Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY pushing against the 100 hour MA at 89.11
- EURUSD breaks back higher toward resistance
- Nov 20 2009 Forex Market Update
- Belgium Consumer Confidence rises to -10.0 from -12.0
- $USDCHF moves higher today. Bounces off the 100 hour MA
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.20.2009
- EURSUD bounces off the 1.4801 level. Option play at 1.4800 may keep the price supported.
- GBPUSD moves lower again. The 100 day MA at 1.6392 starts to come into focus.
- And the EURUSD moves back down
- German Producer Price Index
- 11-20 Economic Calendar
- Bank of Japan Rate Decision
- November 19th 2009 Forex Evening Report is available for viewing
- ECB Bini Smaghi is also speaking
| USDJPY pushing against the 100 hour MA at 89.11 Posted: 20 Nov 2009 07:05 AM PST
The 100 hour MA has held the topside this week and the pair is back up testing the level. The MA comes in at the 89.11 level currently. The high reached 89.12. A break above should lead to further gains, but so far, the market is using the level as a level to sell against. Until the price is broken the bias remains down for the pair. The USDJPY has been relatively contained over the last week or so. The range for the week has extended from a high on Monday at 89.69 to the low for the week on Thursday at 88.63. The narrow range begs for a move up or down away from the current range. So be aware. The low for 2009 is 88.00. A move above the 100 hour MA could pave the way for a move back up toward the 90.04 area.
|
| EURUSD breaks back higher toward resistance Posted: 20 Nov 2009 06:52 AM PST
There is old trendline resistance at the 1.4864 level. The midpoint of the move down comes in at 1.4867. Perhaps this is enough to see some profit taking selling with stops above. Support now at 1.4845 for the intraday traders. |
| Nov 20 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 20 Nov 2009 06:30 AM PST |
| Belgium Consumer Confidence rises to -10.0 from -12.0 Posted: 20 Nov 2009 06:02 AM PST This is the highest since September 2008 and with a quiet day with news and events it is lifting the EURUSD higher. |
| $USDCHF moves higher today. Bounces off the 100 hour MA Posted: 20 Nov 2009 05:18 AM PST
The USDCHF, like the EURUSD, has had an up and down week. The price in early trade tested the 100 hour MA twice before moving higher. The SNBs Roth made some comments with regard to inflation, stating that the Inflation Outlook will guide policy decisions. With the currency strong, the central bank has been more interested in the risk of lower imported inflation. As a result, the central bank has been more interested in selling the Swiss Franc when it starts to get out of line (USDCHF lower).
From a technical basis, the move higher today looks to have made a move through the channel resistance line which has bent but not broken this week. The price has moved above this line over the last 3 trading days, but each day, the price retreated back down. The move higher today seems to have finally broken the back of the resistance level. The upside bias is in tact. I would look for support today at the 1.0184 to 1.0195 level. This corresponds with the high from yesterday and the 38.2% of the days range today.
On the topside the 1.0278/86 level is the next target area of resistance for the pair.
