Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD testing support levels at 1.5933 and 1.5957.
• EURUSD watching the corrective resistance at 1.4618 and supprort at 1.4584/88
• CHicago PMI comes in at 46.1. Weaker than expected.
• EURCHF tests support after break higher
• Sept 30 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Report on CHF
• GBPUSD moves lower on dollar buying. Upside resistance holds the top.
• $EURCHF and $USDCHF spikes on talk of SNB intervention
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.30.2009
• FXDD Online Training TODAY Wed Sept 30, 09 4pm
• ADP falls -254K for the month of September
• $EURUSD dips in early NY trade. Tests moving average support at 1.4538 level.
• Mortgage Applications fall 2.8% in month. Other US data due out this NY Morning
• Gbp/Usd touches 1.6100
• Swiss KOF
• Eurozone CPI Estimate

GBPUSD testing support levels at 1.5933 and 1.5957. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 07:07 AM PDT The GBPUSD is moving through the 100 hour MA support at the 1.5957 level and has further channel trendline support down below at the 1.5933 level. The close from yesterday was 1.5960 level.  If the price can not bounce back above these levels soon, look for another leg to the downside.

EURUSD watching the corrective resistance at 1.4618 and supprort at 1.4584/88 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:54 AM PDT The EURUSD  has corrected off the lows following the volatility on the SNB intervention. The price is back up testing the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The level comes in at the 1.4618  level. Watch this level as upside resistance. On the downside, the low this NY morning was 1.4584. The close yesterday was 1.4588.  Look for support against each with stops on a move below.

CHicago PMI comes in at 46.1. Weaker than expected. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:47 AM PDT Much weaker than expected (52 expected) Prices paid          51.3  vs 50.0 Production           47.2 vs  52.9 New orders           46.3  vs 52.5 Order backlogs       36.7  vs 45.8 Inventories          38.9  vs27.5 Employment           38.8   vs 38.7 Supplier deliveries  49.3  vs 54.6 This is helping to depresse the EURUSD initially as a flight to quality bid is the Pavlovian reaction.

EURCHF tests support after break higher Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:36 AM PDT The 1.5171 to 1,.5176 level is support in the EURCHF>  The 1.5171 is the 100 day MA support. The 1.5176 is the 38.2% retracement of the move higher today.  On the topside, the 1.5230 level was the high from September 17th.  The high reached 1.5239.  I would expect sellers on a break higher against the 1.5300 level.  A break above should not be ignored.

Sept 30 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Report on CHF Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:26 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Reported SNB intervention led to some early fireworks today and dollar buying This reversed dollar selling overnight that saw the EURUSD and GBPUSD test topside resistance level. The volatile conditions has defined some key levels to watch this morning.

GBPUSD moves lower on dollar buying. Upside resistance holds the top. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:52 AM PDT The GBPUSD has gotten caught up in the dollar buying on the back of SNB buying and better GDP. The pair has moved below the trendline support now at the 1.6051 level.  Watch this level to provide resistance now. The earlier successful corrective test of the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement at the 1.6118 to 1.6135 level (high reached 1.6125) puts the bears back in charge.  The price also stayed below the neckline trendline from the head and shoulder formation off the daily report at the 1.6165 area which is also bearish for the pair. On the downside, look for support against the 100 hour  MA at the 1.5962 level.  The bottom trendline in the chart below also should provide some support at the 1.5927.  Resistance comes in at the 1.6035 and 1.6051 level.  If these levels can hold corrective moves, look for a wander back down for the pair.

