
| USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance and moves lower Posted: 03 Nov 2009 07:24 AM PST The USDJPY tested the 100 hour MA at the 90.57 level (came down from 90.60) and moved lower. The pair remains supported at 90.23 still. Look for range trading buyers to use the level as a backboard to lean against. I expect buyers against the levels with stops on breaks below the level. |
| Factory Orders a touch better. Durable Goods revised higher Posted: 03 Nov 2009 07:09 AM PST The Factory Orders came in at +0.9% vs +0.8% expectations. However, Durable Goods orders was revised higher to 1.4% from +1.0%. This is giving the stocks a little boost and also benefitting the EURUSD (and risk pairs).
The EURUSD continues to have upside resistance against the double bottom of 1.4683 but given the better data, the dips will likely be more shallow (1.4645 area). A break of 1.4683 should lead to higher levels with 1.4696 and 1.4718 the next targets. |
| USDJPY moves up toward the 100 hour resistance at the 90.60 level Posted: 03 Nov 2009 06:58 AM PST
The USDJPY has been moving higher in the NY session as stock move a bit higher. Stocks were set for a lower opening earlier today. However, the Berkshire Hathoway purchase of Burlington Northern eased some of the prsssure. This has led to a rebound in some of the risk pairs including the EURJPY and the USDJPY in the process. The pair has reached a high of 90.44 so far and has upside resistance at the 90.60 level where the 100 hour MA is found. I would expect sellers against this level with further resistance on a move above at the 90.75 level (50% of the move down from the October 27th high to the low). On the downside, support comes in at 90.23 now. |
| Nov 03 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 03 Nov 2009 06:37 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Sign up for the daily video list by emailing greg@fxdd.com |
| $USDCHF breaks to the upside overnight at the 1.0267 level Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:51 AM PST
The USDCHF moved higher in the London morning session as speculation that the central bank will continue to prevent appreciation. There were some comments form SNBs Jordan who said the central bank intervention has been successful in halting the currencies rise. The comments helped push the pair through the trendline resistance at the 1.0267 level which has held the topside on the daily chart since August. That trendline was tested yesterday and held. Today the break, led to to a sharp move higher. Now that the trendline has been broken the target on the upside looks toward the 1.0410 level. This is the 38.2% retracement level of the move down from the summer high of 1.1022 (the last corrective high for the pair). Before that, however, look for some resistance at the 1.0352-58 level where there are a few highs from October which halted moves higher at that time. Today, the high has reached 1.0337.
On the downside, look for support down at the 1.0278 level which was the high from yesterday and then at the trendline at the 1.0267. The market should not trade below these levels today. If they do, there is something amiss with the break. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.3.2009 Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:38 AM PST
The RBA (Australia) raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but their statement suggests that they may pause regarding any additional rates hikes. Global equity market fell, as UBS announced a larger than expected loss. Speculation isthat global economies may take longer than expected to recover. Oil:$77.59 Gold:$1062.25 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| $GBPUSD moves below 100 day MA but bounces again. Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:27 AM PST
The GBPUSD has traded above and below the 100 day MA for 11 of 13 days. Normally, when the 100 day MA is broken, the price moves away from the level. The fact the price is hanging around the level is indicative of a non-trending market. What we know about non-trending markets is they look to trend at some point. The longer it non-trends, the better chance for a trend type move of significance. We are looking for such a move. So how do you trade it? The best way to trade it is to look for low risk trades at the most important technical level. For the GBPUSD that is the 100 day MA. This average is going sideways (currently at 1.6361). If the price is below the level, the bias is down. If the price is above the bias is up. Unfortunately, the non-trend nature can lead to some whipsaw action. Today the price dipped below and went 10 pips only to rebound back above by about 30 pips. The next major breach to the downside, did have additional downside momentum and the price decline extended to a low of 1,6274.