|
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.20.2009 Posted: 20 Nov 2009 05:05 AM PST
Comments by ECB President Trichet moved the Euro lower against the USD and JPY. He stated that “it’s too early to declare the crisis over”. The JPY was the main beneficiary of his comments as investors increased their demand for the JPY as a refuge. World wide equity markets fell, and US futures are lower after Trichet’s comments, yesterday’s NY sell off, and Dell Inc. announced lower than expected earnings. Oil:$76.38 Gold:$1134.20 No major data today. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| EURSUD bounces off the 1.4801 level. Option play at 1.4800 may keep the price supported. Posted: 20 Nov 2009 04:56 AM PST The EURUSD pushed to a low of 1.4801. There is some talk in the market of a option at 1.4800 which may be defended today. When an option price is in play, a battle can ensue to defend the option kicking in. Sellers of put options (granting a buyer the option to sell at 1.4800) at the 1.4800 level will have the option expire worthless if the price does not close below the 1.4800 level. Buyers of that put has the incentive to have the price move through that level and go in the money. Look for buyers on dips, with the potential for hedge selling on a momentum move through the level as option sellers may be forced to hedge their exposure. There is also talk of a option strategy whereby if the price touches the strike price level at any time prior to expiration, the option premium is paid to the buyer. If it does not, the seller receives the full premium. So the stakes are high on that bet for those involved. |
| GBPUSD moves lower again. The 100 day MA at 1.6392 starts to come into focus. Posted: 20 Nov 2009 04:15 AM PST
The GBPUSD initially consolidated in early trading today (Far East trading) and then started another move to the downside using the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart as a level to lean against just before the push through the important 1.6600 level. Other clues from the chart included the convergence of the 100 and 200 bar MA with the price, the slope of the moving averages turning over, and the final test of each before the move through 1.6600. Once that level was broken, however, the march down has been steady and persistent.
The price just reached a new 12 day low (last reached on November 4th) at the 1.6459. The fall starts to bring back into focus the 100 day moving average which comes in at the 1.6391 level today. Earlier in the month on November 3rd, the market got a boost off this moving average (broke 1.6362) that ended at a high of 1.6842 four days later. I would expect to see buyers against the level on the first test.
Until then, however, the support at 1.6454 and the 1.6465 levels (see chart above) were a high and then a low before the surge higher on November 4th. A break of that level really does not have much support until that 100 day MA level. However, I would look for early buyers against the level to cushion the price in that area (between 1.6391 and 1.6454). |
| And the EURUSD moves back down Posted: 20 Nov 2009 04:05 AM PST Up on Monday, down on Tuesday, up on Wednesday, down and up on Thursday, down on Friday. The EURUSD has seen its share of back and forth uncertainty. Lower stocks this morning are pressuring the pair. Oil is down 0.55 cents. Spot gold is down $1.50 or so. From a technical perspective, the EURUSD found support yesterday at the 1.4845 area (low was 1.4843). This level corresponded with the gap low from Friday November 6th low (gapped higher on November 9th). The price is now back approaching this level. With no economic data due out today, I would expect early buyers on the value. A break next targets the 1.4807 area which is the low for the week. Watch the 1.4882 level on the topside as resistance. This was the first low level reached today, was the corrective high after breaking through in London and also was a level of interest in yesterdays market (see chart below).
|
| Posted: 19 Nov 2009 11:04 PM PST German PPI m/m came in at 0.0%, weaker than the 0.1% expected. Y/Y came in at -7.6%, weaker than the -7.5% expected. Slightly negative numbers had little effect on market as selling occured 15 minutes prior to release. Eur/Usd looked as it was on verge of breaking above 1.4935, its 200 hour M/A, and instead sold off to 1.4910. This all occured before release of negative PPI figures. Currently the pair trades at 1.4922. |
| Posted: 19 Nov 2009 09:23 PM PST
|
| Posted: 19 Nov 2009 07:53 PM PST The BOJ released there rate decision earlier than expected, but as expected at an unchanged .10%. The market rebounded off its session lows as it trades in a tight range throughout the session. The BOJ’s accompanying comments were as follows:
|
| November 19th 2009 Forex Evening Report is available for viewing Posted: 19 Nov 2009 02:36 PM PST |
| ECB Bini Smaghi is also speaking Posted: 19 Nov 2009 10:57 AM PST He comments that the pace of expansion is likely to be gradual and uneven. He sees the effects of the fiscal stimulus fading and that the inventory correction cycle won’t last either. Commodity price climb could slow recovery but the low rates could fuel unwarranted speculation. He commented that some banks are still reliant on the ECB liquidity and as a result the exit from measures could be damanging at this point. Finally, he said that all the liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent. The EURUSD is back up testing the resistance at the 1.4916 level. A break moves toward the 100 hour MA at the 1.4925 level currently. |
Good Morning:
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment