Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• AUDUSD tests support at 0.9150. Key trendlines support looms below at 0.9095 area.
• Nov 19 2009 Forex Market Update
• $EURUSD tests 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart
• Bobbys Corner-Opem Market-Nov.19.2009
• $EURJPY falls sharply after failing at 100 day MA
• FXDD Online Training Thursday Nov 19 2009 4pm
• $USDJPY moves lower overnight and tests the lows for the week at 88.72/73 level.
• GBPUSD rachets down in overnight trading
• US Initial Claims due at 8:30 AM. Leading Indicators due at 10:00 with Philly Fed index
• UK Economic Data
• Swiss Trade Balance
• 11-19 Economic Calendar
• Aussie Weekly Wages/ Foreign Exchange Transactions
• November 18th 2009 Evening Forex Report from FXDD
• Talk of an announcement out of Brazil that would restrict capital flows into Brazil

AUDUSD tests support at 0.9150. Key trendlines support looms below at 0.9095 area. Posted: 19 Nov 2009 06:51 AM PST The 0.9150 level is the midpoint of the last move higher in the AUDUSD that saw the price move up from the low on November 2nd to the high reached on November 16th.  The low for the day has just dipped below the level but has rebounded.  Look for buyers against the level with stops on a move back below. Next key support comes in at the 0.9095 area where a daily trendline going back to March is found. The AUDUSD has tested the line on 4 separate occasions.  On the topside, if the price can stay below the 0.9177 level this would be bearish for the pair. The 0.9177 level corresponds with the gap left from the November 6th close and the November 9th low.  That was finally filled today and will be eyed as resistance now that the price has moved below.

Nov 19 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 19 Nov 2009 06:40 AM PST New Video Now Pending

$EURUSD tests 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart Posted: 19 Nov 2009 05:52 AM PST The EURUSD is testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4880 level.  A move above should lead to further upside corrective pressure with upside target at 1.4899 and then the 200 bar MA at the 1.4908 (and moving lower).  If the price can not find the momentum to push above the downside trend should continue.  The price found support today at the 1.4846 level which is the “remembered” gap from November 6th -9th.

Bobbys Corner-Opem Market-Nov.19.2009 Posted: 19 Nov 2009 05:35 AM PST Good Morning: The USD and JPY strengthened overnight, as investors move away from higher-yielding assets. Worldwide equity markets lower, and that also helped the USD and JPY to rise.  Speculation is that investors trimmed short positions after the USD was not able to fall beyond the 1.50 level vs the EURO.  The 1.50 level will add pressure to the marketplace-as this is a major psycological level for investors. Worlwide equity markets dropped-and US Futures are lower at this time.  Commodities are also lower. Oil:$79.64                              Gold:$1136.20 Today’s data: Jobless Claims:                  exp: 504K      prior; 502K      act: 505K Lead Ind:                              exp: .4%          prior: 1.0% Philly Fed:                            exp: 12.0        prior: 11.5 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$EURJPY falls sharply after failing at 100 day MA Posted: 19 Nov 2009 05:28 AM PST We have been looking at the EURJPY over the last few days as the price has been hanging aroung the 100 day MA. Yesterday, the pair corrected higher on strong EURO demand (EURUSD and EURGBP both rose).  The price move higher took the pair back to the 100 day MA and above but the topside was stopped at another key level we watch - the 200 hour MA (see hourly chart below).  Today, the price has trended down and is now testing the 200 day MA at the 132.03 level.  The low extended to 131.81 but the price has moved back up.  Look for dip buyers against the level with stops on moves probably below the 131.81 level (it may be down below the lows). However be careful as the bias is to the downside.  A corrective move should find resistance at the 132.42 level today. Overall, the price move away from the 100 day MA is what we were anticipating.  The price has traded above and below the 100 day moving average for 14 of 17 days.  Usually, the price gets tired hanging around a key moving average for so long.  As a result, with the price now below the 100 day MA and testing the 200 day moving average I would expect to see sellers on rallies.

FXDD Online Training Thursday Nov 19 2009 4pm Posted: 19 Nov 2009 05:20 AM PST FXDD ONLINE TRAINING CLASS TODAY AT 4PM New York Time. ——————————————————————- Register for today’s training class HERE ——————————————————————-

$USDJPY moves lower overnight and tests the lows for the week at 88.72/73 level. Posted: 19 Nov 2009 05:15 AM PST The USDJPY used the 100 hour MA as resistance overnight and that was enough to start the move back to the downside in the USDJPY.   The key levels at 89.28 and 89.17 were broken along the way.  The price decline has stalled at a low of 88.78.  The low from this week has been 88.73 and 88.72.  Support is being found against these levels.  A break of these levels will next target the 88.35/40 level and then 88.00, the low for 2009.   Looking at the 5 minute chart the price has used the 100 bar moving average as resistance. That moving average currently comes in at the 88.99 level (and moving lower) and this level should see sellers against it (dip buyers taking profits).  A move above the MA will likely look toward the 200 bar MA at the 89.13 level currently (and moving lower)

