Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- New Home Sales rise stronger than expected
- Univ of Michigan Final estimate rises to 67.4
- Nov 25 2009 Forex Market Update
- Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training Register Here
- USDCHF trades below parity but rebounds as profit takers enter.
- Durable Goods weaker, Income up more than spending,Initial Claims fall
- USDJPY moving lower. Yen crosses get hit as well.
- Nov 24 2009 RE-BROADCAST of FXDD Online Training
- Dollar tumbles (EURUSD rises) overnight as Gold rises, Fed comment hangover, and other news weighs
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.25.2009
- US Durable Goods Orders, Personal income/spending, Initial Claims, etc due out this morning
- Bundesbank’s Kotz on the wires…
- UK Revised GDP (q/q)
- Italian Retail Sales
- GfK German Consumer Climate
| New Home Sales rise stronger than expected Posted: 25 Nov 2009 07:03 AM PST
The the New Home Sales rose to a 430K annualized pace. This like the existing home sales seems which was also up strongly. This may have been helped by the uncertainty from the 1st time home buyers incentive which was scheduled to expire in November. It was subsequently extended by the Obama administration. The month supply fell to 6.7 months from 7.4 months. This is down sharply from the 9.5 month supply from May. This suggests the supply is coming back in line as builders get rid of inventory. It has come at a cost, however, as the median sales price has moved down from over $260,000 in March 2007 to the current level at around $212,000 |
| Univ of Michigan Final estimate rises to 67.4 Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:56 AM PST
The estimate was 67. This is up from 66. The EURUSD has rebounded a bit off the better than expected data - although the upward momentum for the series has seemed to have stalled. |
| Nov 25 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST |
| Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training Register Here Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:29 AM PST |
| USDCHF trades below parity but rebounds as profit takers enter. Posted: 25 Nov 2009 05:59 AM PST The USDCHF has moved to parity versus the US$ on the back of the lower dollar (LOW reached the 0.9993). The USDCHF has not been this low since April 2008. SNBs Roth comments were a little more positive yesterday which has helped the CHF. We warned about this yesterday in our comments and indeed the market obliged with a move to the downside (CLICK HERE FOR THE POST). The market may now be testing the Swiss National Banks patience, however, the EURCHF remains near 1.5100 which is likely to be their main concern. As a result, they may be more tolerant of the decline against the US$ and not look to intervene.
With the price back above the 1.000 level now at the 1.0005 level, a new break will be needed to push the price down further for the pair obviously. Resistance comes in at the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0036 currently and the 1.0045 which is the 38.2% of the move down from yesterdays NY high to the low today. Look for sellers against these levels. |
| Durable Goods weaker, Income up more than spending,Initial Claims fall Posted: 25 Nov 2009 05:36 AM PST The Durable Goods orders were worse than expectations at -0.6% for the headline and -1.3% for ex trans. The prior month was revised higher to 2.0% from 1.4% but overall the data was weak post the cash for clunker program. The Initial Claims fell more than expected to 466K . This was the lowest level since September 2008. This is better news for the labor market. The Continuing Claims also fell 5.423 million, a decline of 190,000. This is the 10th straight weekly decline and also suggests an improving employment picture.
The USDJPY rose off the data rising to to 87.67. The USDJPY has additional resistance at the 87.83 level, the 100 hour MA at the 87.96 level currently and falling, and of course the 88.00 level. On the downside, the low at 87.38 and the 87.11/13 level should now provide support. The better Initial Claims are countering the weaker Durable Goods and it seems and traders are covering some shorts. Some pressure is off the dollar for the time being - at least versus the USDJPY. However, the upside levels still need to be breached to confirm the bottom. |
| USDJPY moving lower. Yen crosses get hit as well. Posted: 25 Nov 2009 05:33 AM PST
The USDJPY continued its move lower and broke through the 88.00 level. The price tracked lower in early trade, consolidated, tested the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, and chose the downside. The price was aided by comments out of Japan from the former lead foreign exchange advisor, Eisuke Sakakibara who said the USDJPY could fall to a level of 85.00. The 88.00 level provided little in the way of support and the move to the downside continued. The price has just reached a new low of 87.38.
