Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- US ISM Non Manufacturing comes in a weaker than expectations. EURUSD continues the squeeze higher.
- $EURUSD looks to test upside resistance at 1.4822 (200 hour MA)
- $USDJPY tests intraday support as market consolidates overnight gains
- USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0231 level
- ADP NFP estimate comes out as expected, but prior month revised higher.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.4.2009
- GBPUSD boosted by PMI Services today. Bias is positive for the pair
- Nov 4 2009 Forex Market Update
- Challenger job cut announcements drop 51% from a year ago
- Mortgage Applications rise by 8.2% in the current week. Refinancings rise but Purchase index falls
- EURUSD stalls at the 100 hour MA as NY enters the fray
- Eurozone PPI
- UK Services PMI
- Gbp/Jpy trades above 100 hour M/A
- 11-4 Economic Calendar
| US ISM Non Manufacturing comes in a weaker than expectations. EURUSD continues the squeeze higher. Posted: 04 Nov 2009 07:07 AM PST US Non Manufacturing came in at 50.6 vs expectation of 51.5 and 50.9 last month. INVENTORY came in at 43.0 vs 47.5 last month
Despite the weaker data, the EURUSD first declined (to a low of 1.4798) but then shot higher above resistance defined by the 200 hour MA (at 1.4822) The price has extended to a high of 1.4835 on stop buying on the disappointing reaction. Shorts are feeling the squeeze. |
| $EURUSD looks to test upside resistance at 1.4822 (200 hour MA) Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:50 AM PST
The high from yesterday at 1.4810 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.4822 level should provide some profit taking resistance for the pair. Look for sellers against the level. A break targets 1.4845 and then the double top at the 1.4858 level. ON the downside, look for support now at the 1.4775 level where highs and lows are found on the 5 minute chart (see below). The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also moving toward this area..
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| $USDJPY tests intraday support as market consolidates overnight gains Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:45 AM PST
The USDJPY has been consolidating the gains it attained overnight. The consolidation has allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up with the market. Now the market has a decision. Does it extend the move to the upside, or fall through moving average support and correct further. On a break sown the 90.57 area should provide support. This was the high from yesterdays trade in the pair.
If the price is able to bounce off this support, the 91.06 level is upside resistance. This is where the price stalled today and where the 200 hour MA is found. A break of this level will next target in the intermediate term the 91.72 level which is the old low from July 2009. The last high on October 29th peaked at 91.60. |
| USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0231 level Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:00 AM PST
As the market awaits the Fed decision this afternoon, the dollar has been under pressure against most currency pairs. The USDCHF is no exception. The price has declined below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0231 level and next looks toward the 200 hour MA at the 1.0197 level. The price also remains below the 100 and 200 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0242 and 1.0252 levels respectively. Watch these levels on the upside this morning. The market may continue to be volatile/range bound as it awaits the Fed decision. There is also key events and data over the next few days with the BOE and ECB Rate desicion and the NFP report on Friday looming. All have the potential to move the market. |
| ADP NFP estimate comes out as expected, but prior month revised higher. Posted: 04 Nov 2009 05:29 AM PST
The ADP report came out as expected (-203K vs -198K expectations). The prior month was revised higher (lower decline) to -227 from -254K. The -203k reading is the lowest since July 2008 for this series The NFP last month came in at -263K which may suggest a downward revision may be in the cards on Friday. This has given the EURUSD and GBPUSD a boost. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.4.2009 Posted: 04 Nov 2009 05:25 AM PST
The USD and JPY dropped overnight on speculation that the FED will not raise interest rates this afternoon, and that the FED will reiterate past statements that rates will stay on hold for an “extended period”. The markets will be looking for any changes in the FOMC’s statement regarding the economy and interest rates. Worldwide equity markets and commodities rose overnight. Gold reached a record high of $1095/oz. US Futures are pointing to a positive opening this morning. On the US political front the Democrats lost 2 key Governor races. Both New Jersey and Virginia favored the Republican candidates, over the Democrats-who were both supported and campaigned for by President Obama. Republicans will now be the occupants of their statehouses. Oil:$80.19 Gold:$1089.12 Today’s data: Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| GBPUSD boosted by PMI Services today. Bias is positive for the pair Posted: 04 Nov 2009 05:08 AM PST
The GBPUSD moved higher today on the back of better than expected PMI Services data. The low for the pair came in at 1.6400 in the quiet range bound Far East session. In the London session the price stalled first at the 100 hour MA before breaking through at the 1.6435 level. The break was also confirmed by the technical break of the ceiling on the 5 minute chart as well at that same level (see chart below). The break led to high of 1,6543 so far today. The high last week extended up to 1.6603. The high on Friday reached 1.6578. These levels are obvious targets for the pair. On the downside, there is support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6488 level currently and moving higher (watch this moving average). This level is also the 38.2% retracement of the days range. Look for value buyers against these levels.
