Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD continues consolidation today. Shorter term moving averages converge.

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 05:51 AM PST

The EURUSD consolidated for the NY session, staying between 1.4980 and 1.5020. Today, the topside was the same, but the downside was explored.  The low for the day came in at the 1.4951. 

greg1

The consolidation has led to the market moving above and below the 100 and 200 bar moving average on a 5 minute chart.  In addition, the two moving averages have converged at the 1.4986 level.  When the moving averages and the price converge this is indicative of a non-trend market.  Non-trend markets tend to transition into trending markets, so continue to look for a move at some point.  The simple rule to follow is above the moving averages, is a bullish bias, and below is a bearish bias.   Look for momentum and moves outside of the range to confirm the direction.

greg3

On the downside, the low at 1.4951 and then 1.4940 as targets.  A break below these levels should lead to further downside pressure. 

On the topside,  the close yesterday was 1.5000 and the double top at 1.5020 are obvious key levels to breach.

Nov 10th 2009 Forex Market Update

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 05:30 AM PST

Click here to view the embedded video.

FXDD Invites you to attend a Free Online Training Tuesday Nov 10 2009 at 4pm New York Time- REGISTER HERE

Once you are approved by the host, you will receive a confirmation email with instructions for joining the session.

FXDD Free Online Training Tuesday Nov 10 2009 4pm - Register Here

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 05:25 AM PST

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FXDD Invites you to attend a Free Online Training Tuesday Nov 10 2009 at 4pm New York Time- REGISTER HERE

Once you are approved by the host, you will receive a confirmation email with instructions for joining the session.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.10.2009

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 05:21 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-trading-3-150x200Good Morning:

The worst news of the evening was Fitch Ratings stating that the UK is the most at risk of any of the major economies from losing their  AAA credit rating.  The concern is mainly about their budget deficit, as the global recession took a bit out of UK tax revenues and caused a large jump in state sponsored welfare costs.

The GBP dropped overnight, and the USD was mostly weaker with the EUR/USD pair reaching 1.5020.

Asian equity markets were higher, and European stock indexes were mixed.  MBIA (the world’s largest bond insurer), missed estimates for Q3.  US Futures are lower at this time.

Oil: $79.35                              Gold:$1099.40

HAVE  A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDJPY moves toward MA resistance

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 03:42 AM PST

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The USDJPY found support overnight against the 89.65 area once again (61.8% of the last move higher from the Oct 7th low at 88.00  to the October 27nd high of 92.32). The low came in at 89.68 today. Yesterday, the low came in at the same level.  The ability to hold support gave buyers a level to lean against (stops on a break below), and the market started to move higher.

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Now the price is testing the midpoint of that same move down at the 90.16 level.  Above that is better target resistance at the 100 hour moving average which currently comes in at the 90.31 level.  A break above this key moving average will look toward the 200 hour MA at 90.41.  The price - apart from a brief break from the FOMC meeting results last week - has been below this moving average since October 30th.  Look for some profit taking sellers against these levels this morning.

$GBPUSD bounces off 100 hour MA to test resistance at 1.6721

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 03:18 AM PST

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As per the previous post (CLICK HERE), the GBPUSD found support against the 100 hour MA and started a move higher. The sell off was prompted by a report that Fitch may downgrade the UK’s AAA status.  The 100 hour MA came in at 1.6607. The low stopped at 1.6600.  Additional support was breached at 1.6620. 

When the price was able to move back above the 1.6620 level, the price found buyers again with help from better housing data as well.

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The price is now testing resistance against the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.6718, and the midpoint of resistance from the move down from yesterday’s high of 1.6842 to todays low of 1.6600.  That level comes in at 1.6621.  Look for sellers against these levels with stops on a break above.  The high reached so far has been 1.6722.  On the downside, look for support at 1.6692 and below that against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6682 level currently.

German & Eurozone ZEW survey

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 02:05 AM PST

German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment came in at 51.1, weaker than the 55.0 expected.
Current Situation came in at -65.6, stronger than the -70.0 expected.

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 51.8, weaker than the 58.0 expected.

Overall bad numbers for the Euro. Eur.Usd sold off about 20 pips to currently trade at 1.4980.

UK Trade Balance worse than expected; DCLG House Prices stronger

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 01:35 AM PST

UK Trade Balance came in at -7.2B, weaker than the -6.1B expected.

DCLG House Prices y/y came in at -4.1%, stronger than the -4.9% expected.

Gbp got a small lift on heels of better housng number as Gbp/Usd now trades at 1.6675, up about 25 points.

French Industrial Production

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 11:47 PM PST

French Industrial Production m/m came in at -1.5%, weaker than the 0.7% expected.

No market reaction to figure as Eur/Usd trades at 1.4980.

Sterling may test 100 hour M/A, again

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 11:32 PM PST

Gbp/Usd appears to be on its way to test its 100 hour M/A of 1.6614. This would be the third time in consecutive hours, after Fitch’s negative comments on UK’s rating status, that the pair would try to break below this level. A break below can bring the pair down to 1.6550-55 area. If it holds look for a retracement back to 1.6700.

vincent_fx000041

German Final CPI & WPI

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 11:07 PM PST

German Final Consumer Price Index m/m came in at 0.1%, inline with expectations.

Wholesale Pice Inex m/m came in at -0.4%, weaker than the 0.2% expected.

Eur/Usd had just popped up and appeared to be poised to break through 1.5000. This bad data possibly stopped some momentum to the upside for the pair. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.4992.

Sterling tumbles on possible Fitch downgrade

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 09:40 PM PST

Sterling  just took a huge hit on comments made by Fitch hinting at the possible downgrade of UK’s AAA status. The rating agency also stated that Germay was the least likely of European nations to face a downgrade. Gbp/Usd tumbled down over 125 points to 1.6608. Eur/Gbp has also had a severe move, now trading above .9000, currently at .9015.

11-10 Economic Calendar

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 08:32 PM PST

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Japan’s Current Account Total & Trade Balance

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 04:59 PM PST

The following Japanese economic releases for September have had little effect on the market as it attempts to find its footing after yesterday’s move against the USD.

Current Account Total - Survey:1510B   Actual:1567.9   Prior:1171.2

Adjusted Current Account Total - Survey:1315.4B   Actual:1338   Prior:1233.6

Trade Balance - Survey:630B   Actual:599.2   Prior:303.7

Australian Business Confidence (AUD/USD)

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 04:41 PM PST

The Australian Business Confidence and Conditions readings for October beat Septembers, however the AUD is little changed as it already trades just off 2009 highs. The release was as follows:

NAB Business Confidence - Actual:12    Prior:3

NAB Business Conditions - Actual:16    Prior:14

On the trendline below, that we have been following since this summer was hit twice to begin November and has survived both tests, followed by today’s move toward the highs. It will be critical to see the pair break the highs and follow through otherwise another test of the trendline could be upon us. However, the next test could be harder to survive.

audusd2
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