$EURCHF and $USDCHF spikes on talk of SNB intervention Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT The EURCHF is spiking on the back of “talk” of SNB intervention.  The pair is back above the 200 hour MA at the 1.5125 level.  It has also moved above the 100 day MA at the 1.5171 level. Watch this level for support. Note the SNB officials have said they would be happy with a range of 1.50 to 1.53 in the EURCHF.   Perhaps the move below the 1.5200 level this morning was too close to the bottom of the range for the SNB (low reached 1.5075).  So although the upside is the risk, the upside might also be contained as the price moves closer to the 1.5300 level. The recent high came in at 1.5230. Look for support at the 100 day MA (1.5171).  The recent high in August reached 1.5230.  Look for sellers against this level at least initially.    The USDCHF has also risen back above 100 hour MA and trendline resistance. Both come in at 1.0318 level. Watch this level to provide  hold support going forward.   Onthe topside, the high yesterday came in at 1.0404 level.  A break of this level should lead to a test of the trendline from the channel at the 1.4033 level.  A break of this ultimately targets the 1.0507 level which is 38.2% retracement level of the move from the June 24th high to the recent lows.  A SNB spokeman has just come out and said, they do not talk about Swiss intervention. However, this is par for the course and should not suggest they are not in the market.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.30.2009 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD lost steam overnight as better than expected Australian Retail Sales (.9% vs .6%) moved the Aussie to a 13 month high.  Demand by Aussie consumers rose, as growth in the Australian economy which has been fueled by China’s demand for commodities, is making the yields in Australia the highest within the industrial countries. German employment data was better than expected, which is very positive for any EuroZone growth moving forward.  This data also helped push the Euro up and the USD lower. Worlwide equity markets are higher on this last day of the Q3.  US futures are also higher this morning.  Commodities in general are higher with metals leading the charge (Gold jumps over $1000/oz). Oil:$67.57                                      Gold:$1002.60 Today’s Data: ADP Employment Change:        exp: -200K         prior:-298K           act: -254K GDP- Q2:                                            exp: -1.2%           prior:-1% Pers Consumption:                       exp: -.9%              prior: -1% Chi Purchasing Mgr:                     exp: 52.0             prior: 50.0 NAPM Milwaukee:                         exp:                       prior: 56.0 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

FXDD Online Training TODAY Wed Sept 30, 09 4pm Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT FXDD’s next live online training with trainers Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell on trading in the Forex is today at 4pm. You’ll get great Forex training from two industry experts and you’ll have the opportunity to ask us questions about trading. Only register if you plan to attend. We want to make sure that there is room for everyone. Thanks Today Wednesday, September 30, 2009 Time: 4:00 pm, Eastern Daylight Time (New York, GMT-04:00) Session Number: 551 675 812 ——————————————————- To register for this training session Go to https://fxdd.webex.com/fxdd/k2/j.php?ED=111783792&UID=1023773432&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D&FM=1 ——————————————————-

ADP falls -254K for the month of September Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:17 AM PDT This is lower than expected at -200K. The NFP is expected to show a a fall of -180K on Friday.  The ADP has been overestimating the job declines over the last few months. The prior month was revised to -277K. This brings the number more in line with the NFP which showed a -216K number. The ADP does not include Government. This sector used to show a steady 20K rise. However, with the budget constraints on a state and local level, this sector is showing little growth.  The end result, is the number is in the ball park versus the estimate for NFP of -180K for Friday’s number.

$EURUSD dips in early NY trade. Tests moving average support at 1.4538 level. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:00 AM PDT The EURUSD is testing the 100 hour MA after breaking above the trendline and 100 hour MA in Tokyo and London trade this mornng.  Yesterday the EURUSD tested old trendline support at the 1.4540 level, dipping to a low of 1.4526 on a comment by Fed’s Fisher but rebounding after that .  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.4639 level.  There should be some support here.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also found at the 1.4633 level which also should provide some support. A break of the 1.4633 level should lead to a test the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above) on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4614 level.  This is also where the 61.8% of the days range is found.   On the topside, a break of the high for the day at the 1.4673 has next target resistance at the 1.4686 level where the 200 hour MA is found (green line in the hourly chart above). A break of this level confirms the upside bias and should lead to further gains. Keep the 1.4719 level in mind. This level was the December 2008 high price which also wa a ceiling area last week after breaking lower (see hourly chart above)