The BOE will meet tomorrow and decide on the Quantitative Easing desires at that time. THe expectations are that they increase the amount by 50MM pounds to 225M from 175M. This seems to be expected by the market and priced in. However, as always the technicals will dictate the bias. The 5 minute and hourly charts are both positive. Keep an eye on the key technical levels outlined above.
A reminder. The 100 day MA is 1.6362. The price is above this key level so the longer term bias remains positive for the pair. In 11 of the last 13 days, the price has traded above and below this moving average as the market consolidates. Today if the price can remain above the level, this will be only the 3rd day in the last 15 that the price has not touched that line. This is positive from a longer term perspective. Generally speaking, the price tends to want to move away from the 100 day moving average after a while. |
| Nov 4 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 04 Nov 2009 07:02 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. To be added to the daily video email list, please email greg@fxdd.com |
| Challenger job cut announcements drop 51% from a year ago Posted: 04 Nov 2009 04:37 AM PST
The Challenger Job cut announcements versus a year ago fell by 51%. Last year in October there were 112,884 job cuts announcements. This year the number declined to 55,679 for a 51% decline. This is indicative of a stabilizing/improving job market. The announced job cuts were led by reductions in automotive companies as they look to ramp up production. Yesterday, vehicle sales data in the US for October was better than expectations with Domestic sales rising to 7.94M from 6.8M in September and Total Vehicle Sales rising to 10.45M from 9.2M.
At 8:15 this morning, the ADP Non Farm Employment estimate is due. The expectation is for a decline of -198K vs -254K last month. This data is all a precursor to the Non Farm Payroll/Unemployment Report to be released on Friday at 8:30 in NY. That is expected to show a declien of -175K vs -263K last month. This would be the highest level (least job losses) since August 2008. |
| Mortgage Applications rise by 8.2% in the current week. Refinancings rise but Purchase index falls Posted: 04 Nov 2009 04:07 AM PST The Mortgage applications rose by 8.2% in the current week. This was the first increase after 3 straight monthly declines. The Purchase index fell by -1.8%. While the Refinance Index rose by 14.5%. The average rate fell to 4.97% vs 5.04%. The EURUSD is getting a bump up and has moved above the 100 hour MA at the 1.4763 level. The market broke down from the 1.4775 level yesterday. As long as the price can remain above the 1.4757/1.4761 area the pair will target the 1.4810 area. |
| EURUSD stalls at the 100 hour MA as NY enters the fray Posted: 04 Nov 2009 03:54 AM PST
The EURUSD has been boosted again today by higher gold prices. In addition, the PMI Services index was revised higher to 52.6 from 52.3 announced earlier. This was the highest level since November 2007. The price has moved up to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.4763 level. If you recall yesterday the price fell after falling below this moving average at the 1.4775 level. The rise to the level has stalled at the level as NY arrives for the trading day. The price is at a decision level. Does it break through with momentum as NY enters or correct back down. A break targets the high from yesterday at 1.4810. The 200 hour MA is at 1.4825 and coming down, while the double top of the week or so range comes in at 1.4858. On the downside, look for support at the 1.4710, and below that level the 1.4683 level which was a double bottom until the downside was breached yesterday. |
| Posted: 04 Nov 2009 02:02 AM PST Eurozone PPI m/m came in at -0.4%, weaker than the -0.3% expected. Not much market reaction to data as Eur/Usd continues to trade aaround 1.4755. |
| Posted: 04 Nov 2009 01:31 AM PST UK Services PMI came in at 56.9, stronger than the 55.5 expected and 55.3 prior reading. Cable got a 20 pip boost on news as Gbp/Usd currently trades at 1.6520. |
| Gbp/Jpy trades above 100 hour M/A Posted: 03 Nov 2009 11:06 PM PST Gbp/Jpy is trading above its 100 hour M/A of 148.75. If it holds above this level look for a run up to the 200 hour M/A at 149.42. This level should provide good resistance as the 61.8% Fibo lies at 149.42 and an old data line of previous lows adds more resistance (149.43). The pair should be hard pressed to break above the 200 hour.
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| Posted: 03 Nov 2009 08:56 PM PST
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