Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- GBPUSD moves lower. Looking for a break below 1.6754 as next downside clue
- Nov 18 2009 Forex Market Update
- Feds Bullard on newswires
- Housing Starts fall sharply. CPI a touch higher than expected. EURUSD falls on weaker news.
- US CPI and Housing Starts/Building Permits at 8:30 AM
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.18.2009
- EURUSD back and forth. Is today a “forth” day or a “back” day?
- BOE Barker on the newswires. EURGBP rises today. GBPUSD mixed
- BoE minutes send sterling lower
- Eurozone current account
- 11-18 Economic Calendar
- Cable Retesting 50% Retracement
- Australian Wage Cost Index
- Australian Q3 Westpac Leading Index
| GBPUSD moves lower. Looking for a break below 1.6754 as next downside clue Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:56 AM PST
The British Pound continues to be pressured against the EURO and is now coming under pressure versus the USD. The GBPUSD has been moving in a volatile up and down fashion today but has extended the downside range at 1.6769 and should head down to test the low from yesterday at the 1.6754 level. Below that level would look toward the 100 hour MA currently at the 1.6724 level. The risk to the upside is a move back to the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.6805 level (see chart below). Needless to say , the currency pair has been whipped around today which can be scary and frustrating to trade. However, with the moving averages converged and the market non-trending, I am looking for a trend type move away from the shorter term MAs (see chart below). This is the expectation at least but risk is increased as the market does remain volatile for the pair. I do expect that sellers will look to keep the price below 1.6805. If not it will certainly muddy the waters again.
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| Nov 18 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Next FXDD Online Training Thursday, Nov 19 2009 at 4pm REGISTER HERE |
| Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:18 AM PST Says the Fed may not raise rates until early 2012. This is leading to a rise in the EURUSD as the idea is the USD would be a carry currency for some time. |
| Housing Starts fall sharply. CPI a touch higher than expected. EURUSD falls on weaker news. Posted: 18 Nov 2009 05:33 AM PST The Housing Starts fell sharply to 529K vs expectation of a gain to 600K. Building Permits also fell sharply to 552K versus expectation of 580K. This is down from 575K last month. The CPI rose by 0.3% and +0.2% ex food and energy. This was +0.1% more than expectations for each.
The EURUSD is testing the 200 hour MA at the 1.4939 level on the news. There should be some pause here. A modest bounce to the 1.4951 level or below, will likely lead to some further downside moves with 1.4925 (100 bar ma on the 5 minute chart the next support). 1.4914 is the 100 hour MA. This is another support level today for the pair.
On the topside. in addition to the 1.4951 level the 1.4960 level should provide resistance. A move above likely means the market ignored the fundamental data with stocks moving higher and gold continuing it’s move higher as well. The Dow Futures are currently unchanged. Gold is up $7.0. Oil is up $0.70. |
| US CPI and Housing Starts/Building Permits at 8:30 AM Posted: 18 Nov 2009 05:24 AM PST CPI is expected to show a gain of 0.2% for the month of October. The Ex Food and Energy is expected to come in at +0.1%. The YoY inflation is expected to show a decline of -0.3% versus -1.3% last month. The large declines from last year this time are falling out of the calculation and help bring the YoY inflation back in line with a 2%-3% target over the next few months. The Ex Food and Energy YoY is expected to rise to +1.6% from +1.5%. This is more steady and should show a small increase over the next few months.
The Housing Starts are expected to show a gain to 600 K from 590 K on an annualized basis. Building Permits are expected to rise tp 580 k from 575k (revised) last month. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.18.2009 Posted: 18 Nov 2009 05:05 AM PST
The USD and JPY fell overnight as stocks in Europe rose, and the markets await data on US Housing Starts this morning. Comments from Fed President Pianalto that the recovery will be “gradual and bumpy” did not help the greenback. Keeping interest rates low for any extended period will weigh on the dollar. Equities in Asia were lower, and European equities are higher. US Futures are also higher at this time. Commodities rose, as the global recovery has spurred demand for raw materials. Oil:$79.91 Gold;$1146.20 Today’s Data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| EURUSD back and forth. Is today a “forth” day or a “back” day? Posted: 18 Nov 2009 05:01 AM PST
The EURUSD reversed the decline from yesterday today - continuing the back and forth moves of late that have seen the pair move up and down and up and down. The floor seems to be established at the 1.4812 area (yesterdays low was 1.4807 and gave the dip buyers the confidence to buy) and the topside has a ceiling at the 1.5019 level. The move up today has not approached the ceiling (yet at least) but has nevertheless trended higher for most of the day. From a technical perspective, the pair wandered sideways in the Far East session following along the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart (blue and green lines in the chart above). The two averages converged at the 1.4870 level. Not far after that, the market used the averages as support and started the march to the upside. There was a test during early London session of the 100 bar moving average. This held and gave the market another reason to explore the upside further. The move has stalled at the 1.4971 level. This was a ceiling level from yesterday (started the move down) and was near the close from Monday’s trade (1.4969). Look for profit takers/sellers against this level. A move above would target the 1.5000 level and above that the 1.5019 area.