GBPUSD rachets down in overnight trading Posted: 19 Nov 2009 04:29 AM PST The GBPUSD stepped down overnight.  The Retail Sales rose by 0.4% for the month versus +0.5% expectations. However, the revision from prior month rose to 3.4% from 2.9%.  The money supply also rose by a greater than expected +1.8%, and the Public Sector Net Borrowing which measures the difference between money coming in and money going out showed the largest deficit since 1993 as tax revenues are down and welfare costs surged.   This may have led to the pressure on the GBP we are seeing this morning. From a technical basis, the price dipped back below the 100 hour and 200 hour moving average today which helped accelerate the decline. There was a corrective period in the early London session which saw the price correct above the 200 hour MA, but the move could not gain any upside momentum and the downside was resumed. Looking at the daily chart the fall below the 100 hour MA at the 1.6742 level (blue line in the hourly chart above),  corresponded with a fall below the June 30th high and the September 11th high of 1.6743 and 1.6741 level respectively.  This combination got the ball rolling to the downside, and if a trader was astute to these levels, a nice trend trade could have been established.  The price has stalled against the low 1.6600 (low reached 1.6615).  Looking back over the last 4-5 months, the price probed above the 1.6600 level on a number of occasions.  There have been three with extended the range more than the others (which were mostly one day spurts (see daily chart). This last move higher has had 11 days where the price has traded above the 1.6600 level.  The longest previous time above since June has been 7 days.  As a result, we are seeing profit taking buyers against the level this morning and will likely continue to see support buying.  If the level can break, however, we should see further downside pressure. On the 5 minute chart the price has continued to track down using the 100 and 200 bar MA as the resistance levels.   With a good support at the low 1.6600 area, the price has some upside resistance at the 1.6659 level. The last time the price was at this level, the market had support/resistance at the level before moving higher (see chart below).  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the 5 minute chart above)  is also likely to provide upside resistance for the pair. That level comes in at the 1.6677 level.   Look for sellers against these  levels this morning.

US Initial Claims due at 8:30 AM. Leading Indicators due at 10:00 with Philly Fed index Posted: 19 Nov 2009 04:00 AM PST The US Initial Claims are expected to show a small rise to 504K from 502 K. Although trending down since the peak, a half a milllion people in the US are losing their jobs each week which is still a heavy burden.  Continuing Claims are also falling but that may be partly due to people losing thier benefits.  The claims data is due at 8:30 AM Out at 10AM will be the Leading Indicators and the regional Philadelphia Fed Index for the month of November.  The Leading Indicators is an index derived of 10 economic indicators including average workweek, jobless claims, consumer goods orders, non defense capital goods orders, building permits, stock prices, interest rate spreads, M2, consumer expectations and pace of deliveries.  Stock prices, interest rate spreads, consumer expectations and initial claims change led the gains last month. The index has risen for 5 straight months. This month the expectation is for another gain of 0.4%.  Also out at 10 AM is another regional manufacturing index.  The Philadelphia Fed Index will be released and the expectation for it is for a slight gain to 12.2 from 11.5.  This would be the 4th month in a row with the index above the 0.0 line which is indicative of expansion in manufacturing in the region.  Last week the Empire Manufacturing Index was released which gauges manufacturing activity in the NY region and it declined to 23.51 from 34.57.  This was worse than expectations.

UK Economic Data Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:40 AM PST UK Retail Sales m/m came in at 0.4%, slightly weaker than the 0.5% expected. Y/Y came in at 3.4%, stronger than the 2.9% expected. M4 Money Supply m/m came in at 1.8%, stronger than the 1.0% expected. Y/Y came in at 11.0%, stronger than the 9.9% expected. Strong numbers for Gbp. There was some buying of the currency just prior to release. currently Gbp/Usd is trading at 1.6695, Eur/Gbp down to .8911. At the moment buying of the Gbp seems to be continuing.

Swiss Trade Balance Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:22 PM PST Swiis Trade Balance came in at a 2.46B surplus, stronger than the 2.15B foorecasted and the 1.91B prior reading. Realtively no change in Usd/Chf or Eur/Chf as they trade at 1.0126 and 1.5112 respectively.

11-19 Economic Calendar Posted: 18 Nov 2009 08:49 PM PST

Aussie Weekly Wages/ Foreign Exchange Transactions Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:37 PM PST Australia’s Average Weekly Wages for August and Foreign Exchange Transactions for October came in worse than forecasted; the details are as follows. RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions - Actual: 307M   Prior: 803M Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) - Actual: 0.9%   Prior: 1.2% Average Weekly Wages (YoY) - Actual: 5.2%   Prior: 6.1% The AUD and the rest of the market showed no reaction to this release.

November 18th 2009 Evening Forex Report from FXDD Posted: 18 Nov 2009 02:32 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Talk of an announcement out of Brazil that would restrict capital flows into Brazil Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:08 PM PST There is talk in the market about an announcement forthcoming out of  Brazil regarding a restriction on capital flows into Brazil.  This could have a negative effect on other carry type trades and lead to a move back into the US dollar in general.   The USD is rallying against the Brazilian Real on the talk.  Be aware.

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