There is good support down at the 8711/13 level where lows from Dec 18 and Jan 21 2009 are found. |
| Nov 24 2009 RE-BROADCAST of FXDD Online Training Posted: 25 Nov 2009 05:13 AM PST |
| Dollar tumbles (EURUSD rises) overnight as Gold rises, Fed comment hangover, and other news weighs Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:56 AM PST The Feds comment in the meeting minutes about the dollars orderly decline started to gnaw at traders bearish bias. This couple with some news out of China that they were reaccessing their forex policy and stimulus measures, that Russia was looking to move funds into the Canadian dollar, that Eisuke Sakakibar, formally Japan’s lead foreign exchange official, was cited as saying in a CNBC interview that the US dollar may fall against the Yen to perhaps the 85 level and that there was additional reports of interest from global nations to purchase gold from the IMF. All of which has led to an assault on the US dollar.
The EURUSD started the day toeing the 100 bar MA line on the 5 minute chart and tracked higher, using the moving average line as support before breaking away from the line (blue line in the chart above) to the upside. Along the way the price broke through resistance at 1.5000, the 1.5017-20 area, and the recent high of 1.5047 and the 2009 high of 1.5062 on its way to the high of 1.5095. The 1.5062 is now support for the pair. The upside does not have much in the way of resistance going back to 2008 levels. There are some lows at the 1.5140-45 level from Feb/Mar 2008, before the market started another leg to the upside that culminated in the EURUSD reaching its all time high price of 1.6019. The chart below shows that period where the market last moved above the 1.5000 level from Feb to August 2008. The bias is up. The gains may consolidate,however, until the old high of 1.5062 is breached on the downside, the upside is still favored for the pair, but look for buyer on dips. It is the day before Thanksgiving but with the dollar under assault, that is not the focus (at least until this afternoon). Also although the US is off tomorrow, the rest of the world does work and the damage to the dollar is coming on the heals of action overseas not here. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.25.2009 Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:49 AM PST
The USD weakened again, as investors show concern for the Feds lack of concern over the decline of the greenback. World equity markets rose, and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening on Wall Street this morning. Oil:$76.60 Gold:$1179.70 Today’s Data: Durable Goods exp: .5% prior: 1.0% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| US Durable Goods Orders, Personal income/spending, Initial Claims, etc due out this morning Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:12 AM PST Well, the US market won’t be going anywhere early this morning as a full calendar of economic releases are on tap. Below is a quick rundown: Durable Goods Orders: Exp +0.5%, Ex Trans +0.7%. Last month +1.4% and 1.2% respectively. The estimate is for a gain of 0.5% and +0.7% for ex Transportation. Four of the last 6 months have showed gains. Durable Goods will tend to get a boost as sales of homes increase. There has been a resurgence of existing home sales which have helped this sector.
Personal Income and Personal Spending: Personal Income is expected to rise by 0.1% vs 0.0% last month. Personal Spending is expected to rise by 0.5% vs -0.5% decline last month.
Also released with the data is the savings rate. Last month the savings reate rose to 3.3%. However, it has been moving in a volatile fashion over the most of 2009. Nevertheless, what you earn you can spend. This month the expectation is people will be spending more than they earned. This should decrease the savings rate. Nevertheless consumption account for 2/3 of US GDP so the trend of spending is important (but will it last?).
Initial Claims and Continuing Claims: The weekly initial claims data comes out a day early due to the holiday tomorrow in the US. The expectation is for a slight fall to 500 k from 505K last week. The Cont. Claims are expected to continue its fall to 5565K from 5611 K last week. This measure has fallen for 9 straight weeks from 6160 to the current level of 5611.
PCE Core and PCE Deflator for October is also due at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for the MoM Core measure to show a gain of 0.1% vs 0.1% last month. The YoY is expected to rise to 1.4% from 1.3%. The PCE Deflator is expected to show a gain of 0.1% vs a decline of -0.5% last month. The Core PCE is the change in price in goods and services ex food and energy.
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| Bundesbank’s Kotz on the wires… Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:09 AM PST Bundesbank’s Kotz has made the following comments this:
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| Posted: 25 Nov 2009 02:16 AM PST Revisions for UK third quarter GDP came in as expected. The GBP, which has been on a steady climb against the USD during the session, went offered on the release. The details are as follows:
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| Posted: 25 Nov 2009 01:02 AM PST September retail sales in Italy came in worse than expected monthly and better than expected year over year; the market showed a limited reaction to the data. The details are as follows:
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| Posted: 24 Nov 2009 11:07 PM PST The GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for December came in at 3.7; worse than its forecast and prior release of 4.0. Upon this release the EUR popped above the 1.5000 handle pushing the high of the session to 1.5005 and has since settled back down to 1.4997. |
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