The price is now back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which gives the intraday bias a more of a bullish sentiment once again (or at least suggests the bottom is in place). The upside resistance now comes in against the 200 bar MA at the 1.6356 - not a bad level to sell against with a stop above the 100 day MA at the 1.6361 level. We will see what happens. |
| AUDUSD tests trendline support again at 89.13 and bounces toward intraday resistance at 0.8971 Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:02 AM PST
The AUDUSD is testing trendline support once again today, despite the rise in rates by 25 basis points overnight. The trendline support comes in at the 89.13 level and the low for the day came in at the 89.15. Yesterday the trendline was testedas well and bounced. The rise in the Australian rates to 3.5% is the second in what should be a series of increases. This should normally increase the value of the AUD$. However, it seems the market was disappointed in the comments, or perhaps the hike was all priced in. As a result, when buyers are not there, the price falls and that is what we saw. How far can it go? The price should find support on dips. The country is the only of the major nations to be tightening credit at the moment. This gives it an advantage and that is reflected in the elevated price. Should the rest of the world start to tighten with them, the price will lose some of its luster. Nevertheless, the pair is considered a risk pair and when risk increases or when too many people are too long, the downside corrections occur. As a result, watch the support levels below. If they hold great. If they break, look for some liquidation to the next target. For the AUDUSD the trendline has held a number of different times already and thus it is a key support level. On a break, the long term target could take the pair down toward the 87.05 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move up since the summer low, should come into play from a longer term perspective. That is dependent on a break of the trendline, however and the ability to stay below that trendline. The holding of the level should find buyers against the level until broken.
On the topside, there is resistance currently at the 89.71 level. This is where the 100 bar MA on the 5 mnute chart is found. A move above this level should see the price move up toward the 200 bar MA at the 0.9012 level. Watch this level. |
| FXDD Free Online Training Nov 3 2009 4pm Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:00 AM PST
Hello Everyone. Our next Live online training will be Tuesday at 4pm. Sign up below. Host: Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Once you are approved by the host, you will receive a confirmation email with instructions for joining the session. The training will take place at http://FXDD.Webex.com |
| EURUSD moves sharply lower as dollar buying continues Posted: 03 Nov 2009 04:31 AM PST
The stock markets around the globe fell overnight and the Dow is looking weak as the day gets underway. Oil prices are down about a $1.00 as well. The EURUSD responded by falling quite dramatically in the London session. Along the way the price fell back through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4775 level. The prior day close at 1.4772. Finally, the momentum down pushed the price through the double bottom at the 1.4683 level. This helped accelerate the decline in the pair. The high for the day extended up to the 1.4810 level in the first few hours of trading as the market continued to struggle to find it’s direction -before the decline.
The pair tested downside support at the 1.4624 level and has bounced. We will watch that level on the price declines. Below that level, the longer term target at the 1.4560 level looms (38. On the topside, the 1.4683 level double bottom should be a level of resistance. Above that the 1.4710 level which is the 38.2% retracement level of the move down from yesterday.
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| Posted: 03 Nov 2009 01:34 AM PST UK Construction PMIcame in at 46.2, weaker than the 47.2 expected and 46.7 prior reading. Weak number for GBP which has been getting hit most of the session. currently Gbp/Usd is trading just off its low at 1.6300-05. |
| Eur/Jpy trading at tricky level Posted: 03 Nov 2009 12:26 AM PST Eur/Jpy is trading right around session lows after coming off just over 100 points. The 38.2% Fibo retracement using Oct. 29 high of 135.97 and Oct 30 low of 130.94 lies at 132.86. The pair has had a hard time to make a clean break below this level. If it does the pair may be in for a severe drop, possibly down to 131.00. If it holds look for a rebound to 133.50, the 50% Fibo lies at 133.46.
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| Posted: 02 Nov 2009 08:45 PM PST
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| RBA Comments Post Rate Decision Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:46 PM PST
The AUD continued lower across the board following the accompanying RBA comments. |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:35 PM PST The RBA rate decision came in as expected and the rates were raised by 25 basis points to 3.5%. Ahead of this we have seen the AUD have a tremendous sell off early in yesterday’s Asian session only to see the AUD/USD pair quickly rebound. The pair gained a further bid today on the back of rising commodity prices. On the chart below we see that once again the pair hit the trendline support yesterday before rebounding and another test could be in the future, the AUD has moved lower on this positive for the currency, first before the release and then further down after the release.
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