On the downside, watch 1.4937 (200 hour MA - grren line in the hourly chart above) and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the 5 minute chart) at the 1.4922 level currently and moving higher. These levels should attract the buyers. A move below would target the 1.4915 level which is where the 100 hour MA is currently located (blue line in the hourly chart above). |
| BOE Barker on the newswires. EURGBP rises today. GBPUSD mixed Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:16 AM PST Comments that the quantitative easing has helped sustain confidence in the economy and has increased asset prices. He sees the 4th quarter growth is soundly based. However, he did warn that employment growth is some way off and that QE has not flowed through to the smaller businesses. He does not see a rate rise soon. The BOE today showed in thier minutes today they had a majority opinion for the 25 billion increase in QE easing (50 billion expected). However, the vote was split 3 ways with 1 member wanted to increase by 40 billion pounds and one member wanting no change for fear of asset inflation. This has pressured the pound mainly against the EURO. The GBPUSD is mixed in volatile up and down trading.
The EURGBP bounced off the 100 day MA at the 0.8839 level (low was 0.8836) and is now up moving toward a test of the 100 hour MA at the 0.8921 level. There should be some sellers against this level but a break through, should lead to further buying in the pair.
On the downside, look for support at the 0.8878. This is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the low yesterday. Below that is the 100 bar moving average (5 minute chart below, blue line) at the 0.8871 level currently.
The GBPUSD has been volatile and choppy as it continues to consolidate. On the 5 minute chart the price has been moving above and below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages which have converged with the price and are going sideways. This normally leads to a move away from the moving averages. The two moving averages come in at the 1.6807 area. Watch for a break in the NY session. On the downside watch a move below the 1.6797 level. Look for momentum on a break to signal more pressure. ON the topside, look for momentum above the 1.6831 level.
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| BoE minutes send sterling lower Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:50 AM PST Members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee split three ways over the size of the central bank’s money-creating, asset-purchase plan earlier this month, according to minutes of the Nov. 4-5 meeting released at 4:30 EST. Seven members of the MPC, including BOE Governor Mervyn King, voted in favor of the plan to boost the size of the program by 25 billion pounds to a total of 200 billion pounds. David Miles dissented in favor of a larger rise of 40 billion pounds, while Spencer Dale preferred to leave the program unchanged at 175 billion pounds, the minutes showed. Gbp/Usd tumbled 50 pips to 1.6770 and Eur/Gbp traded up to .8907, up about 30 points. Currently Gbp/Usd has almost come all the way back trading at 1.6810 and Eur/Gbp at .8890. |
| Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:21 AM PST Eurozone current account -5.4B, weaker than the 0.6B surplus and prior reading of 0.6B. Eur/usd has not felt much effect from this release. The pair trades just off its high at 1.4925. |
| Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:58 PM PST
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| Cable Retesting 50% Retracement Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:53 PM PST The GBP/USD pair is once again trading on the 50% retracement of the entire move lower from the summer of 2008. On the chart below we see the pair has been at this level during the summer and again this fall, however the price action has pushed the pair lower all three times. The higher than expected inflation readings (higher CPI) out of the UK last night certainly helped the pound initially, but once again the pair has pulled back.
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| Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:34 PM PST The Aussie Wage Cost Index came in as expected to no market reaction, the release was as follows: Wage Cost Index (QoQ) - Survey:.7% Actual:0.7% Prior:0.8% Wage Cost Index (YoY) - Survey:3.6% Actual:3.6% Prior:3.8% |
| Australian Q3 Westpac Leading Index Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:23 PM PST The 3rd quarter Aussie Westpac Leading Index came in slightly lower than the prior reading at 0.09% vs. the prior reading of 1.1% (revised higher to 1.3%.) The AUD and other commodity and risk pairs gained a light bid on the release. |
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