Mortgage Applications fall 2.8% in month. Other US data due out this NY Morning Posted: 30 Sep 2009 04:41 AM PDT Refinancings fell -0.8% Purchase Index fell -6.2% The Average Mortgage Rate fell to 4.94%.   4.61% was the lowest rate reached at the end of March The rate decline is encouraging and has to stay down to squeeze out more sales now that demand from new buyers has kicked in a bit - especially in the shorter end where new home owners are taking advantage of the stimulus plan and rebate for new homeowner program.  At 8:15 AM today the ADP Employment Change will be released for the month of September.  The expectation is for a -200K reading after a -298K fall last month.  The ADP report does not include government workers. Last month the fall of -298K overstated the job losses from the Non Farm Payroll as that measure showed a decline of -216K,  The Non Farm report for September is due for release on Friday and the is expected to decline by -180K as it continues its improvement.   The last two months have overstated the job losses by 82 and 84K.  The biggest difference was -158K in May when the ADP report estimated a decline of -461K vs -303K. Also at 8:30 the GDP for the revision to 2nd quarter will be released.  The estimate is for a -1.2% decline vs the original estimate of -1.0% with Personal Consumption showing a -1.0% decline.  Consumption which accounts for 70% of US GDP has been down for 3 of the last quarters. The 3rd quarter is more the focus now.  As a result, the market should not react strongly to this particular release this morning.  At 9:45 The Chicago PMI index is due.  The expectation is for another reading above 50 (52.0 Expected). This would be the highest level since September 2008. Finally at 10:00 AM the Milwaukee PMI is expected to come in. Last month the index rose to 56.0.  This was the highest reading since January 2008.  There is no estimate available.

Gbp/Usd touches 1.6100 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 02:41 AM PDT Upon establishing itself above 1.6033 (38.2 Fibo) Gbp/Usd strenghtened as cited earlier and traded up to 1.6100. If the pair is unable to remain above 1.6100 look for a pull back to the 1.6060-70 level. In the event it continues uptrend next resistance is at 1.6115 (50% Fibo) with stronger resistance at its 200 hour M/A of 1.6138.

Swiss KOF Posted: 30 Sep 2009 02:32 AM PDT Swiss KOF Economic Barometer came in at 0.85, stronger than the 0.33 expected. Strong number for CHF as it trades just off lows of session at 1.0285.

Eurozone CPI Estimate Posted: 30 Sep 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone CPI Estimate came in at -0.3%, weaker than the -0.2%. Eur/Usd trading close to high of session at 1.4633.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Consumer Confidence comes in weaker
• Feds Fisher comment sends dollar up
• EURUSD moves up to test our target at 1.4578.
• Sept 29 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDCHF rally finally takes hold. Price moves above 1.0368. Watch this level today.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 29.2009
• EURUSD remains depressed today. Tests key trendline support at the 1.4540 level.
• GBPUSD rises on better data today
• Russian Central Bank possibly to further diversify holdings
• Sterling soars on strong CBI Realized Sales
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence
• UK Economic Data
• Gyothen comments (Japan MoF)
• Usd/Jpy trying to gain foothold above 90.00
• Aud/Jpy above 100 hour M/A

US Consumer Confidence comes in weaker Posted: 29 Sep 2009 07:05 AM PDT The US Consumer Confidence was weaker than expected and this too is pressuring the currencies (leading to a rise in the US dollar). The expectation was for a gain of 57.0. The actual number came in at 53.1.  The EURUSD has moved below the key 1.4540 level to a low of 1.4526. There is support at the 1.4518 level which is the 50% of the move up form the September 4th low.   A break below would target the 1.4447 level which is the old high price from August.

Feds Fisher comment sends dollar up Posted: 29 Sep 2009 06:53 AM PDT Feds Fisher commented that the Feds reversal of policy could be equal  in speed as seen in its easing. Housing market is bottoming but still on life support.  The comment on the Fed reversal has spooked the dollar higher.  However, it is not anticipated that this reversal is imminent. Nevertheless, the EURUSD is back down testing the support at the 1.4540 level

EURUSD moves up to test our target at 1.4578. Posted: 29 Sep 2009 06:38 AM PDT The EURUSD had good support at the 1.4540 as per the prior comment (see Prior Post).  The ability to hold the level and move higher is positive for the EURUSD. The corrective move has moved above our first targe at 1.4557 and then to our second target level of 1.4578.  The high reached 1.4575 and has backed off a little.   The corrective move off the 1.4578 level came down to 1.4557 level (low was 1.4558).  Needless to say, the price is in between the support at 1.4558 and the resistance at 1.4578.  Look for the mkt to make the call. A break higher targets 1.4603.  A move lower, should test key support at 1.4540 again.

Sept 29 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 29 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The EURUSD moved lower. The GBPUSD moved higher. This helped pressure the EURGBP in the process. USDCHF also broke above topside resistance.

USDCHF rally finally takes hold. Price moves above 1.0368. Watch this level today. Posted: 29 Sep 2009 05:50 AM PDT The USDCHF finally made a somewhat valient effort to break to the upside. The price moved back above the 1.0368 level (Dec 2008 low price). The move used the 100 hour MA as a springboard for the move higher yesterday.  Both the 100 and 200 hour MA are moving up now and both have converged at the 1.0292 level. The price is at the highest level since September 15th.   The high on September 21st reached 1.0388.  The correction has upside resistance at the 1.0418/22  level which is the high price on September 14th. The 50% retracement of the move down from the September 4th high to the low comes in at the 1.0443 level. Longer term, the USDCHF move down from the June 24th high comes in at the 1.0507 level. This is the a longer term target for the pair now that the price has moved back above the 1.0368 level. On the downside, look for support at the 1.0368 level.  If the price can hold this level, there could be a further spring board effect for the pair.  A move below should find support at the 1.0358 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 29.2009 Posted: 29 Sep 2009 05:37 AM PDT Good Morning: I was away in Chicago last week and had some technical difficulties with Bobby’s Corner.  All seems to be back on track. The USD rose as evidence shows that global economies have yet to shed the worst of the global recession,  slowing demand for higher-yielding assets.  Also helping the greenback was the Russian central bank’s decision to lower interest rates, as concerns mount that their is more work needed to spur a recovery in Russia and around the globe. Additionally, comments from both Japan and Europe reiterated the importance of a strong dollar for the strength of  global economies. Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe is lower at this time, and US futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning after yesterday’s 124 pt increase. Oil:$66.29                                           Gold:$989.40 Today’s data: S&P/Case Schiller for July. Consumer Confidence:          exp: 57.0                  prior: 54.1 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD remains depressed today. Tests key trendline support at the 1.4540 level. Posted: 29 Sep 2009 05:14 AM PDT The EURUSD has remained depressed today - down on the day and reaching new move lows.  The move lower today pushed the price to a test of the old trendline at the 1.4540 level.  The low price reached 1.4536 and has bounced.  Look for continued buying against this level.  A break however, should lead to lower levels with the next target support at the 1.4447.  The was the old high from August 5th. A rebound off the support could has upside initial resistance at 1.4557.  A move above this level targets the 1.4578 level.

GBPUSD rises on better data today Posted: 29 Sep 2009 04:55 AM PDT The CBI Distributive Trade data came out  better than expected and this was enough to increase the level of the GBPUSD in London Trade.  Also helping the pair is a apparent denial that the BOE would lower the rate to negative rates on deposits. This also buoyed the pair and led to gains.  The GBPUSD pair has been depressed since falling through the neckline trendline from a head and shoulders formation at the 1.6165 area and in the process moved to a low of 1.5769 (yesterday). The low today reached 1.5824 before starting the rebound.  The price is well above the closing level from yesterday now at the 1.5880 level. The last 4 days have been down days, so this is a positive technical development for the pair.  The corrective move higher today and consolidative range yesterday, has also allowed the 100 hour MA catch up to the current price.  The 100 hour moving average nevertheless remains higher above at 1.6056,  However, it is declining at a clip of 4 pips per hour.  Before that level there is upside resistance at the 1.6035 level.  These two level will converge this morning and should the market continue to move higher, the market will have a decision to make - does it want to move above or is the correction enough.  What usually happens is the market uses the 100 hour MA as a profit taking level or level to initiate shorts.  Keep an eye on the level on rallies higher. On the downside, watch for support at the 1.5957 level. This was the high reached before the pair started moving lower today toward the days lows.   Additional support should come in at the 1.5924 level where the high from yesterday and the 38.2% retracement of the days range is found.   The 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.5912 level currently and rising.  A price above this MA gives a positive short term bias. Breaking below the neckline trendline in the GBPUSD last week should keep the pressure to the downside over the medium term. However, the market has the taste of a correction today (and is up today) so dip buying will likely be the course of action.

Russian Central Bank possibly to further diversify holdings Posted: 29 Sep 2009 03:39 AM PDT Russian Central bank could add Aud and Cad to its reserves. They will not be reducing share of US treasuries in reserves from existing 30%. This coming from the 1st deputy chairman.

Sterling soars on strong CBI Realized Sales Posted: 29 Sep 2009 03:08 AM PDT Sterling got a big lift of much better than expected CBI Realized Sales. It came in at+3, -15 was expected. Gbp/Usd rose of its low of 1.5824 to 1.5890 just prior to release of great sales figure and extended gains to 1.5935. Currently the pair is trading at 1.5925.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Posted: 29 Sep 2009 02:05 AM PDT Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -19, stronger than the -21 expected. Eurozone economic confidence came in at 82.8, slightly stronger than the 82.7 expected. Business climate indicator came in at -2.07, weaker than the -1.92 expected. Mixed results for Eurozone figures. Eur/Usd initially got hit about 10 pips tp 1.4580 and has since recovered to pre number levels (1.4590-95).

UK Economic Data Posted: 29 Sep 2009 01:38 AM PDT UK Current Account came in at -11.4B, weaker than the -7.7B expected, however prior reading of -8.5B was revised to -4.1B lessening the effect of weak current account figures. Mortgage approvals came in at 52,300, stronger than the 51,500 expected and prior reading of 50,100 was revised up to 52,400. Final GDP q/q came in as expected at -0.6%, y/y came in at -5.5%, weaker than the -5.4% expected. Overall  numbers are pretty much inline with expectations. Gbp/Usd trading at pre number levels 1.5865-70.

Gyothen comments (Japan MoF) Posted: 29 Sep 2009 01:04 AM PDT Japanese Minister of Finance Gyothen does not view Jpy rise as sharp and does not see big turbulance in current F/X price action. Japanese policy makers continue to back off statements made earlier in the week citing a stronger yen. Usd/Jpy slightly higher after commnets at 89.80.

Usd/Jpy trying to gain foothold above 90.00 Posted: 28 Sep 2009 10:48 PM PDT Usd/Jpy has been trading around 90.00for the last 5 hours. It seems the pair is having a hard time establishing itself above this tricky level. It will be interesting to see upon the European open if the pair can break above 90.00. If it does look for a run up to 90.29 which is the 61.8% Fibo using Sept. 24 high of 91.57 and Sept. 25th low of 88.22. If it fails and heads lower 89.50 should be level of support (38.2% Fibo).

Aud/Jpy above 100 hour M/A Posted: 28 Sep 2009 08:58 PM PDT Aud/Jpy is trading above its 100 hour M/A of  78.58 and just north of the 61.8% Fibo using Sept. 23rd high of 80.04 and Sept. 28th low of 76.49. If it can hold above the 61.8 Fibo (78.69) it should test the 200 hour M/A which lies at 79.01. It has been on a steady uptrend from the Sept. 28th lows. A break below its 100 hour M/A could see the pair correct back down to 78.00 level. At the moment the second scenario does not seem as likely. The market will tell the story. A break below its 100 hour M/A could see the pair correct back down to 78.00 level.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF tests 200 hour MA and trendline support at the 1.0290 to 1.0297 levels
• Sept 25 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD continues the fall but rebounds of double bottom today.
• US Durable goods for August 2009 fall 2.4% in August
• US Durable goods for August 2009 due out at 8:30am
• Having some technical difficulties so updates may be sporadic
• Usd/Jpy trades down to 90.00
• UK Q2 Final Total Business Investment
• Eurozone data below expectations
• Eur/Usd finds resistance at 1.4700
• German GfK Consumer Climate
• 9-25 Economic Calendar
• GBP/USD Breaks Down
• Fed’s Warsh on the Wire
• FBI arrested a Jordanian citizen in Texas for an attempted bombing in Dallas.

USDCHF tests 200 hour MA and trendline support at the 1.0290 to 1.0297 levels Posted: 25 Sep 2009 06:58 AM PDT The USDCHF has support and is testing the 200 hour MA and old trendline support line we have been following (see prior post) at the 1.0297 and 1.0290 levels respectively.  A move below this level will muddy the bullish waters a bit.  A move up to 1.0368 which is the low price from December 29, 2008, is the next upside target.  A move below the 1.0290 level will likely test the 100 hour MA again currently at the 1.0271.

Sept 25 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 25 Sep 2009 06:02 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A busy day in the Forex, to start off the last day of trading. We review the head and shoulders formation that has moved the GBP/USD to the downside over the past few days.

GBPUSD continues the fall but rebounds of double bottom today. Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:36 AM PDT The GBPUSD broke through neckline support yesterday at the 1.6164 area and fell sharply. The trend continued today with a new low being made at the 1.5915 level. This is the lowest level since June 8th when the price reached a low price of 1.5801 before rebounding sharply. On that day, the price closed at the 1.5974 level, the most recent low close . This is currently where the market is trading.  I will be watching this level today with intraday bias to the downside below while bias to the upside on a move higher.    The 1.5965 level is also a minor intraday support level on an intraday basis. This is the 61.8% retracement of the last intraday spike higher. The price is in a narrow range around these two levels.  However, the pair remains under pressure.   On the upside a move above 1.5974 would look toward resistance against the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.5999 and 1.6005 levels.   A move lower will target the 1.5940 level. The double low at 1.5915 should also provide support but do not fade breaks lower.

US Durable goods for August 2009 fall 2.4% in August Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:33 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders Fall 2.4% in August; Analysts Expected an Slight Increase in Orders. Core orders, excluding transportation remained neutral at 0.0%.

US Durable goods for August 2009 due out at 8:30am Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:07 AM PDT We will see the release of US Durable goods for August at 8:30am. Analysts are expecting a +0.3 gain with the core figure to come in at +0.9%. The core figure excludes transportation. Last months release for July, saw U.S. durable goods orders increase by the largest amount in two years according to a report released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. Durable goods orders in the United States advanced by 4.9% in July to a total of $168.4 billion after declining by a revised 1.3% in June. Durable goods orders have now increased in three of the last four months and July's data was spurred higher by a increase in aircraft orders. New orders for durable goods excluding transportation gained by 0.8% in July following a revised increase of 2.5 percent in June and marked the third straight monthly gain.

Having some technical difficulties so updates may be sporadic Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:01 AM PDT Just to let all those know.  We are experiencing some technical issues with the blog.  It does not effect the trading side, so no fear.  As a result, updates might be sporadic until the issue is cleared.

Usd/Jpy trades down to 90.00 Posted: 25 Sep 2009 03:15 AM PDT Usd/Jpy has been under pressure for most of the session and has just down to 90.00. It immediately traded up 20 pips to 90.20 after the fact. It is likely it will make another attempt to break below this psychological barrier. Usd/Jpy has not traded below 90.00 since Feb.12 of this year.

UK Q2 Final Total Business Investment Posted: 25 Sep 2009 01:34 AM PDT UK Q2 Final Total Business Investment q/q came in at -10.2%, better than the -10.4% expected. Y/y came in at -21.8%, weaker than the -18.4% expected. Mixed data out of UK leading to little movement in sterling at the moment as Gbp/Usd remains 1.6005-10.

Eurozone data below expectations Posted: 25 Sep 2009 01:07 AM PDT Eurozone M3 money supply y/y came in at 2.5%, below the 2.7% expectation. Italian retail sales came in at -0.4%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Eurozone private loans y/y came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Overall weak numbers for the Euro. Eur/Usd off about 10 pips to 1.4672 since data release.

Eur/Usd finds resistance at 1.4700 Posted: 24 Sep 2009 11:58 PM PDT Eur/Usd has recovered nicely off earlier low of 1.4614. It briefly traded above 1.4700, but seems to have run into some resistance. The 38.2 % Fibo lies at 1.4699 and 200 hour M/A not far off at 1.4709. If these levels can hold look for the pair to start another downward trend, maybe back down to 1.4630 area. A break above finds more resistance at 1.4729 which is the 100 hour M/A.

German GfK Consumer Climate Posted: 24 Sep 2009 11:03 PM PDT German GfK Consumer Climate came in at 4.3, stronger than the 3.9 expected and 3.7 prior reading. Eur/Usd relatively unchanged on positive news, currently trading at 1.4685.

9-25 Economic Calendar Posted: 24 Sep 2009 09:16 PM PDT

GBP/USD Breaks Down Posted: 24 Sep 2009 07:32 PM PDT After trading under considerable pressure the last 24 hours, following comments from the BOE’s King that a softer Sterling was helping rebalance the economy and that 2 major British banks were on the brink of collapse last October due to a liquidity shortfall (RBS & HBOS), the Pound continued lower and abruptly so after the 1.60 handle were apparently stops awaited. The Cable has recovered somewhat off the lows, but with equities continued to be pressured and the USD holding its bid, the short-term bottom could still be ahead. On the daily chart below we see support at the 38.2% retracement of the recent move to 1.70.

Fed’s Warsh on the Wire Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:12 PM PDT The Fed’s Warsh one of the more hawkish FOMC members has the following comments in regards to the US economy, that helped the USD continue its bid: Policy normalization is likely before the need becomes obvious. Normalization may need “greater force than customary.” Evidence of pick up in the economy, improvements in markets. Commented that we are in a critical transition period. Markets may signal growth and inflation before other indicators.

FBI arrested a Jordanian citizen in Texas for an attempted bombing in Dallas. Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:10 PM PDT FBI arrested a Jordanian citizen in Texas for an attempted bombing in Dallas.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA at the 1.4737 level
• Existing Home Sales fell to 5.1M rate
• GBPUSD moves below neckline support at 1.6161
• Sept 24 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDJPY trying to bottom on increased risk appetite
• Initial Claims better than expected
• Jobless claims due at 8:30. Existing Home sales at 10:00
• EURUSD benefits overnight while focus on selling is on the GBPUSD. EURGBP rises
• GBPUSD falls overnight. BOE King comments cited
• German Ifo business climate weaker than expectations
• Sterling tumbles on King’s commnets
• Eur/Usd above 100 hour M/A and 61.8 Fibo
• 9-24 Economic Calendar
• AUD/USD Hits Trendline
• AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m came out at 11.4%

EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA at the 1.4737 level Posted: 24 Sep 2009 07:08 AM PDT Look for sellers now against this level as the dollar finds a safe haven bid off the worse than expected housing data.  Support comes in at 1.4702 where the 200 hour MA is found.

Existing Home Sales fell to 5.1M rate Posted: 24 Sep 2009 07:02 AM PDT Lower than expected. However, inventories fell to 8.6 months which is better than 9.4 month supply.

GBPUSD moves below neckline support at 1.6161 Posted: 24 Sep 2009 06:39 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved below the neckline trendline in the daily chart at the 1.6161 level and have seen a move to new lows for the day at the 1.6143.  I would expect sellers against the 1.6161 level now with stops on moves probably back above the 1.6170 level.  A close below on the daily should lead to lower levels for the pair. The 1.6112 level is the first target below that 1.6026.  These are the lows from the neckline.  There are some who would measure a move down much lower. However, it is my opinion that more realistic step by step moves is warranted.    However, the bias is to the downside as long as the price can remain below the break level.

Sept 24 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 24 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Morning Commentary looks at the GBPUSD and the break of the Head and Shoulder neckline and MORE

USDJPY trying to bottom on increased risk appetite Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:51 AM PDT The USDJPY sold off sharply overnight, but has bounced off the lows. The move can be partly attributed to an increase in risk appetite which has given some of the Yen crosses a bid.  The pair is also back above trendline support at the 90.49 level.  This level should provide support today.  On the short term chart, the price is flirting with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently. That level comes in at the 90.65 level.  On move above this level, there should be resistance at the 90.83 level (38.2% of the days move down).  Above that, the market  should  look to target 90.95 (200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart).  A move back below 90.49 would not be welcomed.

Initial Claims better than expected Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:36 AM PDT The Inital Claims fell to 530K the lowest level in two months to 530K.  550 was expected.  This is showing a potential stabilization of the labor market.  However, the expectation is that the weekly claims need to fall to 400,000 in order to stabilize unemployment.  Nevertheless, the data is encouraging. The initial reaction has been a decline in the dollar. The EURUSD is up to the 1.4791  (high reached 1.4795).  There should be some resistance at this area.

Jobless claims due at 8:30. Existing Home sales at 10:00 Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:28 AM PDT The weekly Initial Claims are due at 8:30. Expectations are for a slight rise to 550 K from 545 K last week.  The Continuing Claims are expected to fall to 6183K from 6230K last week.  Both series have been improving but employment still remains a drag. At 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales are expected to improve to 5.35 M from 5.24M.

EURUSD benefits overnight while focus on selling is on the GBPUSD. EURGBP rises Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:06 AM PDT The EURUSD initally fell in todays early trading, falling below key support at the the 100 hour MA and the 50% retracement of the move up from Sept 21. The subsequent fall, however, was buffeted by the 200 hour MA which stopped the decline and started a rebound.  The pair has now moved back above the old 2009 high of 1.4766. There should be some additional upside resistance at the 1.4791 level from old highs and lows and closes..  Above 1.4800 we know the 1.4825 and 1.4866 level, with early sellers in the mid 40’s lining up ahead of the 1.4866 key resistance level.   On the downside, in addtion to support at the 1.4766 level, the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart above) comes in this morning at the 1.4736 level currently.  Below that the market is likely to target the 200 hour once again at the 1.4700 level (green line in chart above). Looking at the 5 minute chart, the bias is to the upside as the price has rebounded above the 100 bar MA.  The current level comes in at the 1.4750 level.  Eyeing this MA and using it as a support level to buy against, is also likely in the early trade today.   The EURUSD has been buoyed by buying in the EURGBP.  This in reaction to the BOE Kings comment on the GBPs value (i.e. weaker GBP would benefit economic rebalancing). The pair has reached the highest level since early April 2009.   The pairs price has also moved above the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the March 2009 high at the 0.9077 level

GBPUSD falls overnight. BOE King comments cited Posted: 24 Sep 2009 04:45 AM PDT The GBPUSD fell in the London trade as BOEs King said that a weaker pound would help rebalance the economy.  This led to a sharp fall in the GBPUSD toward trendline support at the neckline of the head and shoulder formation.  The neckline level comes in at the 1.6161 level. The low overnight reached 1.6168.  The subsequent bounce has taken GBPUSD back up to a high of 1.6220. There is some topside resistance at the 1.6235 level which should cause some initial resistance (see chart). Above that level look for the 38.2% retracement of the days range at the 1.6282 level to slow a move higher. On the downside, the 1.6185 level is likely to provide some support while a break of the 1.6160 neckline level should solicit some selling from longer term traders. Note the close is of importance for the Head and Shoulder formation. So if the pair falls, then bounces back higher above the level, be aware.  The market would not be doing what it is supposed to be doing.

German Ifo business climate weaker than expectations Posted: 24 Sep 2009 01:06 AM PDT German Ifo business climate came in at 91.3, weaker than the 92.0 expected. Current assessment came in at 87.0, weaker than the 87.7 expected. Eur/Usd came off about 15 pips from 1.4760 down to 1.4745. IFO’s Sinn goes on to say 2009 is seen as a catastrophic year with expectations on growth following large declines. Abberger states a sustainable recovery is questionable.

Sterling tumbles on King’s commnets Posted: 24 Sep 2009 12:44 AM PDT BOE’s King states a decline in Gbp will help UK economy rebalance. On this comment Gbp/Usd traded down to 1.6263 and Eur/Gbp up to .9069. cureently Gbp/Usd is trading at 1.6295 and Eur./Gbp at .9057.

Eur/Usd above 100 hour M/A and 61.8 Fibo Posted: 24 Sep 2009 12:08 AM PDT After a failed attempt to break below its 200 hour M/A much earlier on it seems Eur/usd has turned bullish as it closed the last hour of trading above its 100 hour M/A (1.4732) and 61.8% fibo (1.4755). The potential is there for a run above 1.4800, with earlier highs of 1.4844 not out of reach. If it does turn lower 1.4730 area should lend support with 100 hour M/A back in play and 50% fibo at 1.4727.

9-24 Economic Calendar Posted: 23 Sep 2009 09:06 PM PDT

AUD/USD Hits Trendline Posted: 23 Sep 2009 07:49 PM PDT The AUD/USD pair like most risk and commodity pairs took a tumble at the end of the day as commodities such as oil and copper moved lower, in conjunction with equities that couldn’t sustain the limited push higher following the FOMC meeting. Looking at the chart below we see the pair moved abruptly lower after the NY close and found some support at the trendline. Although the pair has rebounded some, it was unable to sustain the bounce it has received from better than prior New Home Sales in Australia or better New Zealand Consumer Confidence. As commodities continue to trade softer, it will be interesting to see if the trendline can support another move down. Liquidity and participation should be improved as Tokyo returns to work, however a break of the trendline could bring the 85 cent handle into play.

AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m came out at 11.4% Posted: 23 Sep 2009 06:05 PM PDT AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m came out at 11.4% much higher then prior month of 0.1%. Aud/Usd showing very reaction to the number trading at .8715.

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