Thursday, November 12, 2009

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

GBPUSD consolidating. Awaits a directional move.

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 06:38 AM PST

greg17

The GBPUSD has consolidated the decline from yesterday and is setting up a triangle formation for the pair. The topside has the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the trendline at the 1.6571/73 area. On the downside, the  1.6528 level is the support. A break of either level should lead to a momentum move in that direction.

greg18

Looking at the hourly chart, the market has moved below the 200 hour MA and seems to want to move away from it to the downside.  A move below the low for the day at 1.6517 should lead to further downside momentum with a target at the 1.6408 level. This is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Oct 13th low (not shown in the chart above) to the Nov 6th high.

Nov 12 2009 Forex Market Update

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST

Click here to view the embedded video.

A busy day in the forex. Watch the video for trading opportunities and to get a better picture of the markets.

Initial Claims fall to 502K vs 510K. Continuing Claims fall too

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 05:35 AM PST

greg16

Initial Claims fall to 502K and Continuing Claims fell to 5631K (vs exp of 5700). Both were better than expectations.

The better data has pushed the EURUSD up to resistance at 1.4935.  The USDJPY has continued its move to the upside as well on the flight into risk trades continues. 

It will be interesting to see if the better data leads to stock increase and if the EURUSD moves up off of this dynamic.  This has been the typical reaction for the pair (rally with the stock market). However, with the talk of a stronger dollar today, will that link be discarded in favor of a stronger dollar/lower EURUSD instead. 

The Dow Futures are down 30 points. S&P is up 4.80. A clue will be if the price can remain below the 1.4935 level (see chart above). The 100 hour MA remains as additional upside resistance at 1.4962 but a momentum down would benefit from the market holding resistance at 1.4935 level.

Weekly Initial/Continuing Claims data due at 8:30 AM

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 05:24 AM PST

The expectation is for the weekly Initial Claims to show a slight fall to 510 K from 512 K last week. This value is still very high and suggests that despite the overtures of better times, the employment situation remains fragile.  The Continuing Claims are expected to continue its fall to 5700 from 5749K last week. This series has been declining fairly steadily since peaking in the week of June 26th when it stood at 6904K. Part of the fall may be due to workers no longer qualifying for claims any longer.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.12.2009

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 05:19 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-1-150x200Good Mornings:

The USD is a touch stronger this morning.  No major news events caused this-may be just a bit of profit taking.

Again we hear from U.S. Treasury Sec’t Geithner that it’s “very important” for the U.S. to maintain a “strong dollar”.  He also reiterated the administration’s commitment to reducing the deficit.  It seems like a lot of rhetoric with very little substance to me.

Gold set another record overnight at $1122/oz. Oil slips below $79/barrel.

OIl:$78.50                           Gold:$1113.50

Today’s data:
Jobless Claims:             exp: 510K             prior: 512K

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDJPY breaks up above moving average resistance. 90.17 next target

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 05:08 AM PST

greg14

The USDJPY has broken above the 100 hour moving average at the 89.90 level.  This should now be support for the currency with the next upside target at the 90.17 level. Above that level is resistance at 90.37.

greg15

ECB’s Bonello talks about strong dollar. Reiterates comments from Geithner.

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 04:51 AM PST

ECB Bonello is on the newswire talking about a growing concenus on a strong dollar against the EURO and other currencies.  This mirrors other comments from Geithner from earlier this morning regarding the desire for a stronger dollar. Also of note is the movement for a stronger Chinese Yuan.  A stronger Yuan has been hurting European export growth as the Yuan is tied to the value of the dollar. Since the dollar has been falling against the EURO, the EURO has likewise appreciated against the Yuan.  This makes exports of European goods more expensive and less competitive.

So the comments coming out of the meetings in Singapore seem to be in favor of shifting the focus away from a weaker dollar/yuan and transferring some of the weakness to other currencies - helping their exports.

EURUSD moves below the 100 hour MA today

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 04:44 AM PST

greg121

The EURUSD has moved  through the 100 hour MA today at the 1.4962 level moved to a low, corrected one last time to test the level once again and started the sell off.  The price in early NY trade is making new lows. The next targets are the 1.4886 level (38.2% of the move up from the November 3rd low to the November 11th high) and then the 200 hour MA at the 1.4877.    The market is currently stalling at the 1.4908/17 level which stalled the upside move on November 4th to 6th.  Look for upside resistance at the most recent lows for the day at 1.4926 and 1.4935. 

greg131

Swiss ZEW Survey off from prior reading

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 02:05 AM PST

Swiss ZEW Suevey came in at 56.4, weaker than the 65.0  prior reading. There were no expectations for this figure.

Usd/Chf  is 10 points of its high, currently trading at 1.0110. Eur/Chf  currently trades at 1.5108 in very narrow trading.

Eurozone Industrial Production

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 02:02 AM PST

Eurozone Industrial Production came in at 0.3%, weaker than the 0.6% expected and the 0.9% prior reading.

Eur/Usd relatively unchanged post-number as the pair trades at 1.4940.

Gbp/Usd continues downtrend

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 12:47 AM PST

Since trading up to the 38.2 Fibo (1.6619) sterling has been on a downtrend. The pair has broken below its 200 hour M/A (1.6566) and has continued to trade down to 1.6517 which is the low from November 6. If the pair can stay below 1.6566 a move back down to 1.6517 is possible. A break above could find the pair testing 1.6600. It seems the former scenario is more likely.

vincent_fx00005

11-12 Economic Calendar

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 09:06 PM PST

region_forex_00010

Australian Employment Report

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 04:31 PM PST

The Australian October Employment Report was released generally better than expected and the AUD broke through the recent highs . The details of the report were as follows:

Employment Change - Survey:-10K    Actual:24.5K    Prior:40.6K

Unemployment Rate - Survey:5.8%    Actual:5.8%    Prior:5.7%

PT Employment Change - Actual:21.5   Prior:5.2

FT Employment Change -Actual:2.9   Prior:35.4

Participation Rate - Survey:65.2%   Actual:65.2%   Prior:65.2%

Japan’s Domestic Consumer Inflation Report

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 04:09 PM PST

Japan’s Domestic CGPI reading was lower than expected for October, both on a monthly and yearly basis, moving the Yen marginally lower across the board. The release was as follows:

Domestic CGPI (MoM) - Survey:-0.1%   Actual:-0.7%    Prior:0.1%

Domestic CGPI (YoY) - Survey:-6.0%   Actual:-6.7%    Prior:-7.9%

Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 04:07 PM PST

The Aussie November Consumer Inflation Expectation came in lower than the prior reading at 3.2% vs. 3.5%. The AUD had a minimal reaction to this release as everyone awaits the October employment report, expected in 30 minutes.
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